[FrancesHinden]

I'm trying a new format for my 3NT play problems. To celebrate the switch to matchpoints, here it is as a poll.

Scoring: MP

1♦ P 1♥ P
1NT P 3NT

1NT = 14-17 Bal

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A medium-sized spade is led, to the 10 and king.
A spade is returned, which you win on dummy.
I'm going to stick you with a low diamond from dummy, 8, 9, Queen.
Third round of spades to which every one follows.
You cross to the ace of hearts, and cash the fourth spade discarding a diamond. Both opponents throw a heart.

Now you come of the first decision point.
Line 1: cash the ace of diamonds now, anticipating a possible minor suit squeeze (or KQ doubleton on your left).
Lines 2/3: hold on to the DA for now, as oppo don't know you have it.

You cross to the king of clubs and cash two more hearts, discarding a club and a diamond from hand. Both opponents follow (so hearts were orignally 4-4). On the last heart, RHO discards the 10 of diamonds if you didn't cash the ace of diamonds earlier, otherwise a low club. Your options are

Line 1a: discard a diamond from hand, a club is discarded on your left, now play for the minor suit squeeze to have worked (ace of clubs)
Line 1b: discard a diamond from hand, club discarded on your left, play a club towards hand and finesse (risking 9 tricks only)
Line 2: discard a diamond from hand and take the club finesse
Line 3a: discard the CJ from hand and play a diamond towards the A7 planning to finesse if RHO follows low.
Line 3b: discard the CJ from hand and cash the DA, playing for RHO to have been squeezed in the minors.

[hatchett]

LHO has led a spade from xxx and also has xxxx heart. He would probably have led a club from xxxx and may well have led one from Qxxx. There is a restrictive choice element to a club lead from xxx and he has chosen a spade despite partner not overcalling 1S, I therefore think (not with 100% conviction) that his most likely club holding is Qxx. I will play to squeeze LHO is the minors.

[cherdano]

I don't like taking a psychological line here, i.e. one that is technically inferior to another one, and only advantage is that defenders might make a mistake, or I might take the right guess after clues from the discards. Defenders just don't have enough pressure here for this to workout.
So 1b loses to 2, and 3b loses to 1a.

If LHO knows I will regularly have 4 spades on this auction, I will play him for at most 3 clubs, so he is 3433. So it is a guess between ♣Qxx, based on hatchett's restricted lead choice argument, and ♣xxx based on a priori odds. I will go with the a priori odds. Club finesse.

Arend

[toothbrush]

Line 1a for me.

I believe this is a clear 50% chance! I have no idea who has ♣Q. I do think LHO has ♦K because with 3-4-2-4 he would've led ♣ imo.
So LHO has: xxx-xxxx-KQx-?xx
And RHO: Kxx-xxxx-xx-?xxx

Of course I cashed ♦A, because I want to take the chance of ♦K to fall (LHO KQ or RHO Kx). ♣-finesse can wait until i have more information. I don't like to take a finesse too early in the game.

After 4♥, 4♠, 2♦, ♣K and a small ♣ from dummy (RHO following low), RHO remains with 1 card, obviously a ♣. LHO remains with 2 cards: the supposed ♦K and a ♣. Exactly 50% chance!

BUT when you take a losing finesse, you make 1 trick less than the others, for a zero-score... At matchpoints I prefer playing for a moyenne than to take a 'top or zero' 50% chance. With 51% (or more) I would take the finesse

btw I presume you played it against good players because they gave nothing away by playing ♠ again and again.

[cherdano]

toothbrush, on Jun 18 2006, 10:09 AM, said:

Of course I cashed ♦A, because I want to take the chance of ♦K to fall (LHO KQ or RHO Kx).

If RHO has ♦Kx, LHO played the queen from QTx...

[toothbrush]

cherdano, on Jun 18 2006, 03:13 AM, said:

toothbrush, on Jun 18 2006, 10:09 AM, said:

Of course I cashed ♦A, because I want to take the chance of ♦K to fall (LHO KQ or RHO Kx).

If RHO has ♦Kx, LHO played the queen from QTx...

Hmm indeed, that would've been silly by LHO... I didn't think about that.
So that makes you have only the extra chance of LHO having ♦KQ and RHO ♦Txx.

[Free]

I prefer a safe squeeze over a risky finesse, so I'll take line 1a. About positioning honours, I think Hatchett already said it all...