BBO Discussion Forums: Should have checked for 7NT first - BBO Discussion Forums

http://tinyurl.com/q6x9nkh

13 top tricks (counting 5 diamonds) and yet it just goes straight to 7♦. Then it gets ruffed and doesn't even make. Surely there's a better way to bid this than to just jump all the way.

This hand was played in MBC at IMPs. Advanced or Basic GIB?

How would you propose that the auction proceed? Even when West knows East holds ♥K ♦KQ, he can only count 12 certain tricks in NT. There are several opportunities for the 13th, but there are even more opportunities for the 13th in diamonds. It very well may be that at IMPs EV of 7♦ is greater than EV of 7NT, but GIB is never going to do that kind of detailed analysis anyway. A few sims and off we go...

It was advanced GIB.

And yes, it's true, in this case every bidding sequence I can come up with that anyone would even remotely realistically bid does seem to end at 7♦. But I still feel that it should make more bids along to way to try to check if there is some way it can find that 7NT before just straight up jumping to 7♦. If the hands changed just a little bit then it'd be possible to tell it had 7NT and it probably would have bid it the same way as this.

For instance, what if East had J♣? Then through the whole RKCB + Queen ask process it could find out about the ♥K ♦KQ, then it could add up the tricks to come up with 13, and then it would have probably bid this same thing and it wouldn't be the best bid.

It would be pointless for GIB to probe for 7NT. GIB cannot count 13 tricks for 7NT even when it has all the tricks in Aces, Kings and a solid suit or suits. See the recent thread "Negative Simulation" for an example. Here GIB would also have to locate the SQ to assure 7NT, something I expect may be difficult even for many world-class experts.

iandayre, on 2015-December-14, 14:23, said:

♠Qx would not help... ♥KQx would... as AyunuS suggested, ♣J helps too... as does a sixth diamond... none of which is probably knowable.