[kfgauss]

3rd seat, all white, BAM. You hold:

J984 K3 AK10 10864

P 1S* P 1N**
2H P P 2S
P P ?

*: 1S is 10-15 (they play precision)
**: 1N is semi-forcing

Your call?

[jchiu]

I'm punching it. My BAM experience shows that punching semi-normal contracts that end up down one is winning BAM. I certainly expect 2♠ to fail, and expect that the opponents are in a 5-2 spade fit. I also expect that most of the time we can make 2NT or 3♥, defending 2♠x has a reasonable shot at +300 instead. My only reservation about doubling is that 2♠x may only go for 100, leading to a loss when our counterparts have made a partscore. But I certainly don't want to be +100 from 2♠ undoubled. Getting robbed is not fun ...

[pbleighton]

Tough problem!

I wish I knew how the opps played their trump raises, and what the range was for 1M-2M. I have a sneaking suspicion that the 2S bidder is less than 8 with with 3 spades (or maybe 2 - you might risk this in BAM opposite a limited opener).

Double and 3H attract. I choose 3H, for no particular reason.

Peter

[mcphee]

The thing about double is you may not beat 2S and have punished partner for his pre balance. If double is not 100% penalty and more of a competitive bid, I choose dble, if not I like 2N.

[foo]

kfgauss, on May 8 2006, 02:27 AM, said:

3rd seat, all white, BAM. You hold:

J984 K3 AKT T864

P 1S* P 1N**
2H P P 2S
P P ?

*: 1S is 10-15 (they play precision)
**: 1N is semi-forcing

Your call?

Pass.

S's are likely 4:2 or 4:1, you have a likely trump trick, your values are in your short suits, your fit with pard is modest given the auction, and We have at most ~22 HCP given the auction.

Also, bear in mind that it is easier for Forcing Club pairs than for "natural" pairs to decide when to throw the Red Card on the table in this auction. The time to really get in a Forcing Club pair's auction is when They open 1C or 1D, not when They open 1M or in NT.

Both common sense and the "LTT" (in quotes because it is -not- a law) say our best chance for a good score is to defend 2S rather than bid to the 3level.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

Pass, wtp?

Partner would have opened with 2H,
if he did hold a 6 card suit, ... unless
certain suit quality standards would
be not met.
So 3H means, either you will play a 7 card
suit fit on the 3 level, or have a rotten suit
as trump.

They dont have a guranteed 8 card fit,
and you know trumps does not break for them,
try to go plus, defeating 2S.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[Free]

I also pass, at normal tempo, why tell opps to finesse my ♠J out of me???

[kfgauss]

pbleighton, on May 14 2006, 12:23 PM, said:

Tough problem!

I wish I knew how the opps played their trump raises, and what the range was for 1M-2M.  I have a sneaking suspicion that the 2S bidder is less than 8 with with 3 spades (or maybe 2 - you might risk this in BAM opposite a limited opener).

Double and 3H attract.  I choose 3H, for no particular reason.

Peter

By passed hand, their 1N is semiforcing, and they play drury, so I don't think they put bad raises through 1N (drury decreases the upper limit of the single raise somewhat, and then the fact that you want 1N to be semif. means you probably shouldn't bid it with bad raises).

Here was the full hand (not that one hand necessarily proves anything):

Scoring: BAM

---

I doubled, led ♦A and it made 2 easily. The ♥K makes it harder, but they can still make (on some lines West is strip-squeezed in clubs).

Andy

[han]

Easy pass, I've seen the hands.

[jchiu]

Despite the actual hand, I still think that double is the percentage call at BAM. This particular hand makes 2♠ because declarer had enough top tricks to execute a trump endplay on you or a stripsqueeze on partner depending on his line. On the other hand, I showed the West hand to several players and they reacted "Pass, WTP?". With this subminimum 2♥ overcall, declarer still has to struggle to make 2♠.

I posted a risk-reward analysis of double in the case I thought it was our hand (and it would be so with all of my partners and correspondents above). For cases where the hand is evenly split, the following analysis is similar. Risk-reward is in our favor if our teammates are playing 2/1 and have the auction 1♠-1NT!; 2X-2♠; Pass. Also, if they are not having this auction, then the downside of letting them make 2♠ doubled is minimal. Doubling loses a half board if they can stop in 2♠ making or 3m making, and [really, the following is negligible] a full board if they can either make 2NT or make overtricks in 2♠ or 3m. If our teammate passes in second chair, or if my partner's counterpart opens 2♥, I doubt our teammates can effectively stop on a dime in 2♠ or 3m more than half the time. They will either have sold out to 1NT/2♥/3♥, or have come in the auction on shaded values and ended up too high. I certainly would have holding variants of the North-South cards at BAM.