The main problem with running the
♣10 is that, should it lose to the Jack or even if it drives out the King, you are very short of entries to establish and enjoy the
♣.
But consider losing to the Jack, and back comes a
♠. I assume we pitch a
♦ but now how do we come back to our hand to play the
♣A and then guess whether the K is tripleton (exit low) or the 9 is tripleton (exit the Q)? If we cross in
♦ then even if we get the
♣ right, we will still be down. The opps will have won 3 black tricks and by exiting a
♠ (LHO) or a
♦ (RHO) they will stick us on dummy, forced to surrender a trick to the
♥ K even if it is onside.
Losing to the K improves our chances: back a
♠, now we come to our hand in
♦ and establish our long
♣, but we still lose another
♣ trick: LHO cannont hold KJ9 if he won the 10 with the K, and RHO cannot have J9x or he would have covered the 10. And whoever wins the 2nd defensive
♣ trick puts us in dummy and the defence gets the
♥K.
So if the
♣ 10 forces the K, we do NOT set up our long
♣: we win LHO's assumed
♠ in dummy and lead a
♥ to the Queen. If it wins or if RHO pops the K, we have 10 tricks. If it loses, we play for a minor suit squeeze on RHO.
However, running the 10
♣ requires misdefence, albeit perhaps easy to make misdefence: would/should RHO cover with Jxxx?
We can improve our chances, if we lose the 1st
♣ to the J, by trying to get back to our hand in
♥ (assuming a
♠ exit): if the K is onside, then the opps can take it and give us our 2nd
♥ trick or duck it and lose it. If the
♥ is offside, we have compounded our problems, since they can now exit in
♥.
My line: win the 2nd
♠, play a
♣ to the Q. If it loses, and a
♥ comes back, I have to duck (presumably losing) and I now play for a minor suit squeeze on east: the count will have been rectified for me.
If a
♠ comes back, win, pitching a
♣ and lead a
♥, hoping for the K onside and a minor squeeze as before
If the
♣ hook wins, I am up to 9 tricks and have a choice of plays for 10. I think I would exit a low
♣, pitching a
♠ from dummy: I would not want to play A and a
♣ because I am squeezing dummy. I have not worked out all of the permutations but I think the worst case depends on the
♥K being onside.
I have not tried to cover all the possibilities (thus I have not discussed LHO winning the
♣K at trick 3 and making the unlikely return of a minor
)
'one of the great markers of the advance of human kindness is the howls you will hear from the Men of God' Johann Hari
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