[toothbrush]

Scoring: IMP

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Partner north opens 1♣, east bids 2♠ alerted as "weak". Because I play with a partner online that I never played with before, I decided to bid 3NT immediately.
Of course I prefered defending 2♠ doubled but I didn't know how partner would react on a double (hoping for pass from partner) or a pass (hoping for dbl from partner). You neither have any agreements about 3♦ being F or not so 3NT seems a reasonable possibility imo.

Anyway, my problem isn't how to bid but: HOW DO YOU PLAY ?

South leads ♠7 - ♠9 - ♠T - ♠A, now it's up to you.
Opponents' leading is standard (high-low from a doubleton).

I will give more information about the playing later.


PS I don't ask any comment about the bidding

[Free]

You're totally blocked, so need to play ♦A and let ♦J run to unblock ♦s. If this works you're home, if not, you can always try the ♣ finesse or ♥ finesse, whatever seems best for you.

[Codo]

Diamond to the ace and a diamond back (letting the jack run inf necessary) seems to have the best chance.

If the diamonds are 3-2 you must just avoid of loosing 4 Heart tricks or 3 H and 1 C together with the Diamond. If they are 4-1 and the single is the Ten or Queen, you are nearly home too.
If they are 4-1 with a small singelton, I would try the club finesse after winning the two rounds of D.

[toothbrush]

I'm probably missing something here, but why do you have to play ♦ against the odds here?? Playing ace and let the J run only wins when W has Tx! Playing small to the AJ for the finesse wins whenever W has Q second or third which is much more likely with this bidding

What I want to say is that this way of playing seems totally unlogical to me!

I checked it with the program "suitplay": for 6 tricks in ♦ you should start with 3 to the J!! 33,9130% chance for SIX tricks.
Safety play for 5 tricks: A and then J, when east follows low you also play low. 87,6087% chance for FIVE tricks.
Playing for maximum number of tricks: small to J, average of 5,1870 tricks

Because I didn't receive any 'evidence-based' opinions yet, I will ask my question more specific: how do you play, do you start with ♦ or with ♣ and how do you play your chosen suit ?

Please give a reasonable explanation with your answer and not just one line of how you would play.

[Free]

Suitplay doesn't care how much entry's you have to one or both hands. Here you only have 1 entry to your hand: ♠K. So you need to play ♦s this way to unblock them, and make 5 tricks (and with a little luck 6 tricks). A little pessimism is well placed at the bridge table: IF you finesse and IF ♦Q wins, you'll be stuck to dummy! How the hell do you plan to get to your hand to make your 5 ♦ tricks?

Btw, it was a V vs NV jump overcall with a suit at best QT8xxx. Would your RHO have any values in sidesuits?? That's another reason to place ♦Q with him...

[toothbrush]

I you only get 5 ♦-tricks, you'll need the ♣-finesse for your 9th trick... So why not taking ♣-finesse first, and when this works go for the safety play in ♦
When ♣-finesse doesn't work out, you need 6 tricks so finesse to the J. Entry's are no more a problem once ♣K is away.

[Winstonm]

Presumably RHO has made a vul vs nv weak jump overcall on: Q109xxx. To justify this risk it is my thinking that he is also marked with the heart Ace, giving him some holding such as:

Q109xxx
Axx
???
???

Holding QJ10xx of hearts, LHO may have preferred that lead to the spade anyway, so I would guage RHO to hold some heart honor as well as some shape.

Q109xxx
AJx
x(xx)
x(xx)

If the diamonds don't behave, I will need 4 clubs tricks; if the club hook is offside, I will need diamonds to behave.

So it seems best to find out the club position before anything else. I will lead the club 8 at trick 2 and run it. If this loses, I will have to finesse the diamond j and hope for the best. If the 8 wins, I continue with the Q. If the clubs are 4/1, the clubs will force 3 discards from RHO, solving my problems. If the clubs are 3/2 and LHO covers the second, I will cash the diamond ace and run the jack if uncovered by RHO.

[pclayton]

If I'm playing IMPs for my life, I will win the spade, and unblock the clubs, and play A♦, J♦. If the J is covered, I duck.

I toyed with the idea of leaving the clubs alone, but I don't think it has any material affect on my ability to get 9 tricks.

I think its better to win the 1st spade with the King, which is better on balance.

[toothbrush]

The way Winstonm explained is exactly the way I thought, so that's how I played it. I started with ♣8 for easts K, who proceeded ♠. Right now I immediately took the ♦-finesse to the J...
As you can see all the cards, you understand that I went 3 down...

Are there any reasons why you should play ♦ otherwise now (not the normal finesse)? I agree that it may have been better if I first cashed another ♣ to know about the 4-1 split. Imo even then it is still much more likely that east has shorter ♦ than west and I see absolutely no reason why east should have ♦Q.

Anyway, after the game I was blamed for bad play by my partner and my opponents. I fell really insulted because I thought -and still think- I had taken the best chance. That's why I need to know: did I play bad or was I just having bad luck?

