Posted 2003-November-17, 16:29
I agree with Rajeshwar. who seems to be always right on these play problems. To give a spade now seems to likey to run into down one when overcaller holds six spades and the two red aces.
If East has the heart ace, you will make no matter how you play, so figure overcaller has that card. The remaining key cards are the diamond ACE and QUEEN. If overcaller has the diamond ACE, leading up to the king wins. But what if EAST has that card. He will use the ace to behead the king, and if he finds a heart through you (and he maybe out of spades), you are sunk.
I see two alternative lines. One is to cash four rounds of clubs, and hope that WEST discard weakens his hand in some material (or non-material) way. If such winners are not needed for transportation, you will be surprised how often taking your side suit winners causes discard problems for your opponents. West discard a diamond from doubleton honor? That only helps. West discards a couple of hearts? Your problems are mostly over. If he discards too many spades, you can turn your attention back to spades.
The alternative play is a tatical one that might win even when it loses. Play a low diamond from dummy. This works unless EAST pops up with the diamond Queen from legth and switches to a heart, and EAST who bid 2S has four or more hearts to the ACE. That is long chance. First RHO unless he is genius will not popup with diamond honor, and LHO who bid spades in this day and age of two suited notrump overcalls is fairly unlikely to have a crappy spade suit and a long (4+ heart suit).
I believe I would run my clubs, and discard a diamond, but leading a low diamond from dummy has a lot to say for it.
Ben
--Ben--