Al_U_Card, on May 21 2006, 08:42 AM, said:
| Dealer: | East | | Vul: | N/S | | Scoring: | MP | | | RHO opens 2♦ in first seat. Just a club game against one of the better pairs. This is the penultimate board and you are in the lead (60%). How to proceed? |
I agree w/ Roland that this hand is not good enough to X then bid C's.
Give Opener all of the remaining D values: AQJxxx
There's 6HCP for a 1st seat WvsR 2D opening.
Assuming a 5-10 HCP range, the average Weak Two by a disciplined pair will be ~ a Q stronger.
{if the Weak Two in question has a range stronger than 5-10, this hand is no problem.}
SA, HK, and CK are likely to be out. GOP rates to have 1 of them and another 50% of the time.
SQ, SJ, HJ, and CQ are the "filler HCP" likely to be out. GOP rates to have 2 of these cards.
That means our hand is good for 10 tricks ~50% of the time.
{Opener could also have a maximum Weak Two, in which case the 3 level is likely to be the limit of the board.}
If We have a H fit, we have a very real chance of missing 4H here.
OTOH,
a= if We do not have a H fit, GOP needs significant extras for Us to make 5C.
b= 3N seems like a very long shot, and
c= "The Rabbi", the stiff K, does not rate to be a good holding on offense but is likely to take a trick on defense.
...and some say natural weak 2D bids are not effective. Certainly has given us a problem here!
3C is the safe alternative that unfortunately has a decent chance of Us missing a game. Especially if we have a H fit.
if 3N is =not= To Play and instead shows H+C, =and= you feel like taking the risk, that is another possible alternative.
Pick your poison based on things we do not know here in the forums.