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It fits but....

Poll: Whats your bid? (26 member(s) have cast votes)

Whats your bid?

  1. pass (9 votes [34.62%])

    Percentage of vote: 34.62%

  2. 2 spades (1 votes [3.85%])

    Percentage of vote: 3.85%

  3. 3 hearts (14 votes [53.85%])

    Percentage of vote: 53.85%

  4. 4 hearts (2 votes [7.69%])

    Percentage of vote: 7.69%

  5. other (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

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#1 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2006-February-16, 16:56

Scoring: MP

E - S - W - N
ps-ps-ps-1♠
ps-1NT*-ps-2♥
ps-??


1NT* only passable with sub-minimum balanced

It smells like a 5431, doesn't it?
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#2 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2006-February-16, 17:14

I'd just pass. If pard plays it well to make 4 we'll get a lot of matchpoints.
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#3 User is offline   DrTodd13 

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Posted 2006-February-16, 17:24

First choice 3♥. Second choice 4♥. Third choice Pass.
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#4 User is offline   luke warm 

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Posted 2006-February-16, 17:52

i'd bid 3H because i can't imagine them leaving us here and i'd just as soon they not find a fit..
"Paul Krugman is a stupid person's idea of what a smart person sounds like." Newt Gingrich (paraphrased)
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#5 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2006-February-16, 18:23

This is an interesting hand.

Bidding 3♥ wins when we can bid and make game. It breaks even if partner is going to pass and we make 9 tricks. It loses if 2♥ is the limit on the hand or if he has the values to accept our vague game try but the wrong values, opposite our shape, to make game. Those 4 chances are not of equal weight, of course, but they do tend to suggest that bidding has more ways to lose than to win.

At imps, passing is just wrong, even if nv.

At BAM, in my view, pass has a LOT going for it.

At mps, the 'field' becomes a legitimate concern, which is not so at BAM.

I prefer to go with the field in bidding issues unless I think that I know something some other players will not: usually as a result of my methods or the methods used by the opps. When confronted with an everyday problem, like this one, I try to win the board in the cardplay rather than the bidding. I think the field bids here, so I do as well. In fact, I think more players will bid 4♥ than will pass, so my 3♥ bid, even if it gets us too high, will score some mps, while pass is way too committal.
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#6 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2006-February-16, 18:54

I would have raised 1♠ to 2 and I think its fairly clear.

Having unearthed a heart fit, I can't see passing with this hand. 3♥ looks right with this.
"Phil" on BBO
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#7 User is offline   Blofeld 

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  Posted 2006-February-17, 05:42

I answered 3♥ before noticing that it was MPs ... I think I still bid 3♥ at MP but it's less clear.

I would definitely have bid 2♠ rather than 1NT, though, even if playing 4cM.
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#8 User is offline   Gerben42 

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Posted 2006-February-17, 05:44

Quote

I'd just pass. If pard plays it well to make 4 we'll get a lot of matchpoints.


You just know many are going to bid 3♥, so why outguess the field?
If partner makes 4 just like everyone else but the rest bid it, you have a zero.
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#9 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2006-February-17, 08:53

I don't know what fields you play in Gerben, but in anything less than a national level field in USA I would expect almost everyone to pass. Few players are going to raise on 5 points. BBF is not an accurate representation of a normal field as A) the players are generally better here and B ) the players will often have the same abnormal views based on prior discussions (and this auction has been discussed here many times). I am very confident that in any club/sectional/regional pair game the field will pass. So telling me I'm going to get a zero for missing my 20 HCP game is pretty ridiculous. On a side note, I think passing is the right bid. I think it is much more likely we will get to a bad game than a good game by bidding 3H, and sometimes 3H will go down. So since your assessment is "everyone" will be in 4H, I will expect to get a top more than a bottom.
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#10 User is offline   pbleighton 

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Posted 2006-February-17, 09:38

I would pass.

I would bid 3H at IMPs.

Peter
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#11 User is offline   mike777 

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Posted 2006-February-17, 10:08

Can partner have?
AJxxx..AJxx..xx..xx
or would they pass 1nt?
wish I had bid 2s instead of 1nt.
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#12 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2006-February-17, 10:17

I would have bid 2S, but I sure am glad that I didn't. Just getting to hearts instead of spades may have given us a good board already. I think I would pass, I find Justin's comments very convincing.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#13 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2006-February-17, 10:24

Hannie, on Feb 17 2006, 06:17 PM, said:

I would have bid 2S, but I sure am glad that I didn't. Just getting to hearts instead of spades may have given us a good board already. I think I would pass, I find Justin's comments very convincing.

And as a side note, it is completely irrelevant what the field would bid here, since they will never get there! They will be playing 2♠.

Arend
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#14 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2006-February-17, 10:50

I'd also have bid 2♠. Interestingly this leaves me better placed than 1NT because partner is in control of the auction. If partner passes 2♠, I'm glad we got out at the two-level. If partner makes a game try in ♥, I have an easy accept. This seems much better than the auction to 2♥, where someone is going to be pretty much guessing.

