[FrancesHinden]

Another hand from a league match, 28 boards IMPS converted to VPs.
At the other table I was North, I opened 1D and the auction continued 4H x all pass. So there will be a swing here:

Scoring: IMP

P 4♥ P P
x P 4♠ P
P P

---

5 of hearts lead to the Ace and your King.
Queen of hearts, ruff, 3 of hearts.
Opponents play MUD leads (middle card from 3 low, top of a doubleton). Systemically the way to show 3 cards is to play Middle, Up, Down in that order. But LHO may not feel completely obliged to complete his count signal once you have ruffed. He may have started with a doubleton, he may not.

You draw trumps in 3 rounds, LHO having Kxx.
Plan the rest of the play. If you decide to play for clubs 4-1, make sure you haven't run out of entries to hand!

[hatchett]

I play a diamond to the Q. If it loses to the ace and a diamond comes back I duck. If LHO wins the second round of diamonds and plays a third round, I win in dummy (making if diamonds are 3/3) cross to hand on the club A and play the last spade squeezing LHO if he is 44 in the minors.

If RHO wins the second diamond and plays a heart this squeezes his partner if he started 44 in the minors.

If the diamond to the Q wins, I duck a diamond. If RHO wins this cheaply and plays a heart I ruff and take the double club finesse playing RHO for 2740 or 2731 if LHO follows or 2830 if LHO shows out on the third round of hearts. If LHO has ducked the diamond ace smoothly with a 3343 shape or similar I congratulate my opponents and move on to the next board.

Alternatively after a diamond to the Q holds, I could play club A and pay off to just two shapes for RHO; 2731 or 2821 with a small singleton club. This may well be a better line against good opposition since with a small club singleton they may well have switched at trick two. Against weak opposition I play them not to duck the diamond A, of course!

[Codo]

You surely have good teammates, which will not pass opposite a game with no/small defence. I think a lot of players will take an insurance of 5 Heart after this bidding with the slightest excuse to do so.

So I believe, that his hand is something like Kxx,xx,Axx??,JTx??. This gives the 4 Heart bidder xx;AQJTxxx and three cards in the minors.

So I play a club to the ace and a diamond to the King. If this loose, I decided wrong and hope to get the clubs right by cashing the high diamond first to get a count from rho.
If the King of D wins the trick, I play 3 more rounds of club. If they are 4-1, as expected, Lho must play away from his Ace of Diamond... hopefully.

[winkle]

I'd duck the first diamond, then win return and knock out the diamond ace. If their return is a heart I'll ruff and pitch a club from dummy. I think this ensures the contract, assuming: righty has at least seven hearts, has no void, and didn't preempt with a one level opening bid (i.e. no diamond ace).

[FrancesHinden]

No-one else interested?
I don't know what the right answer is, by the way (well, I know what happened at the table, but that's different). It's a very frustrating hand, because if only you could see all four hands you'd make it easily.

Thanks for the replies so far. The only comment I have is that if you gave
xx
AQJ10xxx(x)
Ax(x)
x(x)

as an opening bid problem in second seat at favourable, I bet a lot of people would open it 4H. I probably wouldn't (1H for me most of the time), but I'm not on your right. You don't know your RHO's tendencies well enough to know, nor does your LHO as they aren't a regular partnership.

So I'm not madly keen on a line that goes loads and loads off when RHO has the DA and clubs are 3-2.....

[FrancesHinden]

hatchett, on May 9 2006, 12:09 PM, said:

I play a diamond to the Q. If it loses to the ace and a diamond comes back I duck. If LHO wins the second round of diamonds and plays a third round, I win in dummy (making if diamonds are 3/3) cross to hand on the club A and play the last spade squeezing LHO if he is 44 in the minors.

What do you do if a diamond to the Queen loses and a heart comes back?

[Winstonm]

Assuming I'm in hand after drawing trump, I lead a diamond to the king. If that loses and a heart comes back, I pitch low diamonds from both hands, win any continuation in hand and play off the diamond Q, playing for a club/diamond squeeze against LHO.

