Posted 2006-January-20, 12:00
4♣ for me also. Fifty-percent slams do not need to be bid (the expected score is equal whether they are bid or not) and most slams "on a finesse" are not fifty-percent because unusual lies of the cards like a 5-0 trump break will also often defeat them.
To make a slam we need partner to have two aces (otherwise we're off two cashing). We also need clubs to play for one loser, which will be fifty-percent at best unless partner has ♣K. So that's five controls needed, and Justin's example hand doesn't make slam good either.
By bidding 4♣ I'm only losing one step, since five controls will now be 4♠ instead of 4♥. The problem is that I don't know what to do opposite "five controls" if it can be A-A-K and nothing else, whereas "five controls and 14-15" will almost always give decent odds for slam (if partner has points in suits, then this will normally be the needed A-A-K plus either both black queens or one black queen and the spade jack; in any case slam is at least on a finesse).
A serious (in my view anyway) problem with relays in the symmetric style is that it can be very hard to locate queens. On a hand like this, five controls plus two queens makes slam virtually laydown (in clubs, not spades). Five controls and nothing else makes slam virtually no-play, and even the five-level is not without risk. If partner's hand resolves via number of controls, then locates controls by denial cuebids, you're often at the six level before you even find out if partner has an outside queen!
This is a major reason Sam and I switched to 3-2-1 points and a method where queens receive serious weight earlier in the relay sequence.
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
1♠ - 1NT ®
2♣ - 2♦ ®
2♠ - 2NT ®
3♣ - 3♦ ®
3♥ - ?