After the 1NT and 2♥ from partner, I prefer pass at matchpoints. You're already in a non-field contract. If opener has a sufficiently strong hand to look for game over 2♠, you may miss a good game and get a bad board. But it's more likely that opener would've passed 2♠, in which case you've got a sure plus position by being in the heart fit instead of in spades. This is more comfortable playing a strong club (or gazilli/riton) but I think passing goes with the odds. Matchpoints is all about the odds.
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#15 User is offline   han 

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Posted 2006-February-17, 11:04

awm, on Feb 17 2006, 11:50 AM, said:

I'd also have bid 2♠. Interestingly this leaves me better placed than 1NT because partner is in control of the auction.

Yeah, this is a good point.
Please note: I am interested in boring, bog standard, 2/1.

- hrothgar
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#16 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2006-February-17, 11:10

With the double fit, spades will play well too - although hearts ruffs may be looming.

I still bid 3♥ and I expect pard to chalk up a game if he chooses to bid it. Pard also knows its MPs and won't stretch unnecessarily.
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#17 User is offline   joshs 

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Posted 2006-February-17, 11:30

Hmm, I have a very different view here than many of you.

Case 1: Partner has 11-15

Here we are "ahead of the field" in 2H since the standard auction would go 1S-2S-P-P-, although they are likely going to balance.

Case 2: Partner has 16-18, now the standard auction goes 1S-2S-3H-4H and it would be very bad not to be there.

In case 1, if you bid 3H partner will pass with 11-13 and might bid game with 14-15. I think oppposite 14-15 game is 50% (actually more than that since silent opps indicates things are more likely than usual to break). Partner might pass with 5431 14-15 but will definitely bid game on a good 5431 14-15 and game should be great then. So overcall, I think we partner bids game, it will make 55-60% of the time. Do we get a bad board opposite 11-13? No, since there is very little chance we are going to be allowed to play 2S in the standard auction so the field is either defending 3m or playing 3M. And playing hearts is likely better than playing spades.


In case 1, we will get an average+ board on average for raising. In case 2, we get a cold bottom for passing. I think a 3H bid here is clear. Note also that case 2 is more likely than normal since you have only a 5 count and the opponents have been passing throughout.

Well thats my 2 cents.
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#18 User is offline   joshs 

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Posted 2006-February-17, 11:31

joshs, on Feb 17 2006, 12:30 PM, said:

Hmm, I have a very different view here than many of you.

Case 1: Partner has 11-15

Here we are "ahead of the field" in 2H since the standard auction would go 1S-2S-P-P-, although they are likely going to balance.

Case 2: Partner has 16-18, now the standard auction goes 1S-2S-3H-4H and it would be very bad not to be there.

In case 1, if you bid 3H partner will pass with 11-13 and might bid game with 14-15. I think oppposite 14-15 game is 50% (actually more than that since silent opps indicates things are more likely than usual to break). Partner might pass with 5431 14-15 but will definitely bid game on a good 5431 14-15 and game should be great then. So overcall, I think we partner bids game, it will make 55-60% of the time. Do we get a bad board opposite 11-13? No, since there is very little chance we are going to be allowed to play 2S in the standard auction so the field is either defending 3m or playing 3M. And playing hearts is likely better than playing spades.


In case 1, we will get an average+ board on average for raising. In case 2, we get a cold bottom for passing. I think a 3H bid here is clear. Note also that case 2 is more likely than normal since you have only a 5 count and the opponents have been passing throughout.

Well thats my 2 cents.

I meant partner might pass on a 5422 14 count.
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#19 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2006-February-17, 12:49

I love this question, because (1) it brings up something I never thought of before and (2) my answer (surprise!!!) is not just not repeated but WEIRD.

I believe that the best call (assuming a priori that 1NT is right) is 3D.

What could 3D be? Normally, this would show a long diamond suit, right? Assuming that 2D is weak as an opening, I cannot have long diamonds. Even if I held a flawm, that flaw would be a major, and I could now support a major.

Add to this PPP1SP2D, if not 2-way drury, and "long diamonds" is out.

If it cannot be natural, than it must show a fit.

If it shows a fit and is undiscussed, it is USUALLY natural (fit-showing), unless that also seems less likely than default #2, shortness, is more likely.

What, then, should 3D show? Contextaully, it COULD be a weak two with a flaw that is a heart suit, or it could be a shortness bid with length in hearts. However, as I assume that only regular Drury is being used, 2D makes sense even with 6-4. Thus, I'd expect a default to shortness.

I'd NEVER pull this without discussion, but this ONE auction suggests that 3D be treated as a shortness-based constructive raise of hearts.
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#20 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2006-February-17, 12:58

3♦ is:

♠x
♥Jx
♦JT9xxxx
♣QJx

Sorry partner, I know you have the majors, but my hand is unplayable in anything but diamonds.

However, it might be fun to play in the 1-1 fit for declarer practice.
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