[AAr]

First of all, all this post assumes that you are playing Matchpoints, not IMPs.

Suppose that based on a bidding mistake or hand misevaluation, you miss your major suit fit, end up playing 1NT, and it is obvious that the Field will likely find the major suit fit, bid the major suit game, and make it. Your partner will be upset if you miss your par score because of misbidding or misplaying, so you have to try to beat the Field somehow.

With Option A, you have to realize that taking ten tricks in a major suit game even when not vulnerable scores 420 (620 when vulnerable) while, reguardless of vulnerability, even if you somehow manage to take ALL THIRTEEN tricks at 1NT/2NT, you still can't beat those making game, and may lose if the risk for extra tricks causes you to go down (or perhaps even lose overtricks).

Option B implies that the Field will find the major fit fit but miss the game, ending up in 2M or 3M. They will likely score +170, so you try for ten tricks and +180 to beat the +170s. But, again, this strategy can never beat +420/620, can risk a bad score if you go lose tricks (esp. the making trick) by doing this. Furthermore, if ten tricks can be made in NT, then it also means that the tables that are in 3NT are likely making it, making a good score with this option less likely.

Option C implies that even in the major suit fit, nine tricks is the limit, but that some, most, or all of the Field will stop short of game, and go for +150 to beat +140. Again, you can't beat those making game doing this and can risk going down doing this which may worsen your score.

Option D either implies that the Field will be in game but go down, will overbid and go for slam, will misbid and bid the wrong strain and go down, or go down because of bad declarer play. Just scoring +90 will beat -50/-100, and you won't need to worry about overtricks ar all to beat those scores, so you hope for that possibility. But, this strategy can lose to other tables taking partscores and playing more aggressively, and will never enable you to beat those who are making games.

Or, should you think that it doesn't matter. It may not matter, because 420/620 is likely the Field result, and you can't beat that in 1NT, but it sounds wrong just on additide alone.

I know I shouldn't be in 1NT when it looks like 4M is on, but how would you play the hand if it WOULD happen, maximizing your chances of a good score.

Thanks!

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[Gerben42]

Assume the opponent's cards are divided in such a way that 4M will go down and try to make 1NT. This is the only situation where you will get any MP. If 1NT is not in danger, try to outscore those in 3M or 2M (you never know).

[luke warm]

i automatically lose to anyone in 4S making... so i have to assume (or hope) that those players, or at least half of them, are off 1.. it really doesn't matter as far as they're concerned, they're either in game or not, making or not

so for me to do well i have to play to beat those in 2 and 3S... i'd play to take 9 tricks, losing to the spade players who take 10, bid or not, and beating all others

[awm]

Usually by looking at the two hands it's possible to make some evaluation about where people will be. Basically:

(1) If it seems pretty obvious that everyone will bid game, then I should just play to make my contract, hoping the game goes down. If we have 26 hcp, for example, I'll bet on the field being in game.

(2) If it seems likely that people will miss game, because it's on some kind of "perfect fit" and not a lot of high cards, then it may be worthwhile to try for ten tricks in notrump. It may also be worthwhile to just take as many tricks as you can, if it seems like you might not be alone in 1NT on this hand.

So my answer is "usually D, but depends on the hand."

[Fluffy]

I would needtosee all the hand to think if 4Mis really an 80% field game or just a marginal one (althou I hardly ever succeed at predicting it). Then decide.