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Lead logic problem Reverse analysis

#1 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 04:06

Scoring: IMP

3♦ P 5♦ x
5♠ x P P
6♦ P P x
all pass


This is the first hand of the last 8-board set of a KO, opponents are 42 imps down (which may explain some of what went on in both rooms). Your pass over 6D was clearly forcing. Without a large lead you probably would have bid 6H, by the way, but it seemed safer to take what money there was.

I'm not asking what you lead: the winning lead is a club.
The really difficult questions are:

- why is a club right?
- if you lead a major you concede 1090 and gain 7 imps. What on earth is going on in the other room, given that they are trying to swing but haven't been absurd?
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#2 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 04:53

I'm not going to claim I know the answer as I do not.

I just want to start in on some of the reasoning along the way to the right answer.

If I am to trust the opponents bidding at all 5♠ was a lead director in case we bid on over 6♦. 5♠ showed a willingness to go to 6, so the 3♦ hand is somehow tainted. Since the opponents are swinging, this should not be too much of a surprise. The lead director should be either an A or void. Either way, it seems fruitless to lead a spade.

Since we don't have a trump we can rule that out. I'm still think about why we should lead a club versus a heart. I will think some more.
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#3 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 05:00

Well, you might argue RHO rates to be longer in clubs than in hearts, or that pard had no kick-ass holdings in the majors since we might have bid 6M in that case, but all that is easier to say in the post mortem.
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#4 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 05:02

Lol, partner ruffs ♣ lead I guess...

How could we win 7 imps?, I have no idea, sounds like 1400, but what contract can be 1400?, maybe 3NT X.
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#5 User is offline   Gerben42 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 05:15

All things being equal if partner does NOT have ♥A it is more likely to cost compared to a lead in ♣ when he does NOT have ♣A. This is why I lead a ♣.

7 IMPs is 270 - 310 so the other room scores between 1360 and 1400.

My guess is that 6♦ wound up redoubled (1540 if making) and the opponents saved in 6♥xx for 1400.
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#6 User is offline   hatchett 

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Posted 2006-March-15, 07:36

Quote

Without a large lead you probably would have bid 6H, by the way, but it seemed safer to take what money there was.



I'm not sure that's right, if RHO does have a void ♠ you want partner to play a slam
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