[cherdano]

Scoring: IMP

1♣-3♦-X-P
4♦-P-4♥-P
4♠-AP

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Edit: Lead is ♦K.

This hand was shown to me with the comment that by empirical evidence, it seemed to show the difference between 1st and 2nd league players in Germany.

I suppose away from the table we are all 1st league players?

(I strongly suggest trying this yourself before reading the answers.)

Arend

[Gerben42]

Before I tell you my solution you tell me the lead.

[Codo]

I would play the ace of club, there round of spades and the club finesse.
This will win, if clubs are 3-1 or 2-2 with the Q onside and the spades 4-2 or when the spades are 3-3.

But I had played 3. league, so I had just to think about how to make 6 club. I had handled the clubs in the same way....

[david_c]

Codo, on Apr 3 2006, 03:20 PM, said:

I would play the ace of club, there round of spades and the club finesse.

Me too. That can't be the answer though surely, what are we missing I wonder?

[whereagles]

david_c, on Apr 3 2006, 02:39 PM, said:

Codo, on Apr 3 2006, 03:20 PM, said:

I would play the ace of club, there round of spades and the club finesse.

Me too. That can't be the answer though surely, what are we missing I wonder?

Finesse loses and trumps are 4-2? You're now forced and end up down. I could be wrong, though.. just skimmed through it.

My 2-second-solution is try a spade up and finesse a club on the way back. If opps play two rounds of diamonds, I'll let go two hearts. (Now they *might* have a club ruff coming, but I'll risk that.) Later, I'll overtake the last spade and draw all trumps.

[FrancesHinden]

I must be a second league player because I can't spot a 100% winning line.
Assuming we start with ace of diamonds, ace of clubs, ace of spades, here are some continuations

i) Three rounds of spades, club finesse.
ii) Two rounds of spades, club finesse.
iii) One round of spades, club finesse

iv)-vi) As above, but don't cash the CA first

Now, we should now from RHO's card at trick one whether diamonds are 7-2 or 6-3. I don't think I can commit to the right line without knowing that. Let's suppose they are 7-2, which makes the hand more fun. Let's also suppose that spades aren't 5-1 (we probably would have been doubled) and clubs aren't 4-0.

i) Needs spades 3-3 or the CQ onside.
ii) Goes wrong if clubs are 2-2 with the queen offside. I can discard on diamonds and eventually ruff in dummy, but can't get back to hand to draw trumps. (If LHO ruffs the second club let's trust trumps were 3-3 all along).
iii) Gains over (ii) when I lose to the Qx club and trumps are 3-3 (I can overtake the second trump having discarded twice on diamonds). Can't see when it loses to (ii) so I think it's better.

Hold on, how is that better than (i)? It feels posier, but I'm not sure it is.

Can I do better than discard twice on diamonds? yes, if I can only read the layout.
One round of club, one round of spades, club finesse...
i) Ruffed on my left, diamond back. Now I ruff this in hand, play a second trump in dummy. If LHO follows, he started with 3 and I overtake to draw trumps. If LHo discards, I just start running clubs. RHO can ruff at some point, but has no diamonds to return. That makes 11 tricks, so I can also cope with diamonds 6-3 by discarding on the second diamond and ruffing the third.
ii) Lose to Qx club on my left. Same as above ruff the 3rd diamond in hand, trump to dummy.... now I can make whether trumps are 3-3 or 4-2 but I just have to guess which.

I can't cope with all the alternatives if I don't cash the CA first. But they feel a bit worse.

[Free]

Keep a trump in dummy before you start with ♣. If they play ♦, let them cash out (discard ♥) until you can ruff with that last trump in dummy... Finesse ♣ right away (small to the 9), don't cash the A first.

[mikeh]

Free, on Apr 3 2006, 11:17 AM, said:

Keep a trump in dummy before you start with ♣.  If they play ♦, let them cash out (discard ♥) until you can ruff with that last trump in dummy...  Finesse ♣ right away (small to the 9), don't cash the A first.

Taking an immediate deep ♣ hook merely (greatly) increases the problem you face when LHO wins and plays♦.

Let's say you play two rounds of trump (as I believe you imply).

Lose the deep hook in ♣ (it doesn't matter to the 10 or the Q) and ♦s come back.

If ♦ are 7-2, you can ruff the 3rd round, on which RHO pitches a ♣. Do you draw one more round of trump, playing for 3=3, or do you begin running ♣, playing for 4-2? In either case, you are in the same position as if you had cashed the ♣A before playing one round of trump and then losing a ♣ to the Q: while at the same time, you have lost your chance of an easy make if the ♣Q were onside.

If ♦ are 7-2, there is no point in pitching from your hand on the 3rd ♦: you are pitching a ♣ winner and RHO is pitching a ♣ loser. A ruff sluff now causes you huge grief: if you ruff in dummy, RHO pitches his last ♣ (if he began with Qxx you look very silly) and you cannot get to your hand. If you ruff in your hand, you are back to guessing trump, and a trick behind.

If ♦ are 6-3, then if you pitch twice from hand and ruff in dummy, you are dead if LHO began with 3 trump and a stiff ♣ or if RHO began with 4 trump and 2♣: he pitches his last ♣ on the 4th round of ♦ as you ruff in dummy, and now he ruffs a ♣.

So I think that Frances has it right: win the ♦A, cash the ♣A and then one round of trump to dummy and ♣ to the J.

If the ♣ loses to Qx(x), I will play trump to be 2=4, unless table action persuaded me otherwise.

BTW, while low to the ♣ 9 early seems to protect against 4-0 ♣, I think that we will probably survive that split anyway: my guess is that when ♣ are 4-0, trump will usually be 3=3.

[Free]

LHO can hardly have 1♣, 3 or more trumps AND his ♦ suit. So my guess is LHO is long in trumps and ♣, LHO has 2-3♠ and 0-2♣. I'll only lose 3 tricks, which is the main goal, unless I misjudged the situation completely...

[HeartA]

Win with ♦A at trick 1 (what else can you do?). Cash ♣A and get to dummy with ♠A (Trick #3) and finesse with [CJ] if East doesn't show out.

If lost to ♣Q or West ruffs and opps keep play ♦, pitch a ♥ and a ♣.

[cherdano]

It seems to me that the best line is: Cash ♣A and two rounds of spades, then take the club finesse. If this loses, play for spades 2-4, i.e. ruff third diamond in hand, play clubs from the top.

The advantage over the simple line of puling three rounds of trumps is that you cope against 2-4 instead of 3-3 in case the club finesse loses. However, after diamonds are 6-3 or 7-2 and clubs are 2-2, the 3-3 split is less likely than the 2-4 split.

I hope I got this right now.

Btw, I never claimed there was a 100% line, and I am sure Frances would be overqualified for 2nd league in Germany

Arend