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How to play this hand?

#1 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2005-October-16, 03:14

Bidding goes:
1♣* - 2♣* - 2NT* - 3♥*
Dbl - 3♠ - 4♥ - all pass

1♣ = 15+ any
2♣ = 4+♣ and 4+M
2NT = GF balanced, no good 5 card M
3♥ = P/C

Scoring: IMP

LHO leads ♣7 and RHO plays the J.
You have 2 ♠ losers and a ♦. According to the bidding, LHO should have 4-5♥s. What's the best way to play the ♥s?

Extra information (hidden):
Spoiler


What's the percentage that RHO has a stiff J or T?
What's the percentage that LHO has both J and T? (RHO small singleton or void)

Tnx
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#2 User is offline   Trpltrbl 

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Posted 2005-October-16, 07:56

Free, on Oct 16 2005, 04:14 AM, said:

What's the percentage that RHO has a stiff J or T?
What's the percentage that LHO has both J and T? (RHO small singleton or void)

Tnx

% For stiff Jack or Ten by East is 5.6522, so that isn't very big chance.

% For JT to be in West hand is 22.04351. I didn't count if West had all the ♥.
But in case you wanted to know, it is an extra 1.9565%.

GBB :)
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be ideas, and hard thought, and hard work.”
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#3 User is offline   kgr 

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Posted 2005-October-16, 16:11

Trpltrbl, on Oct 16 2005, 03:56 PM, said:

Free, on Oct 16 2005, 04:14 AM, said:

What's the percentage that RHO has a stiff J or T?
What's the percentage that LHO has both J and T? (RHO small singleton or void)

Tnx

% For stiff Jack or Ten by East is 5.6522, so that isn't very big chance.

% For JT to be in West hand is 22.04351. I didn't count if West had all the ♥.
But in case you wanted to know, it is an extra 1.9565%.

GBB :lol:

..And if East has singleton ♥ J or T then you can only make if he also has ♦K; otherwise West will get a ♣ ruff. (West will need a doubleton ♣ anyway).
....small ♥ to the 9
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Posted 2005-October-16, 22:29

Trpltrbl, on Oct 16 2005, 03:56 PM, said:

Free, on Oct 16 2005, 04:14 AM, said:

What's the percentage that RHO has a stiff J or T?
What's the percentage that LHO has both J and T? (RHO small singleton or void)

Tnx

% For stiff Jack or Ten by East is 5.6522, so that isn't very big chance.

% For JT to be in West hand is 22.04351. I didn't count if West had all the ♥.
But in case you wanted to know, it is an extra 1.9565%.

GBB :lol:

These percentages seem completely useless, as they ignore the auction.

It is very simple really: If LHO has 4 hearts, than he has JT in 3 cases (RHO small singleton), and RHO has J or T in 2 cases. If LHO has 5 hearts, well he has JT. So even ignoring the case that LHO has 5 hearts, it is 60% that he has JT.

Arend
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#5 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2005-October-17, 05:04

Where are my opponents from?
BridgeGod: my personal website with interactive problems and articles
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#6 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2005-October-17, 07:27

Fluffy, on Oct 17 2005, 12:04 PM, said:

Where are my opponents from?

My own team, it was a training :rolleyes: I played low to the 9, contract making since RHO had a small stiff. If LHO keeps his mouth shut, I'd probably not finesse and go down...
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#7 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2005-October-17, 08:41

were clubs 5-1? If they were lho could have just split and beat you. If not, you have to guess the play. If RHO has the DK, you must lead a small diamond to the jack after they split. but if LHO has the DK this wont work.
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#8 User is offline   Trpltrbl 

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Posted 2005-October-17, 09:39

cherdano, on Oct 16 2005, 11:29 PM, said:

Trpltrbl, on Oct 16 2005, 03:56 PM, said:

Free, on Oct 16 2005, 04:14 AM, said:

What's the percentage that RHO has a stiff J or T?
What's the percentage that LHO has both J and T? (RHO small singleton or void)

Tnx

% For stiff Jack or Ten by East is 5.6522, so that isn't very big chance.

% For JT to be in West hand is 22.04351. I didn't count if West had all the ♥.
But in case you wanted to know, it is an extra 1.9565%.

GBB :P

These percentages seem completely useless, as they ignore the auction.

It is very simple really: If LHO has 4 hearts, than he has JT in 3 cases (RHO small singleton), and RHO has J or T in 2 cases. If LHO has 5 hearts, well he has JT. So even ignoring the case that LHO has 5 hearts, it is 60% that he has JT.

Arend

It is a little more complicated then that actually.
With the bidding in mind, and knowing that East has maximum of 1♥, at least according to Free, the % is 85.715 that the JT is with West.
There is a 7.143% chance that West has either the J or T stiff.

GBB :)
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so much the better. If there is restlessness, I am pleased. Then let there
be ideas, and hard thought, and hard work.”
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#9 User is offline   Trpltrbl 

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Posted 2005-October-17, 09:43

Let's say just for fun that you think East might have 2♥, and find out how the % chances.
Now there is a 25 % chance that either the J or the 10 is with East.
1 Card can make a big difference.
But the % play is still to double finesse.

GBB :P
“If there is dissatisfaction with the status quo, good. If there is ferment,
so much the better. If there is restlessness, I am pleased. Then let there
be ideas, and hard thought, and hard work.”
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#10 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2005-October-17, 10:13

Trpltrbl, on Oct 17 2005, 10:43 AM, said:

Let's say just for fun that you think East might have 2♥, and find out how the % chances.
Now there is a 25 % chance that either the J or the 10 is with East.
1 Card can make a big difference.
But the % play is still to double finesse.

GBB :P

huh? are you saying if east might have a doubleton heart its right to double finesse?
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#11 User is offline   Trpltrbl 

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Posted 2005-October-17, 10:24

If you obviously know for a fact that they are 4-1 yes. With a 3-2 you don't have too, but if not sure and the bidding is indicating that it is more then likely 4-1 but might be 3-2 you still have 75% to get it right with the double finesse.

GBB :P
“If there is dissatisfaction with the status quo, good. If there is ferment,
so much the better. If there is restlessness, I am pleased. Then let there
be ideas, and hard thought, and hard work.”
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