[Echognome]

Scoring: IMP

---

You've had an unopposed auction to 6♠. Along the way you've shown a singleton club.

The opening lead is the ♣K. After this holds the trick, LHO switches to a small heart.

What's your play now?

NB: I cannot remember the club spots played. If you think they are important, assume they were unhelpful.

Edit: Note the title is unhelpful, there are other plays than just a squeeze if you refuse the finesse. It should have been titled, Finesse or Not.

[joker_gib]

You cannot squeeze RHO so if squeeze is on, finesse is on ...

Am I missing something ?

Alain

[benlessard]

Same as Alain There is no squeeze against RHO.


IMHO best line is


play A♥ run all the trump except 1.


Take the direct D finesse. (Unfortunatetly you cannot play a high ♦ first because you will lack communication)



But at least it make when the K♥ is stiff and when J♦ is onside. Or when West discard diamond from xxxx or xxx.


Ruffing a club first seems pointless

Ben

[Gerben42]

Taking the finesse wins if LHO has the ♥K and at most 2♦. On the other hand it loses if ♦ are 3 - 3 and RHO has the ♥K, or if ♦J is singleton.

If you look at these odds without the rest of the play:
16% of the time ♥K and at most 2♦ with LHO.
18% of the time RHO has ♥K and ♦ are 3 - 3. (add 2 more % for singleton ♦J)

Anyway, I go up the Ace and play 5 rounds of trumps, discarding 2♥ and a ♣ from dummy. Only now do I see if someone has ♦J singleton (maybe someone throws from Jx you never know).

After cashing 2♦ I cross to hand by ruffing a ♣ and hope to squeeze on the last trump.

[Fluffy]

Raising looks better chance, but opponents also know that and might be taking it to their advantage. Anyway I think I'll raise and trty for the drop of ♥K third and then for the squeeze.

[Echognome]

I think some of you are missing the point. You cannot squeeze RHO agreed. But you can recover on some of the hands where LHO has the ♥K after all by squeezing LHO! There are also various plays in the diamond suit, starting with 3-3.

[joker_gib]

Fluffy, on Feb 28 2006, 12:23 PM, said:

and trty for the drop of ♥K third.

How ? You have 2 hearts in hand ??

[laughter]

Hmm...

At first, I thought the first round diamond finesse offers better chances, as DJxxx in LHO plus HK in RHO seems much more likely than DJx in RHO & HK in LHO (I have just ignored the bare DJ in RHO, or DJxxxx in LHO, for these chances are slim and quite insignificant) then I realize the squeeze would gain over the first round finesse also when diamonds are 3-3 with RHO holding DJ (a very significant 18% chance)

So, I think rising with HA & trying for a diamond-heart squeeze later is best. But I am not very sure, quite willing to listen from others.

[inquiry]

Justin's comments are most relevant here. You have gotten very hot defense.

1) They took one club and didn't try to cash a second
2) They switched to heart to force you to decide in heart hook before you got a chance to test diamonds (3-3 diamonds or singleton or doubleton jack will see you home).

If west was a beginner, he would have continued clubs. Did east seem to indicate a heart switch via playing low card attitude to switch or high card suit preference (of course you have to know their carding), Is East believable or a notrious liar? Is west good enough to lead low heart from Kxx (without the jack). All these should play into the equation.

From an odds perspective, the heart hook is 50=50/

Winning the heart ace, and pulling trumps works when diamonds are 3-3 or someone has Jx or singleton Jack. The odds of that are higher (54%). And some of the time diamonds don't behave (46%) west will have both the diamond and the heart king (it will be less than half the time, but not a lot). So it seems to me win heart ace, and play for luck in diamonds or the squeeze is markedly better than risking the heart hook at trick 2...but personalities and other factors should play into this equation. Mathematically heart hook 50%, combine diamond drop/split or red suit squeeze just less than 77%... i think in most cases you should back the play with the better odds... and if heart hook is on and East has protected diamond jack? Congradulate them for a very fine defense indeed....