Scoring: IMP

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[Winstonm]

[foo]

toothbrush, on Jun 3 2006, 03:46 PM, said:

♠J93♥K852♦AJ♣AT92

♠AK♥7♦K98532♣QJ83

Partner north opens 1♣, east bids 2♠ alerted as "weak". Because I play with a partner online that I never played with before, I decided to bid 3N immediately.
Of course I prefered defending 2♠ doubled but I didn't know how partner would react on a double (hoping for pass from partner) or a pass (hoping for dbl from partner). You neither have any agreements about 3♦ being F or not    so 3N seems a reasonable possibility imo.

Anyway, my problem isn't how to bid but: HOW DO YOU PLAY ?

South leads ♠7 - ♠9 - ♠T - ♠A, now it's up to you.
Opponents' leading is standard (high-low from a doubleton).

I will give more information about the playing later. 

I'm "playing fair", and ignoring the rest of this thread to make my 1st response.

You have 5 top tricks and need 4 more. C's can only provide 3 of these, so I might as well see if I can establish D's before I touch C's.

Dx->DA, then DJ from the board intending to run it if not covered.

LineA: DJ holds and D's split 2:3, I go back to my hand w/ SK and play DK.
When DQ drops I have 2S's+6D's+1C for 9 tricks.

LineB: DJ is covered, I cover with DK, D's are 32 and DT drops. Run D's for same tricks as above.

LineC: DJ is covered, I cover with DK, D's are 32 and DT does =not= drop. I immediately put another D on the table counting on LHO to have the HA and perhaps be out of S's. Now I need 2 C tricks or 1H + 1C in addition to 2S's + 5D's.

LineD: D's are x:QTxx and RHO does not cover DJ. After running DJ, I come back to my hand with SK and play DK. I now play Cx to the =CA=, since I can not afford to let RHO in (he is the "Danger Hand"). I'm counting on LHO to out of S's and to have the CK. I now have 6 tricks and need 3 more. I play the CT next and hopefully begin endplaying LHO over and over again (if by some miracle the CK is stiff, the hand becomes easy).

LineE: D's are QTxx:x and I find this out when I put the DJ on the felt ( ). I let LHO win the DQ and see what happens next.
E1: S return means win the SK, =never= risk letting RHO in again and go back to the strategy of repeatedly endplaying LHO.
E2: non S return makes things easier (even HA and then a H since I will still have S's stopped).

In almost all cases, I am avoiding the C finesse unless I absolutely need to take it since I am doing everything I can to minimize the risk of letting RHO in.

[Free]

foo, on Jun 5 2006, 07:06 AM, said:

You have 5 top tricks and need 4 more. C's can only provide 3 of these, so I might as well see if I can establish D's before I touch C's.

This is a very nice summarize of everything there is to this hand imo. But if the ♣ finesse looks too attractive and loses, you still have to gather more information about the hand before finessing ♦ blindly one way or another. If you take your first shot at 9 tricks with ♦, you'll be lucky not to have these problems with this deal, but if ♦s only provide for 5 tricks, you can still take a good guess (after running them) which finesse will work (or if you need to cash).

[toothbrush]

Free, on Jun 5 2006, 05:05 AM, said:

foo, on Jun 5 2006, 07:06 AM, said:

You have 5 top tricks and need 4 more.  C's can only provide 3 of these, so I might as well see if I can establish D's before I touch C's.

This is a very nice summarize of everything there is to this hand imo. But if the ♣ finesse looks too attractive and loses, you still have to gather more information about the hand before finessing ♦ blindly one way or another. If you take your first shot at 9 tricks with ♦, you'll be lucky not to have these problems with this deal, but if ♦s only provide for 5 tricks, you can still take a good guess (after running them) which finesse will work (or if you need to cash).

I like this analysis MUCH more than our first conversation, Free.

I totally agree that it would have been better cashing 2 rounds of ♣ before to decide how to play ♣ (not 3 rounds because then you have communication problems)
After that, I think it is likely that you can make a view of RHO's hand, especially when he would have dropped 2 hearts (but -as he is a good player- i think it's more likely he would have dropped two spades): ♠QTxxxx ♥Axx ♦??? ♣K

Does RHO need ♦Q for his bidding? No, since he promised a weak hand.
Can he have ♦Q? Yes, because ♣K isn't worth much: he could have downgraded that...

So, in fact, the problem is: does west have the Q doubleton or the T doubleton??? Seems like a blind guess to me (50% chance for winning).

It remains obvious to me that you start with taking the ♣ finesse, as the chance of ♣K singleton at RHO is much smaller than ♦T falling doubleton at LHO. I mean that you should have much more certainty for playing ♣ unusual than for playing ♦ unusual. You need the ♣ finesse anyway when you get only 5 tricks in ♦. Once you know that ♣K is at RHO, the only problem is to take a good decision in ♦.