If the diamond king wins, I play one high club in dummy and then a club to hand in order to play the last spade. I will assume LHO started with 4/4 in the minors as RHO did not try for a diamond ruff, so the last spade will execute a delayed duck squeeze in diamond/clubs - I hope.

Down how many?

Winston

[foo]

pa-(4H)-pa-pa;
X-pa-4S-allpass.

♠A93♥42♦K763♣KQ94

♠QJT72♥K♦Q82♣A873

H5, 2, A*, K
3, 4, HQ, r*
x, 3, x, SQ*
x, 9*, x, Sx
K, SA*, H discard?, T

leaving
♠-♥-♦K763♣KQ94

♠J♥-♦Q82♣A873

We have 8 guaranteed tricks and either need to get 2 D's or 1C + 1D in addition to get to 10 tricks.

RHO evidently has AQJTxxxx for their 2nd seat Red 4H opening.
Since Dummy has the H2, and the H5 then H3 from LHO is consistent with LHO starting with H53 tight, I see no reason to doubt RHO's H Length.

S's were Kxx:xx

Evidently LHO is 32?? and RHO is 28??
LHO =3244 and RHO =2821 is the most likely layout.

The "customary" range for a 4M opening is 3-8 HCP, which means RHO should not usually have the DA. In addition, LHO has more Vacant Spaces to hold the DA than RHO does. Both pieces of evidence suggest that LHO has the DA.

So...
C4 -> CA If RHO drops the CJ or CT or shows they started with a C void (makng opponents =3235 : =2830), you should be home free.

Assuming none of that happens, you are playing C's to be JTxx:x
C7 -> toward the board. LHO does not necessarily know where the C8 is.
Does LHO cover?
If Yes, duck it. Now all of LHO's options are bad ones.
Else No, run the C7

Hope this is useful.

[hatchett]

Quote

I play a diamond to the Q. If it loses to the ace and a diamond comes back I duck. If LHO wins the second round of diamonds and plays a third round, I win in dummy (making if diamonds are 3/3) cross to hand on the club A and play the last spade squeezing LHO if he is 44 in the minors. 


What do you do if a diamond to the Queen loses and a heart comes back?

I may as well discard a diamond and ruff the next heart. It's not really going to tell me anything useful in all likelihood though. I won't take the double club finesse unless I have a complete count, it too much of a position I'd rather make all the time when clubs are 3-2 or when RHO has a stiff honour.

[hatchett]

Quote

Assuming none of that happens, you are playing C's to be JTxx:x
C7 -> toward the board. LHO does not necessarily know where the C8 is.
Does LHO cover?
If Yes, duck it. Now all of LHO's options are bad ones.

He'll be very upset when he covers and it wins and he started with JTx club. I don't think you can base your line on just one shape for RHO.

Quote

Hope this is useful.

I don't think it is very useful

[mikeh]

I would win the 3rd ♠ in dummy (which they probably force me to do anyway) and lead a ♦ to the Queen.... trying as best I can to ignore the inference that LHO wins and returns a ♥

If the Q holds, then I play a ♦ up, and duck. If RHO wins this cheaply, he will probably exit a ♥.

At that stage, I will 'know' the approximate shape: placing RHO with at least 3♦, 2 ♠'s and whatever number of ♥ he has... if 8, then I have a virtual lock: ruff the ♥ and, when RHO shows out, low ♣ to the 9.

If LHO shows in, so that RHO is 2=7 in the majors, I will assume a stiff ♣ (note: if LHO has ducked twice from AJxx or A10xx in ♦, I will remember him/her ), and, once again, the percentage play is the 1st round ♣ hook (I lack the entries to cash the A first, to guard against stiff honour on my right.. the odds are 3-2 that RHO's stiff is an x, increased somewhat by the chance of RHO being 2=7=4=0).

If the ♦Q is taken by the Ace on my left, and a ♥ back, which is the sequence posed by Frances, I will 'know' that LHO began with 7 minor suit cards.

