[akhare]

You are South and hold:

Scoring: IMP

---

White vs. red, bidding w/ LHO starting proceedings:

(2♠) - X - (P):

What's your bid? Note that you haven't played against these opponents before, but LHO seems reasonable from the bidding on the past few boards.

[hrothgar]

Interesting hand...

I'm passing. With luck, we got them down 5 white on red

[Winstonm]

I think I'm hearing a 6421 pattern: J1098xx, KQJx, xx, x seems about right. If he's fortunate enough to find one ace in dummy it's down 1 only so I bid 3N. It usually doesn't pay to penalize a fit at the 2-level and here there is at least an 8-card fit and could be 10 - though 9 is most likely. Pard could still hold on the lines of x, Axxx, QJxx, AKxx.

If opener seems a solid player, I think the risk of +200 is real - and if I'm wrong it shouldn't be more than 100 difference between +400 and +500. I really don't see this going down more than 2 if opening bidder is semi-sane.

Winston

[000002]

Is it any difference between KQJx and KQxx on side suit when you want to open a preemptive hand?but this time,ther are a huge distance from China to US.
Hence, i vote transfering T/O to punishment.

[whereagles]

I'm passing.

Incidently, find it much more likely that LHO opened 2♠ on trash than on a nice 6-4.

[Free]

I'd rather suspect LHO has 7 or more ♠s, so they won't go down enough... 3NT

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

Pass.

But it really depeds on the opponents weak 2
style.

Hopefully partner leads a trump.

Marlowe

[P_Marlowe]

Jlall, on Dec 30 2005, 10:55 PM, said:

3N, and if we have them down 5 (1400) in 2S, we will almost always have 6N (1440). I could not imagine passing a takeout X on a 3 card trump suit.

This maybe true, but 3NT will end the
auction most of the time, even if 6NT has
a chance to succeed, ... of course Pass will
end the auction as well.

Marlowe

[P_Marlowe]

Winstonm, on Dec 30 2005, 09:05 PM, said:

I think I'm hearing a 6421 pattern: J1098xx, KQJx, xx, x seems about right. If he's fortunate enough to find one ace in dummy it's down 1 only so I bid 3N. It usually doesn't pay to penalize a fit at the 2-level and here there is at least an 8-card fit and could be 10 - though 9 is most likely. Pard could still hold on the lines of x, Axxx, QJxx, AKxx.

If opener seems a solid player, I think the risk of +200 is real - and if I'm wrong it shouldn't be more than 100 difference between +400 and +500. I really don't see this going down more than 2 if opening bidder is semi-sane.

Winston

But +200 vs +400 is not terrible
as well.

The real question is, how high are the chances
to get +800, ... and -670.

Marlowe

[Winstonm]

P_Marlowe, on Dec 31 2005, 06:47 AM, said:

Winstonm, on Dec 30 2005, 09:05 PM, said:

I think I'm hearing a 6421 pattern: J1098xx, KQJx, xx, x seems about right.  If he's fortunate enough to find one ace in dummy it's down 1 only so I bid 3N.  It usually doesn't pay to penalize a fit at the 2-level and here there is at least an 8-card fit and could be 10 - though 9 is most likely.  Pard could still hold on the lines of x, Axxx, QJxx, AKxx.

If opener seems a solid player, I think the risk of +200 is real - and if I'm wrong it shouldn't be more than 100 difference between +400 and +500.  I really don't see this going down more than 2 if opening bidder is semi-sane.

Winston

But +200 vs +400 is not terrible
as well.

The real question is, how high are the chances
to get +800, ... and -670.

Marlowe

I cannot imagine 3N going down; however, I can imagine 2S making when partner has shape:

---

But I suppose this is just another argument for underleading an AK combo.

Wasn't it Benjamin Franklin who said: "A bird in hand gathers no moss?"

Winston

[hrothgar]

Jlall, on Dec 31 2005, 06:55 AM, said:

3N, and if we have them down 5 (1400) in 2S, we will almost always have 6N (1440). I could not imagine passing a takeout X on a 3 card trump suit.

I think its actually 990 v 1400 at this vulnerability

[hrothgar]

Jlall, on Dec 31 2005, 06:12 PM, said:

hrothgar, on Dec 31 2005, 10:06 AM, said:

Jlall, on Dec 31 2005, 06:55 AM, said:

3N, and if we have them down 5 (1400) in 2S, we will almost always have 6N (1440). I could not imagine passing a takeout X on a 3 card trump suit.

I think its actually 990 v 1400 at this vulnerability

ah thanks, was wondering what was with all the passers, I thought we were red/white lol.

Anyways, assuming the opponents are not insane, the 2S bidder knows he bid 2S red/white with a jack high suit. He will presumably have some reason to do this, such as 7-3-2-1 or 6-4 with some outside offensive values in his side suit. It's possible both 2S and 3N will make. Most likely we can get 2S 500 vs our 430 or so which isn't a big deal at imps. I consider beating them 1 much more likely than beating them 3, once again assuming the opponents are not insane.

I agree that passing is something of a crap shoot.

However, I have this sick dream that LHO opened on a six card suit and partner is has a trump to lead... (Yeah, I know that Christmas has come and gone, but one can still dream)

[Kalvan14]

I've seen 2M pre-empts bid with a 6-5 shape (6-4 is so tame nowadays ). Overall, the lack of the 4th trump pushes me toward 3N, if I have a minimum confidence in the skills of our oppos.

[000002]

Don't guess what is the preemptive hand,it's many possibility.

Winstonm's examble with 4card ♠ and poor hand 4hcps+singleton is the 0 probability, because his silence isn't a player,just a deity, italian deity.lol

[Winstonm]

000002, on Dec 31 2005, 10:27 PM, said:

Don't guess what is the preemptive hand,it's many possibility.

Winstonm's examble with 4card ♠ and poor hand 4hcps+singleton is the 0 probability, because his silence isn't a player,just a deity, italian deity.lol

Scoring: MP

---

You are of course correct - I had the hands wrong - these were the actual hands.


East wisely decided to pass with only 3-card support and reasonable defense against hearts - must have been Forquet!

Winston

[000002]

sorry i don't know what's forquet, my english is poor.

The special hand can't clarify the essential reason.let me explain as a theorist:LOL
*preempt 2♠ means his 6tricks with normal hypothesis,for examble JT9xxxx=5tricks and KQxx=5/2 tricks.this time his partner has 8HCPs normally,2tricks aid is not so easy.
*assume the t/o is 12HCPs with 3suiter,it's a little difficulty to make 3NT up,because:RHO has 8hcps normally,so total 17HCPs on ♥♦♣ is tough to get 6tricks.for instance:AQ+AQ+AJ.But this time is easy for your ♣ suit.It means 3nt is security.
*opps has 8-9cards trump(or7),the rule of total tricks disclosed it's suitable/becoming.But it's assuming on the statistics & both VUL or no.
*the penalize is statistics too,90% rate of success is too many.

The conclusion is 3NT better than penalty if you need a consertive result,and pass is better than 3NT when you need a venture.I am a knight,so i would pass. ROFL

Happy new year

[Winstonm]

Quote

sorry i don't know what's forquet, my english is poor.

Was referring to Pietro Forquet, great member of the old Squadra Azzura.

I like the point you make: pass if needing to catch up and bid 3N if comfortably ahead. Not bad.

Winston

[pendharkar]

Bid 3 S. Reasons:

1. Establish Game force. No possibility of misunderstanding.

2. No S (max 1) looser

3. Long Club has potential for slam.

Pendharkar