[easy]

you hold

akxxx    jxx   qx  xxx

playing precision partner opens 1h(11-15), and rho overcalls 2c. Your call

yeah, yeah i know looks like a no brainer but...

[inquiry]

Quote

you hold

akxxx    jxx   qx  xxx

playing precision partner opens 1h(11-15), and rho overcalls 2c. Your call

yeah, yeah i know looks like a no brainer but...

This is very far from a no-brainer, at least for me. You didn't say what the form of scoring was, or the vulnerability. At imps, vul, I will of course bid more aggressively than non-vul (hate to miss vul games at imp). At matchpoint I will just be trying to get a good plus score.

In a nutshell here are my bids. At imps vul, I bid 3C. All other games and vul I double. My reasoning follows.

First, what do I think about my hand? The Qx of diamonds and three small clubs suggest caution. My Spade AK are equally good on defense as offense. I have only three hearts, instead of four. And my distribution favors defense rather than offense. All of these suggest that I have fair defense and not that great of offense. So I will tread a little lightly.

First, what I will not bid. I will not bid 3H's.  This should show good offense and poor defense. I just explained I think I have a fair defensive hand. Second, I will surely not bid 4Hs. That places all your eggs in one very shaky basket, who hasn't seen precision partners open 1H on xxx  AQxxx  Kx  QJx? With this hand, 4Hx loses 2C, a club ruff, a spade, and a diamond, plus likely a heart to the King or Ten when neither side can make much of anything.

So that leaves me with five partially flawed options.
    1) 2S
    2) 2H
    3) DBL
    4) 3C
    5) PASS
    6) 2NT

Let's handle 2NT first. If you play this as natural, don't even think about bidding it.  But if  you play this as a good card raise with 3 card support (with defense), it is just about perfect. But for most posters here, I think suggesting 2NT as a raise is a bit too much, so let's forget it.
 
Vul at imps, I would probably bid 3C (limit raise or better, goodish defense. BTW, I use 2NT to show better defense than 3C but since we are ignoring that possibility, fine). My partners know I stretch with this bid, so if they will not jump to game with all hands. They will invite me to go by bidding 3D if they are a little uncertain. If both minor suits were reversed, and the overcall had been 2D I would not bid 3D because partner would not have this "3D" invite to game available. I would bid as I do when not vul (see below).

The problem with 2S is 1) I have heart support, 2) it is very unlikely to be of lead directing value because if we defend against a possible Club contract, I will be on lead, and 3) like 2NT and 3C, it may take us beyond our last makable contract of 2Hs. So 2S (and 3C and 2NT) are all out if not playing imps vulnerable.

That leaves me with double and 2Hs. I think with this hand with reasonable defense values, I would double. If my values were more offensive in nature (say SAKxxx HQJx Dxx Cxxx) I would bid 2H not vul (and surely 3C vul). What bad can happen over the dbl? If partner bids 2D, you can rebid 2H. If partner bids 2S, you will raise to 3. If parnter jumps (showing good hand and 14-15, you will surely bid game). If partner bids 2H you will pass.

I also think pass also has some merit. If partner is short in clubs, I expect him to balance back. You run the risk of partner passing only if he is long (say 3) in clubs and fairly weak. However, with this much defense and a modest fit, I think pass is too rich for me.

[keylime]

I'd bid a simple 3C here as a cuebid of the limit raise. If I have support for partner, then why muddle the issue with any other bid? If partner's got a maximum AND marked shortage in clubs, they'll go on to game. Otherwise you can play 3H and play the hand double dummy. The chances that partner happens to have 3/4 spades are somewhat unlikely.

[inquiry]

Dwayne,

You asked "(simple 3C here as a cuebid of the limit raise)... then why muddle the issue with any other bid?" The reason is 3H maybe too high. You are just the person to run borel or somesuch to determine the frequency of hands where 3H's is too high versus those where you miss game if you don't bid 3C.

As you can see from above, I provided two answers to this question, both 3C (limit or better) and DBL. You should realzie that my DBL really wasn't a strong attempt to get into spades (but hey, that would be a nice bonus if it happens). My dbl allows me to try for game while remaining safely at 2H on those hands where 3H is down one or more, without giving up on game chances. 10hcp is not really all that great opposite a precision 1H opening bid. The most we have is 25 hcp.

And since we are discussing low level penatly doubles (that you don't make and I do in another thread), let me apply the same logic to this hand. The advantage of double here then converting to 2H over partners 2D can be seen here in an auction like:

1H    2C     DBL   Pass
2D    Pass   2H    Pass
Pass 3C     Pass   Pass
?

Your partner knows, that you don't have an "offensive" raise in hearts, thus you have some defense. So he is more likely to guess the right thing to bid on each of these hands than if you bid 2H immediately (I know, you bid 3C, but work with me here).

S: x   H: ATxxx D: AKxx C: xxx  He will double
S: x  H: KQTxxx  D:AJxx C: xx  he will bid 3H

Likewise if I bid a direct 2H instead of double, parter would never double 3C with the first of these two hands (and I wouldn't hold the hand I hold here).