I can pitch a ♦ from both hands without pain, but RHO will plug away with a 4th round of ♥, which I have to ruff... and I have no useful information as to the lay of the minor suits. LHO is pitching a ♦ no matter what, and I have to pitch from dummy. No minor suit squeeze works on this layout: if LHO guards ♣, then RHO guards ♦. If LHO is the only opp who guards ♦, then ♣ are 3-2.

So I will play for that ♣ layout if LHO wins the first ♦ and returns a ♥.

If LHO wins the 1st ♦ and returns a ♦, I duck it. If LHO holds the trick, then I win whatever he plays next (presumably another ♦). Either ♦ are 3-3 or LHO has 4: in either case, I am home.

If RHO wins the 2nd ♦ and returns a ♥, I ruff. If LHO follows (highly unlikely), I pitch a ♣ from dummy, playing for either ♦ 3-3 or an original 3-2 ♣ break... losing to RHO being 2=7=4=0

If LHO fails on the 3rd ♥, he has to pitch a minor: and now I can claim: rho had only 2 minor suit cards so LHO has just been squeezed in the minors.

[foo]

hatchett, on May 10 2006, 12:42 PM, said:

Quote

Assuming none of that happens, you are playing C's to be JTxx:x
C7 -> toward the board. LHO does not necessarily know where the C8 is.
Does LHO cover?
If Yes, duck it. Now all of LHO's options are bad ones.

He'll be very upset when he covers and it wins and he started with JTx club. I don't think you can base your line on just one shape for RHO.

Quote

Hope this is useful.

I don't think it is very useful

The snide personal comment was neither deserved nor necessary.

My given line does not assume "just one shape for RHO".

Assuming the rest of count on the hand is correct (and it very likely is)
If C's are 3:2, then D's are 5:1 (opponents are =3253 : =2812) and LHO is even more likely to hold the DA.

The line I gave is my attempt to maximize the chances that you get (4 C's + 1 D) or (3 C's + 2 D's) in order to get 10 tricks given Our hands and the information we have.

There may be a higher percentage line than the one I presented.
Present one and Prove it!

[winkle]

FrancesHinden, on May 10 2006, 10:28 AM, said:

So I'm not madly keen on a line that goes loads and loads off when RHO has the DA and clubs are 3-2.....

Fair enough. Certainly if righty has seven hearts one can argue he's more likely to have a prime card on the outside than not. And based on the heart spots I think it's quite likely that hearts are 7-3 rather than 8-2.

My current goal is to pick up all cases where righty is 2722 or 2731, with or without the ace of diamonds. I don't see a way to do that at the point you give the problem, but how about the following:

Ruff the second heart and play SQ, spade to 9, then diamond the the Q. If lefty wins and continues a heart, I ruff in hand and play DK, diamond. Either diamonds or clubs have to be breaking.

If lefty wins and does not continue a heart, I can afford to duck a diamond. Either diamonds will break or clubs will break or lefty will be squeezed.

If the DQ wins, I'd duck a diamond. Assuming no void I think I can handle all cases there also (even if lefty ducked from AJxx).

So I think this line not only picks up 2722 and 2731 (my original goal), but also 2821 one as well.

I haven't thought about the cases when lefty might have two spades. In practice lefty is unlikely to pop the SK on the second spade unless he has Kx, so I should be able to adjust accordingly.

[FrancesHinden]

winkle, on May 10 2006, 07:47 PM, said:

My current goal is to pick up all cases where righty is 2722 or 2731, with or without the ace of diamonds.
...
So I think this line not only picks up 2722 and 2731 (my original goal), but also 2821 one as well.

Yes, I'm looking for a line that picks up all 2722, 2731 and 2821 (and 2812 while we're at it).

I was debating this two rounds of trumps, diamond to the queen line earlier and thought it didn't work. But I might have been wrong - it didn't occur to me at the time to play more diamonds without playing the third trump.

I'll buy that LHO probably won't insert the SK from Kxx on the second round.

My other thought is more of a defensive one. If you were looking at this 4H opener with a singleton club, wouldn't 100% of defenders switch to their singleton at trick 2? It looks wildly unlikely to cost (the actual layout must be about the only one when it does, unless declarer is very short of entries to hand), and it's a nice easy way of beating the contract if partner has the minor suit aces - hardly impossible on the auction. So I wonder if all of this debate is a waste of time, and it's "obvious" that clubs are 3-2 all along.

