[Robert]

Hello awm

Are we looking at the same hands?

AK10xxx AKxx void xxx opposite Jxx Qxx QJxx xxx

You will lose three clubs and you need a 2-2 spade break or you are going to be putting that 4th heart in your pocket to avoid losing a heart, unless the suit breaks an anti percentage 3-3.

If the spades break 3-1, you have to guess the spades(unless the Queen drops singleton) to avoid going down two if the hearts also have a fairly normal 4-2 division.

The defense can also lead that 13th club and about 50% of the time, they get a trump promotion. If that 13th club is lead from in front of the AK10xxx suit, the Queen doubleton always makes a defensive trick when the 13th club is led.

Even if the Queen is singleton, that 13th club will put you to a rather nasty guess if it is led from in front of the AK10xxx holding. Do you ruff high or hook the ten?

Remember before you choose that the Queen can be Qxx in front of you or Q stiff behind you. The Qx always turns a trick with that 13th cllub led pass the AK10xxx suit.

The odds are that a decent pair will beat you somewhat more times than you will make ten tricks. Those are bad odds to bid game at MPs.

You want to bid 4S if vulneralbe at IMPs, you only need about a 38% chance to break even by bidding game. You likely have slightly better than a 38% chance.

At MPs you want to get a plus score rather than bid a below 50% game.

Regards,
Robert

[Winstonm]

3N. WTP? My partner is half Al Roth, making me half Stone(d).

Winston

[SchTsch]

I think that 2NT is the right bid.

Not because we will always get good score bidding 2NT but because we will put decision on partner as it probably should be. Everything else is a wild guess, and with this rubbish i don't want to guess anything. 2NT should be pretty accurate description of our hand so I bid it.

[Echognome]

I don't have a hand to go with this problem. It's adapted from a bidding problem book. I will add some food for thought though.

Our current hand is 3-3-4-3. Suppose we were 3-3-3-4, but with QJx of diamonds instead. Still about the same stopper, but now partner is more likely to have a doubleton diamond. In my opinion, our 4th diamond makes spades a more likely strain than NT.

[han]

A counterargument:

If the 2D has no entries than QJxx will be a double stopper and QJx will be a single stopper.

Does the 2D bid guarantee an entry? Perhaps, not if it's me.

[awm]

The game opposite AKTxxx AKxx - xxx is much better than you might expect. Suits are quite likely to break on this auction, because if the 2♦ bidder was looking at a stiff spade a 3♦ bid becomes quite likely. We're also likely to get a diamond lead on the bidding. I expect that this game will actually make dramatically more often than you would expect if you assumed that (1) opponents cards are divided randomly between their hands (2) you will get a double-dummy lead.

I should also note that two down is not really possible; if spades don't break you just play three hearts and ruff the fourth in dummy for one down.

Considering that this hand isn't really enough for partner's bidding, what's to stop partner from having the same hand plus the ♠Q, or the ♥J, or perhaps even BOTH?

Passing in this auction seems akin to passing partner's 1♠ opening with three-card support and 8-9 high, on the reasoning that "I can construct hands where 2♠ doesn't make." Sure this is true, but there are also hands where 6♠ makes, and passing seems incredibly pessimistic and anti-partnership.