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Is It a Guess Lead Question

#1 User is offline   eagles123 

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Posted 2015-February-12, 13:32

We are silent opps bidding is:

1d - 2c - 2n - 3n ap

opps are playing acol

QJ62
Kj65
T6
T92

is there a clear reason to lead one major rather than another or is this a guess? or should i lead a minor?

scoring is MP

many thanks,

Eagles
"definitely that's what I like to play when I'm playing standard - I want to be able to bid diamonds because bidding good suits is important in bridge" - Meckstroth's opinion on weak 2 diamond
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#2 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2015-February-12, 15:42

At IMPS (where setting the contract is a major objective) I would lead a spade.
At MP, where not giving away a trick can be just as important as setting them, I would
lead the heart Q on the theory that LHO has a long suit and is therefore less likely
to table an inconvenient H(T9)x holding or even Hxx).
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#3 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2015-February-13, 02:25

Hi,

the normal lead is an unbid suit, given say have bid the minors,
the normal lead is a major.
Spades is your better suit, you need less from partner to avoid
blowing a trick, basically the 10 is enough, if partner has the
Ace of hearts, your chances of getting 4 are really good, i.e.
if you want to set the contract quickly this is your best chance.

Most likely clubs are breaking either 33 or 32, i.e. they have a
source of tricks.

So from this ... at MP a spade, at IMPs a heart.

With kind regards
Marlowe
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#4 User is offline   gordontd 

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Posted 2015-February-13, 02:48

The other responders seem to be looking at a different hand than the one I see! One of them wants to lead a card that isn't in the given hand, and the other thinks QJ62 is a better suit than KJ65. I would lead a heart.
Gordon Rainsford
London UK
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#5 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2015-February-13, 06:10

View Postgordontd, on 2015-February-13, 02:48, said:

The other responders seem to be looking at a different hand than the one I see! One of them wants to lead a card that isn't in the given hand, and the other thinks QJ62 is a better suit than KJ65. I would lead a heart.


I know the hand as I was sitting opposite eagles123, but is leading the better suit always right ? Here if partner has K, the K might get you in to cash the 4th one, if partner has the Q, it's less likely the spades will be an entry. This is probably more of an IMPs argument than a MPs one, but I think it still applies to some extent.
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#6 User is offline   masonbarge 

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Posted 2015-February-13, 14:51

View Posteagles123, on 2015-February-12, 13:32, said:

We are silent opps bidding is:

1d - 2c - 2n - 3n ap

opps are playing acol

QJ62
Kj65
T6
T92

is there a clear reason to lead one major rather than another or is this a guess? or should i lead a minor?

scoring is MP

many thanks,

Eagles


Without doubt the Q, even if the bidding were 1NT-3NT. Leading from KJ is extremely dangerous and results in loss of a trick way too often. QJxx without the 10 or 9 is also not optimal but a notch up, and just as likely to hurt them. Plus, heart K is a better potential entry.

Have you read David Bird's book?
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#7 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2015-February-14, 12:27

View Postgszes, on 2015-February-12, 15:42, said:

At IMPS (where setting the contract is a major objective) I would lead a spade.
At MP, where not giving away a trick can be just as important as setting them, I would
lead the heart Q on the theory that LHO has a long suit and is therefore less likely
to table an inconvenient H(T9)x holding or even Hxx).


Now if we can just get this gszes guy to actually READ the hand properly these ramblings might
begin to make some sort of sense. Mumble grumble AT IMPS our best shot is quick tricks on a hand
where the splits look favorable for the opps. I would lead a HEART.

At MP where giving up a trick can be just as disastrous as setting the contract can be positive, I would
choose the spade Q. Dummy is less likely to have an inconvenient holding like (A or K)[(T or 9) x or even
xx]. The spade suit still has chances of being the best lead and gives up a trick less often.

I think the commentary now matches the hand shown in the OP sorry about that.
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#8 User is offline   gordontd 

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Posted 2015-February-14, 14:23

I question whether leading from QJxx is safer than from KJxx. In my experience it often seems to blow a trick when declarer has something like Kxx opposite ATx.
Gordon Rainsford
London UK
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#9 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2015-February-14, 15:03

I agree with Mason re the spade lead. Obviously there are arrangements where it can go worse even with any given card, but in general leading from QJxx is safeish if P has the A, K or T, leading from KJxx is only safeish if P has the A or Q.

KJxx was almost the worst holding in bridge to lead from in (both) Bird and Anthias' books.
The "4 is a transfer to 4" award goes to Jinksy - PhilKing
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#10 User is offline   gordontd 

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Posted 2015-February-15, 03:19

View PostCyberyeti, on 2015-February-13, 06:10, said:

is leading the better suit always right ?

Possibly not, but I was responding to the post that said:

View PostP_Marlowe, on 2015-February-13, 02:25, said:

Spades is your better suit

By all means choose to lead spades, but not for that reason.
Gordon Rainsford
London UK
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#11 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2015-February-15, 04:04

View Postgordontd, on 2015-February-15, 03:19, said:

Possibly not, but I was responding to the post that said:

By all means choose to lead spades, but not for that reason.

I wrote it, maybe I should have used "safer" instead of "better", but I also
explained why I thought spade the "better" suit.
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#12 User is offline   Free 

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Posted 2015-February-15, 04:48

Leading either Major requires a top honor in partner's hand to be successful. I would lead a because I'm more likely to get an entry to my hand in .
"It may be rude to leave to go to the bathroom, but it's downright stupid to sit there and piss yourself" - blackshoe
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#13 User is offline   BillPatch 

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Posted 2015-March-02, 09:03

Updated to show Older commentary on same hand I simulated today on other thread.
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#14 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2015-March-02, 09:38

View Posteagles123, on 2015-February-12, 13:32, said:

scoring is MP you hold Q J 6 2 K J 6 5 T 6 T 9 2
Opps are playing acol. We are silent opps bidding is:
(1) - (2) -
(2N) - (3N) AP
Is there a clear reason to lead one major rather than another?
or is this a guess?
or should i lead a minor?
IMO Q = 10. 2 = 9, 5 = 8, T = 5, T = 4.
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#15 User is offline   BillPatch 

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Posted 2015-March-02, 11:22

View Postnige1, on 2015-March-02, 09:38, said:

IMO Q = 10. 2 = 9, 5 = 8, T = 5, T = 4.

Based on the simulation I posted on the other thread with this title:Q=10, 2=7.2, 5=7, 10=5, 10=2.

At IMPs: Q=10, 2=8, 10=6, 5=5, 10=2
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