[Echognome]

Quote

1) They took one club and didn't try to cash a second

I quoted in the problem that the bidding revealed a singleton club in declarer's hand. In fact declarer was known to be 7=2=3=1 OR 7=3=2=1. So opponents knew that a second club would not cash.

Quote

2) They switched to heart to force you to decide in heart hook before you got a chance to test diamonds (3-3 diamonds or singleton or doubleton jack will see you home).

Jx cannot be picked up as you have no entry to dummy if you rise with the ♥A EVEN IF trumps are 2-2. Try it.

Quote

If west was a beginner, he would have continued clubs. Did east seem to indicate a heart switch via playing low card attitude to switch or high card suit preference (of course you have to know their carding), Is East believable or a notrious liar? Is west good enough to lead low heart from Kxx (without the jack). All these should play into the equation.

West is an expert. I stated that I didn't remember the pips, but assume that you cannot read into their carding. On the actual hand, declarer had shown 3 controls as well, so opponents can place every card... thus their carding is pretty irrelevant. And thus, west is capable of leading a low heart from Kxx. He knows that a single hook is good enough.

I think the odds in the diamond suit are tougher. You can rely on the diamond finesse (50/50) instead of the hearts. You can rely on diamonds 3-3 and can combine that with the ♥K in the West hand along with 3+ diamonds.

[inquiry]

well a few issues. First, I said only a beginner would continue cluibs, but the fact that south disclosed he had a short club doesn't necessarily mean he has a short club. It is not just zia who sometimes gets creative claiming shortness that doesn't exist. Why I remember one that... well never mind, I just looked at the hand.

I overlooked the diamond blockage. However, the odds still favor the rise with the heart ACE (but again, pesonalities etc make a difference). How many spades do you have? I count nine. If spades are 3-1 or 4-0 with hand with long diamonds and West had the doubleton diamond jack you can certainly try to benefit from it (but not if you think west was great enought to drop jack from Jxxx when holdiing the heart king), by cashing one trump then the diamond ten. And if East had the doubleton jack, you back on the squeeze situation when spades refuse to behave as if WEST has heart king, he is squeezed again. This only loses to Heart king onside and doubleton jack with WEST, and spades spliting 2-2 or 3-1 (or 4-0) but hand with 2 D having long spades. If you wanted to run the permutations... it would be something like 51.53 % of the time diamonds are 3-3 or with singleton Jack or both long diamonds and heart king are with WEST so squeeze works. Add to that 16.15% diamond Jack doubleton and heart king wrongly placed or diamonds length wrongly placed so no squeeze... but of this 16.15% spades will be 3-1 or 4-0 with hand with long diamond haveing the long spades 22% of the time (.22 x .16 = 3.5%) so the hook is still 50%, the play for luck in diamonds is 55%.

[benlessard]

In theory you cannot pick up Jx♦ but in practice you will sometimes succeed because the opp might discard ♦ from 8xxx.

IMHO The main lines are

rise with the A♥ pull trump

---

Assume nobody as dicarded a diamond

Now

1--you dont cash the last spades and finesse ♦

2- cash the last spades

2a-- play diamond by the top

2b--finesse diamonds

if east doenst discard a ♦

2b is better. finesse is better then 3-3 drop

On the last ♠ what if West discard a ♦.

He could have 5♦ or 4 with the K♥

but i still think finessing diamond playing west for 5♦ is reasonnable but playing for the drop looks better.

line 2b work when J♦ is onside or when east discard a ♦ and the J♦ drop or if they discard too much diamonds it aint great but i see nothing better in the other post.

I cant see any psychological reason why the ♥ finesse would be better then 50%

When the ♥ switch come the table.

it mean they trust you and if they trust you... then the ♥ switch is obvious wheter East got the K♥ or not.

I don`t think its the level of the defense that matter it the level and reputation of the declarer.

If declarer is a beginner everybody will try to cash a 2nd round of ♣.

If declarer is an honest hard working man even the beginner will know a 2nd ♣ cannot be cashed

If declarer is capable of Zia cue-bid cashing a 2nd clubs might work so ... its a different story.