[Sue601]

Studying from BridgeBase tutorial (SAYC) from ACBL written by Fred Gitelman

South (Dealer):
K Q J 5 2
A Q
J 7 2
A Q 9

North:
A 6 4 3
J 3
A 10 6 3
K 4 3

My guess was
1S (P) 2D (P)
3NT (P) 6S (All Pass)

I've been told this is Not a slam hand and should not be taken past 4S. But I'm not sure how North would know that after South's 3NT bid. Based on combined hand point count it seems North would attempt some slam bid or at least slam conversation.

My understanding of the bids are:
South opens.....North forces additional bidding with change of suit....South rebids using a limit bid showing 19-21 pts....North now "captain." North does the math and takes it to small slam based on combined total point range of 32 to 34.

I'm not interested that it is a slam that will go down since North can't actually see South's hand. Just trying to figure how North would bid differently based on the bidding info available.

Remember....Beginner here...
Sue

[Walddk]

Did Fred really write that the 3NT rebid shows 19-21 hcp? I don't think so; 18-19 balanced is what I teach my students. Besides, I would not respond 2♦ with North's hand. A limit raise in spades, whether that is 3♠ or 3♦ Bergen (maybe 3♣ if playing reverse Bergen), is what the North hand is worth in my opinion.

However, one may easily get to slam anyway, although I agree that 6♠ is very poor. Add ♦9 to one of the hands and it becomes a great deal better. I don't think there is a method that can discover whether ♦9 is there or not.

Roland

[kfgauss]

Sue601, on Sep 26 2005, 09:24 PM, said:

Studying from BridgeBase tutorial (SAYC) from ACBL written by Fred Gitelman

South (Dealer):
K Q J 5 2
A Q
J 7 2
A Q 9

North:
A 6 4 3
J 3
A 10 6 3
K 4 3

My guess was
1S (P) 2D (P)
3NT (P) 6S (All Pass)

I've been told this is Not a slam hand and should not be taken past 4S.  But I'm not sure how North would know that after South's 3NT bid.  Based on combined hand point count it seems North would attempt some slam bid or at least slam conversation. 

My understanding of the bids are:
South opens.....North forces additional bidding with change of suit....South rebids using a limit bid showing 19-21 pts....North now "captain." North does the math and takes it to small slam based on combined total point range of 32 to 34.

I'm not interested that it is a slam that will go down since North can't actually see South's hand.  Just trying to figure how North would bid differently based on the bidding info available. 

Remember....Beginner here...
Sue

First of all, 6S isn't ridiculous. The contract as it is is 25% (♥K onside plus ♦KQ together -- there's an endplay), and we've all been in worse slams. It's unfortunate that partner's doubleton is the same as your own. If we swap ♥ and ♣ in partner's hand, then it's basically just on the ♥ finesse and so is 50%.

If we're simply going to be counting points (which is ok at a beginning stage -- though beware that counting points isn't always best), then we should notice that 32-34 isn't always 33+, which is the amount we should have for 6S. (Side note: we should count distribution points too because we have a fit, adding 1 point for the heart doubleton, but then a correction is to subtract that 1 point because we should only count points for either shortness or honors in a given suit, so the Jx is only 1 point, so we only have 12, not 13 -- so I get 31-33, but not including the correction is ok too and doesn't really matter here.) This suggests that we should invite slam in spades. A 5♠ bid seems like a nice simple way to do that. Then partner with his minimum (19) can pass.

(I agree with Roland's comments on your initial 2D bid [if we've decided this hand is only worth 12 points, a limit raise in spades describes it nicely], and also that 3NT typically shows 18-19 because a 1NT opening is 15-17 and a 2NT opening is 20-21. Notrump ranges are an exception to the "min = 13-15, med = 16-18, max = 19-21" framework unless you play that 1NT = 16-18, which isn't SAYC and I don't think is what Fred is teaching.)

Andy

[edit: cleared up discussion of distribution points above]

[mr1303]

Presumably you bid 2D first because you rated the North hand as a game force. I'm not sure if a game forcing spade raise such as a Jacoby 2NT is a method with which you are familiar, if so then this is a sound way to progress. Alternatively after 3NT a 4S bid I believe would show something close to this hand. Then if partner has slam aspirations he/she can go on.

[Chamaco]

kfgauss, on Sep 26 2005, 10:03 PM, said:

First of all, 6S isn't ridiculous. The contract as it is is 25% (♥K onside plus ♦KQ together -- there's an endplay),

I think 25% is an overstatement, the combined chances of ♦KQ being together and/or an endplay should be < than 50% (I'll gladly leave to the math junkies the task figure out the correct number).

As Roland pointed out, having the ♦9 (or even the 8, in some cases) would increase a lot the chances of success of an elimination and throw in.

[joker_gib]

I would not bid 2♦ (but maybe you only have that in your arsenal) but I would force to game with north's hand (12 HCP's with 2 aces, a doubleton and 4 trumps are enough to consider this hand far better than a limit raise).