[keylime]

I will setup a sim right after dinner using the restraints given so far to see what percentages come out. Luckily I have a sim that I've wrote myself that I think is better than Borel or any other (can handle multiple conditions concurrently with specific arguments). For the masses, I'll run 100,000,000 tests over a sample population....20,000,000 for each HCP of opener (just to form some populations and get thus variance of means and deviation and all that fun stats stuff!).

I'll report those results in a short while.

[easy]

Quote

I will setup a sim right after dinner using the restraints given so far to see what percentages come out. Luckily I have a sim that I've wrote myself that I think is better than Borel or any other (can handle multiple conditions concurrently with specific arguments). For the masses, I'll run 100,000,000 tests over a sample population....20,000,000 for each HCP of opener (just to form some populations and get thus variance of means and deviation and all that fun stats stuff!).

I'll report those results in a short while.

Good Dwayne im sure we would all be interested in the result.

ok now ill tell you what i did with the hand. I said double. Great minds must work alike because Inquiry expressed very nicely the reason i said double as opposed to 3c. Now for part 2.

after you make the negative double the auction continues

1h 2c x p
2n  p  ??


here is my hand again so that u dont have to search for it

AKxxx  Jxx  Qx  xxx

[keylime]

Some interesting results in my sim...there is a direct correlation for double if opener is less than 14 points and a cuebid if opener is 14-15 on the button.  The test percents show that in the 11-12 HCP zone that double is normally the winning action nearly 65 percent of the time. However, in the 14-15 point zone, a cuebid is more of a winning action. For 13, the jury's out.

I'll publish the percentages once I verify that the trial was controlled with minimum error.

[inquiry]

1H-2C-X-P  
2N-P- ?

Ok. Now your rebid decisions are limited. I assume we are not vul at imp (you never said). Further, I assume you play 2NT over the DBL as showing 13 or less (jumping to 3NT with 14 to 15).  Since we are not vul, I surely don't plan to push to a 23 point game (at most). So my two choices are: PASS and 3H. ((BTW, If your agreement is to play 2NT as a stronger hand over the dbl, then I would by all means rebid 3NT)).

It is pretty sure that your next bid will probably end the auction (after 2NT they will not balance back in). Although I almost never want to play 2NT, this is a hand where I would pass.  

Swaying my decision to pass is the likelyhood that partner has 2 or maybe 1S and that my LHO may be getting a club ruff if we play in 3Hs.

[inquiry]

Quote

Some interesting results in my sim...there is a direct correlation for double if opener is less than 14 points and a cuebid if opener is 14-15 on the button.  The test percents show that in the 11-12 HCP zone that double is normally the winning action nearly 65 percent of the time. However, in the 14-15 point zone, a cuebid is more of a winning action. For 13, the jury's out.

I'll publish the percentages once I verify that the trial was controlled with minimum error.

Thanks for working on this. It is kind of cute that 3C is right about 35% of time and I was bidding 3C at imps vul when you want to get to games that make about 35% of the time. This makes my decision to bid one way vul and another not look really good. However, I think dbl is probalby not right only 65% of time when 2H is enough.  The reason is over a double, you will not necessary end up in only 2H if partner has 14-15. In otherwords, you will the 65% of the time, plus some of the 35%  partner has 14-15 you will end up in game even though you didn't cue-bid originally. As he will make some non-minimum rebid (like a jump to 3H, 3S, 3D or 3NT). So dbl works on many of these other hands too.

[easy]

Quote

you hold

akxxx    jxx   qx  xxx

playing precision partner opens 1h(11-15), and rho overcalls 2c. Your call

yeah, yeah i know looks like a no brainer but...

Ok here r both hands
xxx                    akxxx
KQT9x               jxx
Axx                   Qx
KJ                      xxx


Pard bid 2n in response to my neg x and i passed.The opponents misdefended 1/2 tricks so we went down only 4.  LOL.

Would you have done anything different with opener's or my hand?

[inquiry]

xxx               akxxx
KQT9x          jxx
Axx              Qx
KJ                 xxx

1H - (2C) - DBL - (P)
2NT? - (all pass)

This may not make your partner happy, but I think his bid was wrong. You didn't say you were playing negative free bids or not, but no matter. After the DBL, which is for takeout, your partner with shortness in their suit, should not be bidding 2NT. 2NT should be reserved for a hand with length in clubs and hearts (and good spots in clubs). Generally with this distribution I would bid 2S, but not on three small. So my choices is between 2D and 2H. It is close, and I would not disagree with anyone bidding either of them. The T9 of hearts, however, would sway me to rebid 2Hs on only five instead of bidding 2D on three. And yes, I have played in several 3-3 fits over the years, some for good results, some for bad.

Your hard work to avoid the three level when partner is weak (and without a good offensive hand) by doubling has been wasted. Why? Your partner looking at his hand said, 1) no six card heart suit, so no heart rebid, 2) no four card side suit, so no bid in either, and 3) I do have a club stopper and as flat as I can be for 1H...so walla, I rebid 2NT. This is a partner looking at his bidding problems, not the combined bidding problems of the partnership.