Jlall, on Dec 10 2005, 01:37 PM, said:
I strongly disagree that north should do something stronger than 2S. Yes he has a void, but voids aren't that great with only THREE trumps. They are much more valuable with 4 trumps. Often with 3 trumps pard will lose trump control having to cross back to his hand with ruffing, or the opponents can play too many trumps (even if they dont lead one partner needs a lot of fast entries to his hand outside of trumps). Not only that, our trumps are KQx. Pard may not be thrilled about scoring his ruffs when he holds A9xxx of spades himself.
North does have a 6 card suit, but it's headed to the 9. Setting them up will be very unlikely. This hand is not going to play well. You need a source of tricks somewhere. The only reason the actual hand does play well is because partner has a side heart suit and only needs one ruff in diamonds. Partner also happens to have 15 points with 5422 distribution, and had RHO not bid FOUR diamonds he would have been able to make a game try which north would gladly accept (in hearts he has a much stronger playing hand). Usually if partner does not make a game try you won't miss game unless he has a perfecta (take away his DQ and CJ here, and game still makes).

Perfect analysis IMO.
I would have bid 4
♠ with the south hand based on a wholly different type of analysis. From the bidding, it sounds like pard has a stiff diamond. Combined with my doubleton club, the sum of our short suits would be three. I have 13 or 14 working high card points. Partner's raise advertises another six. Applying Mike and Anders' favorite formula: 13-3=10 (maybe 9 if pard's raise was very weak). 4
♠ figures to make or go down one.
Even if our limit is nine tricks in spades, 4
♠ down one could be right if there were 19 tricks in the hand. Depending on how you play a competitive raise to 3
♠, the odds of there being 19 trumps vary, but I can almost count 18 for certain. Either a void or two suit fit might or a fourth trump in pard's hand offer the prospect of one more. Can 4
♠ lose? Of course, but what are the odds?
A pass (or double) of 4
♦ leaves a huge burden on the weak hand. Who has better information here, me or pard? IMO playing to avoid criticism in the post mortem is losing bridge. Who are such critics, anyway?
S W N E
1♠2♦2♠4♦
P P P