But the thinking is good for us.

[hatchett]

Quote

The snide personal comment was neither deserved nor necessary.

Sorry if you found it snide, but there is no point in ducking a club if LHO plays an honor on the second round, you are either losing a trick to a 3-2 split or LHO can painlessly continue another club if he started with JTxx.

Quote

RHO evidently has AQJTxxxx for their 2nd seat Red 4H opening.

It's a GREEN 4H opening I don't think assuming RHO has 8 hearts is valid.

Quote

There may be a higher percentage line than the one I presented.
Present one and Prove it!

I've already given my line

Quote

My other thought is more of a defensive one. If you were looking at this 4H opener with a singleton club, wouldn't 100% of defenders switch to their singleton at trick 2? It looks wildly unlikely to cost (the actual layout must be about the only one when it does, unless declarer is very short of entries to hand), and it's a nice easy way of beating the contract if partner has the minor suit aces - hardly impossible on the auction. So I wonder if all of this debate is a waste of time, and it's "obvious" that clubs are 3-2 all along.

I pointed this out in my original reply and think it's pretty compelling. Also beats it if partner has a trump trick such as QTx and the club ace.

[foo]

FrancesHinden, on May 10 2006, 02:29 PM, said:

winkle, on May 10 2006, 07:47 PM, said:

My current goal is to pick up all cases where righty is 2722 or 2731, with or without the ace of diamonds. 
...
So I think this line not only picks up 2722 and 2731 (my original goal), but also 2821 one as well.

Yes, I'm looking for a line that picks up all 2722, 2731 and 2821 (and 2812 while we're at it).

I was debating this two rounds of trumps, diamond to the queen line earlier and thought it didn't work. But I might have been wrong - it didn't occur to me at the time to play more diamonds without playing the third trump.

I'll buy that LHO probably won't insert the SK from Kxx on the second round.

My other thought is more of a defensive one. If you were looking at this 4H opener with a singleton club, wouldn't 100% of defenders switch to their singleton at trick 2? It looks wildly unlikely to cost (the actual layout must be about the only one when it does, unless declarer is very short of entries to hand), and it's a nice easy way of beating the contract if partner has the minor suit aces - hardly impossible on the auction. So I wonder if all of this debate is a waste of time, and it's "obvious" that clubs are 3-2 all along.

But the thinking is good for us.

Well, if for some reason you have a strong reason to suspect RHO Lied and only has 7 H's...

You know S's are Kxx:xx so the reasonable possibilities are:
=3343 : =2722
=3334 : =2731
=3352 : =2713
=3325 : =2740 (some would argue this is not reasonable)
=3361 : =2704 (some would argue this is even more not reasonable)
=3244 : =2821
=3253 : =2812

Of the 5 "reasonable" cases, 3/5 of them have C's breaking 3-2
Now the best percentage is to to play the first 5 tricks as previously posted,
Then play CK,
a) if RHO did not drop a C honor play CQ, then CA, Cx in such a way as to end in your hand.

b ) else if RHO did drop a C honor, you play Cx -> CA hoping for Hxxx:H or xxx:JT or some more prosaic 3-2 (RHO was messing with your head)
then either cash out (C's 3-2) ending in hand or take the marked hook ending up in Dummy (hxxx:h).

Assuming C's were 3-2 or hxxx:h, you now only need 1 D trick.
Even if we ignore the bidding, in all of these cases, LHO is more likely to have the DA.
So you put a D honor on the table...

If you want to cater to both 3-2 C's and C's 4:1, you are going to have to give up on on picking up C's JTxx:x

[winkle]

FrancesHinden, on May 10 2006, 02:29 PM, said:

My other thought is more of a defensive one. If you were looking at this 4H opener with a singleton club, wouldn't 100% of defenders switch to their singleton at trick 2?

I think it's reasonable for righty to adopt a forcing defense with a hand such as xx AQJTxxx Axx x. For all he knows declarer can be in a 4-3 fit.