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Lead Problem

#1 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2005-September-20, 20:24

Scoring: IMP

1♣(1) - 1♥(2)
2♦ - 2NT
3NT - 4NT
All Pass

(1) 17+ hcp
(2) 8+ hcp, 5+ ♥s

You are playing in an expert team's match.

What is your lead?
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#2 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2005-September-20, 20:29

Very tough. I've gone back and fourth between a heart and a club. I'll go with a heart as my spots are compelling. I think I need to be agressive on this auction. Hopefully their heart holding is weak and i can get 3 hearts and a spade, or 1 spade, 2 hearts, and a trick in partners hand. If my diamond spots were better, i'd go passive with a club and hope they just dont have 10 tricks.
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#3 User is online   mike777 

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Posted 2005-September-20, 20:39

4 of clubs.
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#4 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2005-September-21, 03:10

Clubs.

Heart and Diamonds is out, so that leaves
club and spades.

Marlowe
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#5 User is offline   Chamaco 

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Posted 2005-September-21, 04:34

I try the spade Ace.

This could work very well or very bad,
but I am not fond of leading clubs here, and diamonds or hearts can be very risky too.

From the bidding, I infer that if someone has 4 spades, it will be dummy, and I would lead through dummy.

-----------------

EDIT:
Sorry, did not see the quantitative raise to 4NT, I was assuming a lead vs 3NT.
That makes the A of ♠ lead much more dangerous IMO.
I'll settle for a club lead too, dspite the fact I do not like it, but the alternatives seem quite unappealing....
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#6 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2005-September-21, 05:33

♠ without confidence
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#7 User is offline   joker_gib 

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Posted 2005-September-21, 06:43

I'll go passive with a club but it's probably wrong ;)
Alain
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#8 User is offline   pclayton 

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Posted 2005-September-21, 09:34

♥2

Opps were sniffing at a slam, so they are max for their bidding. Pard has approximately 2-3 points here, and I hope its the ♥QJ or the ♥Q and a slow spade or club trick.

If pard doesn't hold those cards, I don't see much hope here.
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#9 User is offline   Al_U_Card 

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Posted 2005-September-21, 09:48

They appear to be missing more like 11-12 hcp. Declarer may have downgraded his hand due to his H holding so I will not help him resolve the issue. A club is my only choice unless the 2D bid did not show a good suit......
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#10 User is offline   whereagles 

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Posted 2005-September-21, 11:32

Club. Heart seems risky, diams rates to go no where, spade doesn't appeal to me.
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#11 User is offline   bridge2k 

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Posted 2005-September-21, 12:30

Club.

I choose to be passive on this hand.
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#12 User is offline   kenrexford 

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Posted 2005-September-21, 12:53

If I am playing in an expert match, my team usually is outgunned. So, I decide to be aggressive. I will attack with the somewhat strange lead of the heart 10. I hope to catch declarer with the stiff nine, dummy with AJxxx, and partner with Q7x. This works wonders. ;-)

Notably, this also caters to partner having Q9x.
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#13 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2005-September-21, 12:56

declarer was the one who bid 1H, so stiff 9 is unlikely :D
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#14 User is offline   Al_U_Card 

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Posted 2005-September-21, 13:07

Jlall, on Sep 21 2005, 01:56 PM, said:

declarer was the one who bid 1H, so stiff 9 is unlikely :D

I hate it when my dyslexia kicks in......The H lead through the strong hand is a decent choice (I was seeing it thru the H hand.......) You will end up with at least 2 H tricks but the C lead still has quite a lot of merit.
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#15 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2005-September-21, 13:45

♥2.

My ♦ length is actually bad news, since, with my spots, declarer will have 4 tricks in the suit. Both opps probably hold a ♠ card so the ♠A will never be a positive move for us: at best it loses a tempo and at worst it blows 1 or 2 tricks.

The ♣ is passive from our perspective but you are not beating this contract by establishing partner's suit :) And it may very well remove a two way guess, so it is not exactly safe.

The ♦ is probably the most passive but it is giving up: hardly the name of the game at imps.

So it comes down to the ♥ suit. There is at least a decent chance that dummy is hitting with 4=1=5=3 or 3=1=5=4. I hope for the latter, with partner holding a ♣ entry and Q9x of ♥.

I infer that there is a lead to beat this, since the hand is posted :D At the table, I would still go with the ♥, but I would also give odds of about 20-1 that this contract is cold.

I find it almost impossible to construct a hand on which 4N goes down unless one or both of the opps was speeding. Maybe LHO upgraded Kxx x AK1098 AQxx to a 1♣ bid and responder has QJx AJ7xx Qx J109, hoping that the ♦Q is worth the push.
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#16 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2005-September-21, 14:00

Scoring: IMP


Mike is right in that the contract IS cold. I chose the ♠A without a whole lot of confidence. I felt it was the only hope of setting up some tricks for the defense and their spade stopper might be tenuous. When three rounds of spades are played at the declarer, it does put a lot more pressure on him and it turned out that he went one down. Perhaps it is a more interesting play problem.

For the play of the hand see here (note that I have rotated the deal for convenience):

http://online.bridgebase.com/myhands/hands...rname=echognome
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#17 Guest_Jlall_*

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Posted 2005-September-21, 14:07

I didn't look to see how it was played at your table. Declarer should pitch a diamond on the third spade. He can cross to the CK, and lead the HQ. Let's say you win and get out the heart 10. Now he cashes 3 clubs the ace of diamonds, cashes 3 clubs ending in hand. RHO has all 4! Now he cashes a heart pitching a club and rho again shows out. so rho is 6-2-1-4. So just finesse the diamond. Perhaps this line is double dummy, I haven't fully analyzed it.
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#18 User is offline   Echognome 

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Posted 2005-September-21, 14:27

You can see the play on the link. It went pretty much as you said, until the heart Q was lead and ducked. Now when the 9♥ was lead to the J it was taken by the K and THEN the ♥10 was played. Dummy must now choose whether the 10th tricks is coming in diamonds or clubs without a complete count.
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