[kgr]

Scoring: IMP

---

The bidding starts with West:
(P)-2♣-(P)-2♦
(2♠)-
How do you continue from here? Do you want to bid 6 or 7?
Playing with a pickup partner the bidding at our table was:
(P)-2♣-(P)-2♦
(2♠)-DBL-(P)-3♣
(P)-4♦-(P)-4♠
(P)-4NT-(P)-5♣
(P)-6NT-(P)-7♦
This was 'gambling' to 7♦. What is a better bidding sequence?
I don't like the jump to 4♦. If North would have bid 3♦ iso 4, what would a jump to 4♠ then mean for you? Would it be RKC voidwood with ♦ trump?

[Robert]

Hi everyone

Grand Slams should be bid with about 70+% odds in their favor. This Grand Slam

is less than 20%.

4D was not a great bid.

No voidwood with a pick up partner, that is just looking for trouble.

If you are going to make a pick up partner guess, they would normally guess

that 3D-4S is a splinter raise.

Regards,
Robert

[kgr]

Robert, on Dec 28 2005, 01:53 PM, said:

Grand Slams should be bid with about 70+% odds in their favor.  This Grand Slam is less than 20%.

I would think it is around 50%. You don't need a lot more then ♣Q dropping?

Quote

No voidwood with a pick up partner, that is just looking for trouble.
If you are going to make a pick up partner guess, they would normally guess that 3D-4S is a splinter raise. 

I agree, but the intention of this part of my question was rather: How would experts play this jump to 4♠. Is this a good use for voidwood? Do you play it as voidwood with your regular partner?

[Flame]

kgr, on Dec 28 2005, 06:59 AM, said:

Robert, on Dec 28 2005, 01:53 PM, said:

Grand Slams should be bid with about 70+% odds in their favor.  This Grand Slam is less than 20%.

I would think it is around 50%. You don't need a lot more then ♣Q dropping?

What about the diamond Q ? Dont you need it to drop too ?

[kgr]

Flame, on Dec 28 2005, 02:55 PM, said:

kgr, on Dec 28 2005, 06:59 AM, said:

Robert, on Dec 28 2005, 01:53 PM, said:

Grand Slams should be bid with about 70+% odds in their favor.  This Grand Slam is less than 20%.

I would think it is around 50%. You don't need a lot more then ♣Q dropping?

What about the diamond Q ? Dont you need it to drop too ?

Sorry, That is what I meant.
The ♣Q you can ruff out.

[Kalvan14]

6♦ all the time. 7♦ is just a big swing.
Don't understand why N felt the need to JS to 4♦.
Over 3♦ (which might be 4 cards), 4♠ is a splinter, with obvious fit.
At this stage N would need to make sure of: K & Q in clubs, Q of diamonds and chicane in spade. I doubt all of them can be made sure of. 6 ♦ is the only practical contract.

[pclayton]

Over 2♠, I play that pass shows the balanced 22-24 (the North hand is better than that), so North can try 2N. Onward:

............ 2N
3♣.....3♦
4♣.....4♦
4♠.....4N
5N.........6♦

3♣ / 3♦ = Stayman
4♣ / 4♦ = natural

[keylime]

Seven diamonds is very poor. Six diamonds isn't exactly smooth sailing if adverse breaks come.

[kgr]

I entered this deal in Jack and let West lead ♥T (as happened at the table). After this lead the analysis (for 1000 deals) is 939.3 points or 65% of 1440.
After the lead of ♥4 the analysis gives 797.8 points or 55%.
Not sure how correct this is, but I think that the chanches for 7♦ are closer to 50% then to 20%.

[Kalvan14]

kgr, on Dec 28 2005, 04:25 PM, said:

I entered this deal in Jack and let West lead ♥T (as happened at the table). After this lead the analysis (for 1000 deals) is 939.3 points or 65% of 1440.
After the lead of ♥4 the analysis gives 797.8 points or 55%.
Not sure how correct this is, but I think that the chanches for 7♦ are closer to 50% then to 20%.

There is a communication problem between the 2 hands.
You can play A♥, spade ruff, K♥, spade ruff, A♣, spade ruff with the J♦, and now you are there. Finesse in diamonds or playing for the drop?
Whichever you choose, it is far less than 50% (you cannot play for the drop of a singleton Q with RHO, and you loose in any case with diamonds 4-0).
This is the best chance you have (and requires hearts not worse than 5-2, spades not worse than 7-3, and at best a guess in diamonds).

Btw, 1440 (6NT=) means that either there is a mistake in the defense (LHO takes immediately the ♠A, or that you get right the situations in both minors (but then you would score 1470).

