[Poky]

MP. All love.

1♥ 3♠ Dbl 4♠
???

♠A
♥QJ109xx
♦Kx
♣A6xx

[mike777]

5C


Another FTL decision. 13-3+1=11 tricks.
13=total tricks, minus three=shortest 2 suits, Plus one =estimated 22 Working HCP.

[P_Marlowe]

Hi,

5H, maybe / probably 5C is better.

With kind regards
Marlowe

[Beto]

Jlall, on Sep 21 2005, 02:50 PM, said:

BTW 4N should be an option (I seriously considered it). That is the bid I would make with 6H and 4D.

Why not bid 4♦ with 6H4D?

Would you pass forcing and then pull to 4NT if you wanted to ask aces?
Is this pass really forcing?

[whereagles]

5♣. Slam is a bit iffy, but there's no way I pass/dbl this

[bridge2k]

5C.

I am not favor in defence with this hand and my hand is not a minimum. 5C is straightforward.

[inquiry]

I will abstain. I think 4NT is still an option with this hand. IT can't show desire to play in either minor on this auction. IF partner can't bid 4♣, then I will bid 5♥ over 5♦. That is, if he has both minors, he should bid 5♣. A sode benefit to 4NT is if partner has Kx or Ax of hearts, he will place you in the higher scoring 5♥ contract.

If I wanted my partner to choose between the minors for real (say I was 0544 or 1543), I would double 4♠. Yes, yes, I know, you play 4NT for takeout and double for penalty... if I played with YOU I would try to play the way you play... but here I get to bid as if my regular partner was across the table.

[kenrexford]

I'd bid 5NT, personally, as a chouice-of-slams call (long hearts, great fit for a minor). If partner has even a stiff heart honors, I expect 12 tricks without two losers. If partner has two small hearts, with something like AQJxx in diamonds and KQJxx in clubs, life is unfortunate. If he has those same minors and a stiff heart, 6C makes. You cannot reduce partner enough for a slam to fail more than 50% of the time and yet partner have a reason to make this negative double. More precisely, I find it hard to imagine that the likelihood of a slam failing in this auction is greater than 50%.

[inquiry]

Jlall, on Sep 21 2005, 02:45 PM, said:

inquiry, on Sep 21 2005, 01:38 PM, said:

I will abstain. I think 4NT is still an option with this hand. IT can't show desire to play in either minor on this auction. IF partner can't bid 4♣, then I will bid 5♥ over 5♦. That is, if he has both minors, he should bid 5♣.

My initial thinking was the same as yours. Then I decided with 0544 I would not X...so that is where our thinking differed. I think 4N is very reasonable and should have been added to the poll.

Well, actually, I am hard pressed to be 5440 because I open nice hands with this distribution something else. And he definition of nice is pretty loose (14, 15 hcp or better with 5 contols or more). Of course I guess one could be 0544 and weak, but then pass of 4♠ and then pull partners double to 4NT to offer choice seems the way to handle those hands.

Still, leaving 4NT out of the poll was an oversight I think.

[Fluffy]

I also find 4NT kinda appealing, but anyway I don't see much advantages on ruffing a ♥ in dummy and will bid 5♥.

[mr1303]

Does anyone think pass is forcing here? If so, I might well make 1. However, no-one really seems to think so.

[Chamaco]

I would overbid to slam, I am just unsure how to deliver the "pick a slam" message:
what are 5S and 5NT supposed to mean here ?

Alright, rereading this post I can see that "pick a slam" is somewhat foolish (no support for diamnds): nevertheless, I'd like to know, from the theoretical standpoint, which bid would be "pick a slam" in such a sequence :-)

[whereagles]

Mauro, here I would take

5♠ = spade void, grand slam try. Fit for one of the minors or solid hearts.
5NT = pick a slam, support for both minors.

[000002]

mike777, on Sep 21 2005, 12:07 PM, said:

5C


Another FTL decision. 13-3+1=11 tricks.
13=total tricks, minus three=shortest 2 suits, Plus one =estimated 22 Working HCP.

could you explain?
thanks

[mike777]

000002, on Sep 26 2005, 07:55 PM, said:

mike777, on Sep 21 2005, 12:07 PM, said:

5C


Another FTL decision. 13-3+1=11 tricks.
13=total tricks, minus three=shortest 2 suits, Plus one =estimated 22 Working HCP.

could you explain?
thanks

Very happy too. FTL is Lawrence new book, Fought the law. He also has an internet site. Basically his response to very popular and very good books by Larry Cohen.

http://web.telia.com/~u40127101/

His formula seems to have been revised, basically the same but shorter. This is the book, older version.

13=total tricks
minus or plus estimated Dist short suit tricks.
minus or plus estimated working hcp.

13=total tricks
minus 3 =estimated 2 shortest suits in my hand and partners.
plus one=I estimate 22-24 working hcp which equals plus one. 19-21=zero, etc.......

13-3+1=11 tricks we can take.

You can also estimate the opp hands.

I have been very pleased with "FTL" when trying to decide whether to bid one more or double in competitive situation.

Many object to such a math formula and prefer other methods.
Expert Judgement may be much better. I only suggest you try it out and see if you are happy with results. In any case keep in mind you must estimate short suits and estimate working high card points so judgement is needed. Your mileage may vary.

[000002]

mike777, on Sep 26 2005, 08:53 PM, said:

13=total tricks
minus 3 =estimated 2 shortest suits in my hand and partners.

thanks, mike

[jdeegan]

mike777, on Sep 21 2005, 12:07 PM, said:

Another FTL decision. 13-3+1=11 tricks.
13=total tricks, minus three=shortest 2 suits, Plus one =estimated 22 Working HCP.

I am beginning to like this FTL more and more.