[Echognome]

Scoring: IMP

1♠ - (3♥) - X - (P)
3♠ - (P) - 4♠ - All Pass

---

Held the South hand in a league match. I didn't particularly like my 1♠ opening and hated it more when the negative double came back around to me.

The lead was the ♣8 to the Ace followed by a club return. You win in hand and lead a heart up. LHO takes the Ace and returns a heart. You have been lucky twice now as if RHO holds up one round of clubs, then she can give her partner a ruff. If LHO exits a diamond instead of a heart, you have also had it. The only remaining question is how to play the trumps.

[Blofeld]

Low to the 9, though I haven't actually worked out if that's best.

[Walddk]

Declarer erred at trick 1 by not inserting a high club from dummy. Now East can duck all he likes, because now I have the legitimate chance of Qxx in spades on side.

When declarer played small from dummy East could indeed have defeated the contract by ducking. As it went, there is nothing more the defence can do if I (can) guess correctly.

You write that West could have beaten the contract by switching to a diamond when in with ♥A. That's not true. I will win the ace and do the same as I would have done on a heart return (see later).

I must guess if West is 2722 or 3622 with no ♠Q. I will go for 2722 although I know that he could easily have pre-empted with only 6 hearts non vulnerable against vulnerable. The only 2-4 trump break I can pick up (apart from the very unlikely Q10 doubleton with West) is xx opposite Q10xx.

10x and Qx with West won't help me. So I will win the heart (or diamond) return and finesse ♠9. Back to dummy with a diamond (or heart if West switched to a diamond) and finesse ♠J next. If all goes well, I draw the last trumps and discard one of my diamond losers on dummy's 4th club.

Roland

[Echognome]

At trick 1 I put in the 9, not small. RHO won the A and returned the suit. I won in hand with the Q, playing small from dummy. So it looks like it was an error at trick 2, not trick 1. (Presumably you want me to win in dummy and play on trumps immediately.)

[Walddk]

Now that you did insert the 9, I win the club return in hand like you did and lead a heart up. How good is my RHO? When LHO returned a heart, do I "know" that hearts are 7-2? I mean, would RHO always give honest count? I need to know my opponents first.

Everything being equal I will go for the 2722 shape with LHO and tackle trumps the way I did in my first post.

Roland

[Trpltrbl]

Trump for 5 tricks is only 19.3789%.
Technical correct play is the Ace first and if all follow low a small to the J.
By playing small to the 9 you only go for 3 specific hands.
QTxx which is 9.6894%
QTx which is 7.1056%
QT which is 1.6149%
18.4099 % is close second.

GBB

[Trpltrbl]

Ok, now that I looked at the bidding. Seems 3♥ already has shown 9 cards and with singleton ♦ he would have lead it. So Looks like he has a 2-7-2-2 hand.
Now that I know that, hehehe, I would play small to the 9.
Need no worse then 4-2 if my small trump are really the small ones.
I shouldn't be listening to The House of Blue Light when posting

GBB

[Walddk]

Trpltrbl, on Oct 12 2005, 05:40 PM, said:

Trump for 5 tricks is only 19.3789%.
Technical correct play is the Ace first and if all follow low a small to the J.
By playing small to the 9 you only go for 3 specific hands.
QTxx which is 9.6894%
QTx which is 7.1056%
QT which is 1.6149%
18.4099 % is close second.

GBB 

I am sorry, but although your calculations are very interesting and accurate, they are also pretty useless in this context. Who cares about a priori probabilities when the auction has told us that those figures are no longer valid?

Everything is not equal here. West pre-empted with 3♥. You seem to forget that.

By the way, a priori it's just as good to finesse the jack on the first round than cashing the ace first.

Roland

[Trpltrbl]

Walddk, on Oct 12 2005, 10:51 AM, said:

By the way, a priori it's just as good to finesse the jack on the first round than cashing the ace first.

Roland

Yes, you are absolutely right. Forgot to mention that.
Darn Mitzi Dupree

GBB