[Fluffy]

looks like one of those times where opponent's overcall heps your cause, without overcall I would most likelly end up playing 5 or 6♣. With the overcall it should start something like


2♣-2♦ (2♠)
ps*-3♣
3♦-3♥
3NT-4♦
5♦-....


and now up to responder to evaluate if that is worth 6 or not

[kgr]

kgr, on Dec 28 2005, 01:19 PM, said:

Dealer: West Vul: E/W Scoring: IMP

♠ KQ4 ♥ AK ♦ AKT98 ♣ AJ8 ♠   ♥ Q832 ♦ J432 ♣ KT765

The bidding starts with West:
Playing with a pickup partner the bidding at our table was:
(P)-2♣-(P)-2♦
(2♠)-DBL-(P)-3♣
(P)-4♦-(P)-4♠
(P)-4NT-(P)-5♣
(P)-6NT-(P)-7♦

LHO did start ♥T.
I started with ♦A, under which LHO drops the Q. I then played ♦K (♠2 with LHO) followed by ♥K.
From here my plan was to set up ♣'s. That is why I left one trump with RHO. I needed two trumps as entrees in my hand in case RHO started with 4 ♣'s.
After ♥K I continued with ♣A and a ♣ to my K. RHO did drop his ♣Q under my K, so I could claim.
==============
Not sure if that was the best play. Another possibility is to play LHO for ♠A and for short ♥'s. You can then play for a double squeeze by ruffing 2 ♠'s and with LHO having to keep ♠A, RHO has to keep ♥'s and both opponents will have to give up ♣'s.
What is the best plan to play 7♦?

[Robert]

Hi everyone

This 7D contract(missing the Qxxx of diamonds) did have a 2S overcall 'in front'

of the 2C opener. If that doesn't shift the odds away from the 'normal' 2-2, 3-1

and 4-0 breaks, I would be very surprised.

Even a 3-1 break(picking up a stiff Q) would require some delicate handing unless

the club queen fell early in the play.

I would guess the odds are something about 4-1 or 5-1(75-80% maybe?) against a

2-2 trump split 'after' the overcall' the suit cannot be very good so it should be

"long." Even a 6331 shape suggests that the '1' might be in diamonds.

A player that wants to know how to bid 7Ds on this hand might not know how to

pick up the club suit by ruffing it out.

Regards,
Robert

[inquiry]

With West bidding 2♠, I would suggest that seven diamonds is not a good contract. The question to ask yourself is why didn't West open 2♠? How can he feel comfortable bidding 2♠ now in light of him being vulnerable and us not being vul?

If I had to guess, I would say that west is probably 6-4 in the majors and didn't open 2♠ because of the four card heart suit. This suggest the club hook on EAST will work, but we will most likely lose a diamond to the queen in EAST's hand.

[HeartA]

kgr, on Dec 28 2005, 08:20 AM, said:

Flame, on Dec 28 2005, 02:55 PM, said:

kgr, on Dec 28 2005, 06:59 AM, said:

Robert, on Dec 28 2005, 01:53 PM, said:

Grand Slams should be bid with about 70+% odds in their favor.  This Grand Slam is less than 20%.

I would think it is around 50%. You don't need a lot more then ♣Q dropping?

What about the diamond Q ? Dont you need it to drop too ?

Sorry, That is what I meant.
The ♣Q you can ruff out.

Close to 50%? how did you calculate the probability? Ruff out CQ? how? you need an entry to cash HQ and pitch club, right? You need C to be 3-2 as well.

[adhoc3]

kgr, on Dec 28 2005, 04:25 PM, said:

I entered this deal in Jack and let West lead ♥T (as happened at the table). After this lead the analysis (for 1000 deals) is 939.3 points or 65% of 1440.
After the lead of ♥4 the analysis gives 797.8 points or 55%.
Not sure how correct this is, but I think that the chanches for 7♦ are closer to 50% then to 20%.

Quote

I entered this deal in Jack and let West lead ♥T (as happened at the table). After this lead the analysis (for 1000 deals) is 939.3 points or 65% of 1440.

There're a lots of contracts that DF can make but never a human being.

[foo]

kgr, on Dec 28 2005, 06:19 AM, said:

Dealer: West Vul: E/W Scoring: IMP

♠ KQ4 ♥ AK ♦ AKT98 ♣ AJ8 ♠   ♥ Q832 ♦ J432 ♣ KT765

The bidding starts with West:
(P)-2♣-(P)-2♦
(2♠)-
How do you continue from here? Do you want to bid 6 or 7?
Playing with a pickup partner the bidding at our table was:
(P)-2♣-(P)-2♦
(2♠)-DBL-(P)-3♣
(P)-4♦-(P)-4♠
(P)-4NT-(P)-5♣
(P)-6NT-(P)-7♦
This was 'gambling' to 7♦. What is a better bidding sequence?
I don't like the jump to 4♦. If North would have bid 3♦ iso 4, what would a jump to 4♠ then mean for you? Would it be RKC voidwood with ♦ trump?

Unless one is feeling "frisky" or can't figure out that the odds are not good enough, one should not bid a less than ~68% Grand. Especially in a field where many won't bid it no matter what.

That being said, the odds on this 7D are completely dependent on finding the DQ.

Best line is to believe the HT lead was a stiff.
You finesse RHO opponent for the DQ (60%) and plan to toss S's under C's after establishing the C suit. This requires either the CQ drops (27%) or you can toss the 3rd C under the HQ and ruff out the CQ if C's are 32 (68%). A hair over 40.5%

IOW, you not be in 7D on this board under any circumstances.

[Gerben42]

Forget about the math. Never bid a grand slam with 9 trumps lacking the Queen (well if you saw it in opponents hand without looking on purpose...).

[Fluffy]

Gerben42, on Jan 9 2006, 02:56 PM, said:

Forget about the math. Never bid a grand slam with 9 trumps lacking the Queen (well if you saw it in opponents hand without looking on purpose...).

There is another very good rule, never bid a grand that doens't make when you could had played lower