[foo]

Free, on Jun 5 2006, 05:05 AM, said:

foo, on Jun 5 2006, 07:06 AM, said:

You have 5 top tricks and need 4 more.  C's can only provide 3 of these, so I might as well see if I can establish D's before I touch C's.

This is a very nice summarize of everything there is to this hand imo. But if the ♣ finesse looks too attractive and loses, you still have to gather more information about the hand before finessing ♦ blindly one way or another. If you take your first shot at 9 tricks with ♦, you'll be lucky not to have these problems with this deal, but if ♦s only provide for 5 tricks, you can still take a good guess (after running them) which finesse will work (or if you need to cash).

To me, the most important thing about this hand is the recognition that RHO is the Danger Hand. You can only afford for RHO to get in as long as you have S stops.

That means never take any finesse into RHO that you can avoid.

Which means the C finesse for the CK is a Bad Idea.

I've since looked at the full board and seen what a perverse WJO RHO has made.

Bottom line here is that there is no legitimate way to make 3N if RHO makes the natural HQ lead from QJTxx at any point when LHO is in.

As the cards lie, 5m is the game you want to be in. Question is, can you get to it when it is right and play 3N when that is right?

If so, then you are well on your way to being a good bidder.

[toothbrush]

LHO is as dangerous as RHO as he can play ♥... It's obvious to me that RHO has the ♥A.

btw I said I didn't want ANY comment about the bidding

[foo]

toothbrush, on Jun 5 2006, 06:59 AM, said:

So, in fact, the problem is: does west have the Q doubleton or the T doubleton??? Seems like a blind guess to me (50% chance for winning).

It remains obvious to me that you start with taking the ♣ finesse, as the chance of ♣K singleton at RHO is much smaller than ♦T falling doubleton at LHO. I mean that you should have much more certainty for playing ♣ unusual than for playing ♦ unusual. You need the ♣ finesse anyway when you get only 5 tricks in ♦. Once you know that ♣K is at RHO, the only problem is to take a good decision in ♦.

1= It is not a "blind guess". 6+ out of 13 of RHO's cards are known to be S's. Therefore any non S card is more likely to be in LHO's hand unless or until other information changes things.

2= C's are not bringing 3N home, so playing on them doesn't help you as much as playing D's potentially does. In addition, since the C hook is very risky, you want to put it off as long as possible and hopefully avoid it all together. All of this argues for playing D's before C's.
Given the situation, the best line in D's is as I've stated for the reasons I've given. Suit combination tools like Suit Play do not analyze the play in the context of an entire board.

3= Never take any finesse you can avoid. Never, ever, take any finesse into the danger hand you can avoid.

[foo]

toothbrush, on Jun 5 2006, 07:05 AM, said:

LHO is as dangerous as RHO as he can play ♥... It's obvious to me that RHO has the ♥A.

btw I said I didn't want ANY comment about the bidding

If RHO opponent has the HA, you are never supposed to make this hand.
Therefore, you must assume that LHO has the HA.

My bidding comment was =not= about the bidding on this board, but about the unfortunate nasty tendency many players have of not usually (or ever in some cases) considering 5m a legitimate potential contract.

I have made no comments about the bidding on this specific board. I will now.

You did a very reasonable thing given that you were playing with a pickup pard of unknown to you skill level and did not want to risk a bidding disaster.

[Free]

foo, on Jun 5 2006, 01:21 PM, said:

If RHO opponent has the HA, you are never supposed to make this hand. Therefore, you must assume that LHO has the HA.

You can duck the first 3 ♥s, where's the problem? ♥Q doesn't need to be covered... If opponents start with 3 rounds of ♥, then ♥K becomes the 9th trick and you only need 5 tricks in ♦ anymore. That's a lot easier imo.

[foo]

Free, on Jun 5 2006, 07:26 AM, said:

foo, on Jun 5 2006, 01:21 PM, said:

If RHO opponent has the HA, you are never supposed to make this hand.  Therefore, you must assume that LHO has the HA.

You can duck the first 3 ♥s, where's the problem? ♥Q doesn't need to be covered... If opponents start with 3 rounds of ♥, then ♥K becomes the 9th trick and you only need 5 tricks in ♦ anymore. That's a lot easier imo.

That might work wonderfully if H's are 5:3 and LHO doesn't have a side entry...

Make H's 4:4 or give LHO an entry (say the DQ or DT...) and you are going minus.

Since the odds favor LHO having both long H's and a side entry, this ducking 3 rounds of H's plan may not be best...

[Free]

Why not? Unless he leads from AQJTx, it works. And if ♥ are 4-4, then you already know 10 cards from RHO. Cashing ♣A becomes really attractive then to see how the ♦s should be played... Btw, if RHO has 6♠ from QT8xxx and 4 ♥ from Axxx, he would've overcalled 1♠.

I really don't see why LHO needs to have ♥A to make this contract