I would also play 6♠ after north showed 18-19 !

Alain

[Sue601]

Walddk, on Sep 26 2005, 04:43 PM, said:

Did Fred really write that the 3NT rebid shows 19-21 hcp? I don't think so; 18-19 balanced is what I teach my students. Besides, I would not respond 2♦ with North's hand. A limit raise in spades, whether that is 3♠ or 3♦ Bergen (maybe 3♣ if playing reverse Bergen), is what the North hand is worth in my opinion.
Roland

Oops, guess I better check that 3NT bid.

About the 2D (I don't know Bergen). I've been using a jump limit raise (3S) as 10 -11 pts and the change of suit bid (2D) as showing opening points and a chance to show the trump support at the next bid. I don't know where I got that information--perhaps some other source. Am I off on that idea too?

So much for me to learn....So greatful for this message board.

Sue

[Walddk]

Sue601, on Sep 27 2005, 04:22 PM, said:

About the 2D (I don't know Bergen).  I've been using a jump limit raise (3S) as 10 -11 pts and the change of suit bid (2D) as showing opening points and a chance to show the trump support at the next bid.  I don't know where I got that information--perhaps some other source.  Am I off on that idea too?

1. I suggest that a jump raise shows 10-12 (distributional points included). This hand has 12 hcp and no extra, because you can't count ♥J and the doubleton at the same time. The same applies to Qx.

2. 2♦ is only game forcing if you play 2-over-1. If you play Standard American it is a 1-round force with 10+ hcp.

Whether that particular hand is good enough to force to game is a matter of judgement. It's close, but I don't think it's worth more than a limit raise. If you think it's good enough for a game force, you should rather adopt Jacoby 2NT (forcing to game with 4+ spades) than bid 2♦ first.

Roland

[P_Marlowe]

Sue601, on Sep 27 2005, 09:22 AM, said:

Walddk, on Sep 26 2005, 04:43 PM, said:

Did Fred really write that the 3NT rebid shows 19-21 hcp? I don't think so; 18-19 balanced is what I teach my students. Besides, I would not respond 2♦ with North's hand. A limit raise in spades, whether that is 3♠ or 3♦ Bergen (maybe 3♣ if playing reverse Bergen), is what the North hand is worth in my opinion.
Roland

Oops, guess I better check that 3NT bid.

About the 2D (I don't know Bergen). I've been using a jump limit raise (3S) as 10 -11 pts and the change of suit bid (2D) as showing opening points and a chance to show the trump support at the next bid. I don't know where I got that information--perhaps some other source. Am I off on that idea too?

So much for me to learn....So greatful for this message board.

Sue

Hi Sue,

you are right, that your sequence shows opening strength
for the responding hand (=> hence a game force) and fit.

More precise:

1S - 2D
2??? - 3S

shows a strong hand with fit and slam interest

1S - 2D
2??? - 4S

is called a delayed game raise, showing a hand 13-15 strength,
fit and a source of tricks.

The main problem with your sequence is, that the diamond suit is
far to weak.

With kind regards
Marlowe
But your

[kfgauss]

Chamaco, on Sep 27 2005, 10:44 AM, said:

kfgauss, on Sep 26 2005, 10:03 PM, said:

First of all, 6S isn't ridiculous. The contract as it is is 25% (♥K onside plus ♦KQ together -- there's an endplay),

I think 25% is an overstatement, the combined chances of ♦KQ being together and/or an endplay should be < than 50% (I'll gladly leave to the math junkies the task figure out the correct number).

As Roland pointed out, having the ♦9 (or even the 8, in some cases) would increase a lot the chances of success of an elimination and throw in.

This is sort of irrelevant to the main point of this thread, but as I claimed this number, here's why:

♦KQ together is ~50% (it's a bit less because once you have one honor, you have a bit less space for the other, but not by much). If this is the case and there's no diamond lead from nothing (surely the chance of a heart lead from the King, which is actually fairly likely when it's offside, will pick up at least whatever I lose due to a diamond lead from nothing).

Whenever ♦KQ are together and you find the ♥K onside (and trump are not 4-0), there's an endplay: draw trump, eliminate ♣ and ♥ and lead a diamond to the 10.

Andy

[Chamaco]

kfgauss, on Sep 27 2005, 04:18 PM, said:

♦KQ together is ~50% (it's a bit less because once you have one honor, you have a bit less space for the other, but not by much).

I hope not to be talking nonsense but I am pretty sure that the probability of KQ being in the same hand is not even close to 50%:
I think that KQ together, without other distributional info, is about 25%.

The a priori probability of holding each honor in one hand being 50% , and the probability of holding both is the product of these probabilities, making it close to 25%.

These numbers change once we know the exact shape and/or if we have info about the expected strong hand.

===
EDIT
Alright I saw the mistake in my reasoning.
My calculation was accounting for KQ *in a specific hand*.
If it does not matter which hand holds KQ, the probability doubles and gets close to 50%.

Good, I learned something :-)