[Trumpace]

This hand appeared during yesterday's counting session with hannie, matt and arend.

You have reached 2H, assume everyone (except you of course ) is intermediate/adv.

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I wish I remembered the bidding, sadly I don't. Maybe someone can post the bidding here...


Opponents start off with two diamonds and switch to clubs which you win with the ♣A.


Plan the play.

(To make the problem a little more interesting {I hope} assume spades are 3-3)

[Echognome]

I believe the dealer was East and it went:

(1♦) - P - (2♦) - X
(P) - 2♥ - All Pass

[Robert]

Hi everyone

It is much easier to count 'if' we are told which player played 'what diamond' to win the first two diamond tricks. Sometimes you can make an informed guess in another suit 'if' you can count up the HCP in one or both of the other pairs hands.

Regards,
Robert

[inquiry]

Trumpace, on Dec 18 2005, 02:17 AM, said:

You have reached 2H

Opponents start off with two diamonds and switch to clubs which you win with the ♣A.

Plan the play.

---

(To make the problem a little more interesting {I hope} assume spades are 3-3)

I guess this was a random deal rather than a specific counting problem.

But since it is a count problem, I don't think it is a good idea to "Assume" spades are 3-3. But you can assume that they are 3-3 or that EAST has four. You see why, right? With four spades, most WEST's would have responded 1♠ and if WEST had 1♠, EAST would have five.

It is also probably ok to assume that EAST has at least four diamonds and that diamonds are 5-4. Why does east have four diamonds? He can't be 4♠-4♦-3♦-2♣ simply because they only have a total of 3♥'s. And if he was 4♠-3♥-3♦-3♣ WEST would have six diamonds and a heart void and would surely have taken the push to 3♦ over 2♥'s.

As robert said, knowing what cards were played to the first two tricks will be helpful in "counting". They have 22 hcp and have found their nine-card fit and yet sold out at the two level. This suggest they have little in the way of distributional value despite one of them having to have a void or singleton in ♥'s.

The problem here, is there is no easy exit from dummy to take the heart hook even if it was on. So, you will be playing hearts from the top. The thought is to endplay EAST in hearts or spades. Basic line. Win club ace, cash heart ace, cash club king, lead a heart. If East is forced to win, you are in control.

If West wins and doesn't exit a spade all is well too. This line will work anytime EAST has only one spade honor, or if he has heart king (one, two or three hearts) and both spade honors. If WEST wins and leads a spade, you have to play for split spade honors.

There could be some lines where you might play EAST for AK doubleton spade, but you will have to do some serious counting of honors before such a line.

[Trumpace]

inquiry, on Dec 18 2005, 12:20 PM, said:

[I guess this was a random deal rather than a specific counting problem.

But since it is a count problem, I don't think it is a good idea to "Assume" spades are 3-3.

Yes, this is more about the play than counting. I just mentioned the counting lesson, so that someone who remembered the bidding could reply with it...

[Trumpace]

inquiry, on Dec 18 2005, 12:20 PM, said:

This line will work anytime EAST has only one spade honor, or if he has heart king (one, two or three hearts) and both spade honors. If WEST wins and leads a spade, you have to play for split spade honors.

If spades are 4-2 there is a chance that the opponents can manouver a spade ruff.

For instance if West has Ax in spades and Kxx of trumps...
After A and small heart, west will play A and small spade. East win and return a spade for a ruff.

If spades are 3-3, I think there is a 100% line available (assuming clubs are at least 6-2). Also, I think that line also works if opponent do not manouver for a spade ruff in case they are 4-2.

[Winstonm]

Best course of action is to win the club and duck a diamond. If the opponents are on their toes, they will cash two diamonds and return a club. Now though you are in control. Play the Ace of hearts and a heart. If the hearts are 2/1, you can get to hand after dummy has been forced with the 3rd club to lead a spade toward the QJxx. This wins whenever east holds the AKx of spades along with diamonds good enough to be forced to win a second round: KQJ, AKJ, AKQ. (With lesser diamonds, East can allow West to win both diamonds for spades through dummy)

The only time you lose is when West holds Kx of hearts and East the AKx(x) of spades in which case there is no winning continuation.

Winston

[luke warm]

i'd like to know who played which diamonds on the first 2 leads

[kgr]

I played this at the table: The first 2 tricks were won by East with ♦AK. Then East plays a club to the A in Dummy. You play ♥A and West appears to be void.
The safety play against ♠AK with East as explained by Ben (eliminate ♣ and play a ♠ to QJ) was suggested after the play. But this is not realistic for two reasons:
- After the initial play East can not have ♠AK as that would give him 17+ points and that does not corrspond with the bidding.
- East has 3 card ♥: after ♥A and ♣K you play a small ♥ for the K of East and East reurns a Heart. Now you ruff a ♣ and have to return to the hand with ♥ leaving no ♥'s in Dummy.
Considering this it is better to play a small ♥ after ♥A. this minimizes the chances that EW will find the ruff in ♠ if it would be available. Maybe they prefer to play another club first if you don't play the K.

[Trumpace]

If spades are 3-3, I think the following play gives a 100% chance.

Win ♣A, cash ♣K and play a low heart off the table. The idea is to ruff a club before the 3rd round (if at all) of trumps are drawn. If we win the 3rd round we can win in hand an play a spade towards QJ. If opps win the third round they are endplayed.

Given the bidding, it is likely that east either has 3 or 4 spades and West has 3 or 2 (according to Ben.. if I understood his post correctly)

The chances of 3-3 are now: 57.14%
The chances of 4-2 are now: 42.86%
(using Richard Pavlicek's suit break calculator, giving East 4 spaces and West 3).

The chances of a 2-1 heart break: 78%

If we do not know that spades are 3-3, playing the A and small (after cashing ♣K) is much better than low heart after cashing ♣K, if you think the opponents will find the spade ruff. Against most beg/intermediate players, I think it is better to play a small heart instead A and small...