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Finesse or drop?

#1 User is offline   Walddk 

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Posted 2006-March-07, 15:25

Scoring: IMP


From the Danish Cup last weekend. You open 1♣ (16+), 2♣ natural to your left, pass from partner and 2♦ by RHO. You bid 2♠, pass, and 4♠ all pass.

Lead: ♦9

RHO wins the ace and continues diamonds to your queen, LHO following. Next you cash ♠A and see the 9 to your left. Take over please.

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#2 User is offline   keylime 

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Posted 2006-March-07, 16:37

I don't like finessing here. I have a shortage of dummy entries and furthermore I'm going to give my opp some credit for playing the nine.
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#3 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2006-March-07, 17:11

king of spades. If rho shows out I can potentially endplay LHO with the spade Q. RHO tried to give his partner a ruff instead of pushing a club through, so it's not all that likely that he has 3 spades. He also has 5 diamonds and probably 3 clubs, so from a rule of empty spaces standpoint playing the king seems right as well.
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#4 User is offline   joshs 

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Posted 2006-March-07, 17:52

Walddk, on Mar 7 2006, 04:25 PM, said:

Scoring: IMP


From the Danish Cup last weekend. You open 1♣ (16+), 2♣ natural to your left, pass from partner and 2♦ by RHO. You bid 2♠, pass, and 4♠ all pass.

Lead: ♦9

RHO wins the ace and continues diamonds to your queen, LHO following. Next you cash ♠A and see the 9 to your left. Take over please.

Roland

Isn't Heart Ace, Heart to K DQ pitching a heart close to 100%? If LHO ruff's in he is endplayed unless he started with Qxx (E.g. his shape is 2326 or 2227 if the former a heart return sets up the 3'th heart for you and you have a trump entry). IF LHO doesn't ruff in take the trump hook. again endplaying LHO. This only loses if LHO has 3 trumps. Nice falsecard then <_<
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#5 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2006-March-07, 18:10

3 spades on your left seems more likely than 1. If LHO has 3 spades you need to play AK of spades and a spade. The downside of this is you may still go down if you guess incorrectly.
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#6 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2006-March-07, 18:25

Is there any chance LHO has 2227? I guess it won't hurt to try: ♥A,K, and ♦K. But I guess nobody overcalls only 2♣ with 7 card suit these days.
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#7 User is offline   joshs 

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Posted 2006-March-07, 18:27

Jlall, on Mar 7 2006, 07:10 PM, said:

3 spades on your left seems more likely than 1. If LHO has 3 spades you need to play AK of spades and a spade. The downside of this is you may still go down if you guess incorrectly.

Maybe, but as it is I think RHO made a bad bid with 2353 or 3253 shape. With 1453 shape 2D is a really really bad bid. Yes I know he wants a diamond lead, but with 3 card support and a stiff he really should be boosting the level before the strong club can start describing his hand.

Also LHO did not have to play the 9 from Q9x. I know that with the T in dummy it can't blow any position, but unless you think he would always play the 9, there is at least a resticted choice argument that he doesn't have another spot to play.
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#8 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2006-March-07, 19:12

joshs, on Mar 7 2006, 07:27 PM, said:

Also LHO did not have to play the 9 from Q9x. I know that with the T in dummy it can't blow any position, but unless you think he would always play the 9, there is at least a resticted choice argument that he doesn't have another spot to play.

This is a common mistake that people make. You are right, LHO had a choice of spots to play if he had Q9x. However, RHO had a choice of spots to play if he had Qxx as well. Restricted choice does not apply, or to put it more accurately cancels out.
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#9 User is offline   joshs 

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Posted 2006-March-07, 19:55

Jlall, on Mar 7 2006, 08:12 PM, said:

joshs, on Mar 7 2006, 07:27 PM, said:

Also LHO did not have to play the 9 from Q9x. I know that with the T in dummy it can't blow any position, but unless you think he would always play the 9, there is at least a resticted choice argument that he doesn't have another spot to play.

This is a common mistake that people make. You are right, LHO had a choice of spots to play if he had Q9x. However, RHO had a choice of spots to play if he had Qxx as well. Restricted choice does not apply, or to put it more accurately cancels out.

You are right never mind. Fuzzy thinking today <_<
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#10 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2006-March-08, 07:14

I also play for the drop for the same reasons as Justin.
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#11 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2006-March-08, 07:55

Lefty clearly tried to get a ruff. RHO didn't have ♠Q and 2 small ♣s (otherwise a ♣ switch is quite mandatory), so he'll have 3+♣. So LHO has 6 or less ♣, 2♦, 1-2♠, so he'd have lots of ♥ when he only has singleton ♠. I play for the drop.
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#12 User is offline   Walddk 

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Posted 2006-March-09, 01:35

You all did much better than declarer. Why did RHO not switch to clubs? Because he thought he could give partner a ruff. If LHO has a singleton diamond, he doesn't have a singleton spade too, and RHO will know that. If he is looking at Qxx in spades, he would surely have returned a club at trick two.

So a diamond return would only make sense if RHO had two or one spade. LHO was 2-4-2-5, and RHO therefore 2-2-5-4.

Roland
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#13 User is offline   EarlPurple 

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Posted 2006-March-10, 08:34

Why didn't East lead a club back? Anyway he didn't so if I finesse and West had Qx in spades he might be endplayed?

Anyway, I choose to finesse because I can still make sometimes even if West has Qx when he started with Qx, xx, xx, AQJxxxx. (Must cash both my hearts).
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