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What is a probability of a deal being passed out?

#1 User is offline   mikl_plkcc 

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Posted 2021-September-03, 11:59

As title. Among real world bridge competitions, how likely is a deal going to be passed out?
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#2 User is offline   LBengtsson 

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Posted 2021-September-03, 14:03

with lighter openings I would say, I guess, <1%
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#3 User is offline   mikeh 

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Posted 2021-September-03, 15:02

View PostLBengtsson, on 2021-September-03, 14:03, said:

with lighter openings I would say, I guess, <1%

Sounds about right. I haven’t played a huge amount the past two years, compared to many, but I’d guessestimate around 1,000-1,500 boards, about half against very good players. I don’t actually recall any pass outs! I’m not saying there were none, but I am saying they’re very rare these days.

Now, in my partnerships we open virtually all 11 counts, other than in 4th seat, and in one we play some 10-12 1N, but we don’t play Meckwell Lite, which routinely (for many) open 1M with 8-15. But even mediocre club players open light these days…I blame the fatuous Rule of 20😏
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#4 User is offline   mikl_plkcc 

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Posted 2021-September-03, 15:19

View Postmikeh, on 2021-September-03, 15:02, said:

Sounds about right. I haven’t played a huge amount the past two years, compared to many, but I’d guessestimate around 1,000-1,500 boards, about half against very good players. I don’t actually recall any pass outs! I’m not saying there were none, but I am saying they’re very rare these days.

Now, in my partnerships we open virtually all 11 counts, other than in 4th seat, and in one we play some 10-12 1N, but we don’t play Meckwell Lite, which routinely (for many) open 1M with 8-15. But even mediocre club players open light these days…I blame the fatuous Rule of 20��

I still mainly use rule of 20 to decide opening at the 1st or 2nd seat, but rule of 19 at the 3rd or 4th seat, provided the suit involved is good quality.

Meanwhile, in the club that I played yesterday, there was a deal containing a 12 HCP 5422 at the second seat which got passed out in 2 tables out of 7.

Also, is it possible to construct a hand where the optimal double-dummy contract is passing out? (i.e. no side can make any contract on a double dummy play)
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#5 User is offline   PrecisionL 

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Posted 2021-September-03, 19:06

Just this week I have passed out two hands in 4th seat with ~11 hcp and 7cds or less in the majors. Played 18 games ( 324 hands) 2/324 = 0.7%

One hand was not passed out at any other table. No other hands passed out. Strange that it was me that passed out both of them. Posted Image
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#6 User is offline   johnu 

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Posted 2021-September-03, 19:08

View PostPrecisionL, on 2021-September-03, 19:06, said:

No other hands passed out. Strange that it was me that passed out both of them. Posted Image

Yep, what were the odds on that? :)
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#7 User is offline   akwoo 

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Posted 2021-September-03, 19:28

Having played in partnerships that are outliers in both directions, I can say it varies a lot.

Depends not only on the strength of the field but also local tendencies on how light to open and how aggressively to preempt.
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#8 User is offline   Stephen Tu 

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Posted 2021-September-03, 23:04

According to a Pavlicek study of tens of thousands of deals at high level IMP events, deals are passed out ~0.24% of the time.
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#9 User is offline   mycroft 

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Posted 2021-September-04, 08:32

Yes, there are "par zero" hands - Thomas Andrews has made a study of them.
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#10 User is offline   Douglas43 

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Posted 2021-September-05, 02:31

In reply to precisionL

Just this week I have passed out two hands in 4th seat with ~11 hcp and 7cds or less in the majors. Played 18 games ( 324 hands) 2/324 = 0.7%<br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); font-size: 13px; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 248);"><br style="color: rgb(28, 40, 55); font-size: 13px; background-color: rgb(248, 248, 248);">One hand was not passed out at any other table. No other hands passed out. Strange that it was me that passed out both of them


View Postjohnu, on 2021-September-03, 19:08, said:

Yep, what were the odds on that? :)


You'd have hade some company if I'd been in the field.
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#11 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2021-September-05, 05:26

View Postmycroft, on 2021-September-04, 08:32, said:

Yes, there are "par zero" hands - Thomas Andrews has made a study of them.

Thomas Andrews also constructed a deal where all 4 players can make 3N, as declarer :)
Presumably. if an opponent declares 3N, then you can overcall 4N-1, as a cheap sacrifice :)


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#12 User is offline   Cthulhu D 

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Posted 2021-September-07, 01:39

Surely the +EV of opening in 4th is sharply down given the tendency of partner to be more aggressive in 2nd, though maybe this is offset by people opening more aggressively in 3rd
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#13 User is offline   AL78 

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Posted 2021-September-07, 02:54

Had a passout at the local club pairs yesterday evening. I was playing with a decent partner and he passed in 4th seat holding ♠J2 ♥KQ ♦K9742 ♣KT97, on the basis it was a poor 12 count and opening just lets the opps in if they hold a major. Unfortunately I held a flat 11 count with both majors ♠Q985 ♥AT83 ♦A8 ♣J83, so we got a poor score when one NS pair bid and made 2NT and another took East off in 2♥ (the one other table also passed it out).
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#14 User is online   DavidKok 

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Posted 2021-September-07, 03:52

Looks like a normal pass for both hands. It happens.
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#15 User is online   pescetom 

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Posted 2021-September-07, 06:29

I would have opened that 11 hcp with both majors, and I'm not a particularly aggressive opener.
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#16 User is offline   mikl_plkcc 

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Posted 2021-September-09, 16:09

There was a board which got passed out in my club game in 3 out of 5 tables. The HCP distribution was 10-11-9-10 in bidding order with W being the dealer, with both the 1st and 2nd seat 4333, 3rd seat having a 5-card diamond suit and the pass out hand 4441 with singleton in diamond.

Two NS pairs played 1NT and 2NT, taking 6 and 8 tricks respectively.
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#17 User is offline   PeterAlan 

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Posted 2021-September-09, 19:25

View Postnige1, on 2021-September-05, 05:26, said:

Thomas Andrews also constructed a deal where all 4 players can make 3N, as declarer :)

This deal was originally found (I believe constructed) by John Beasley, and published in The Games and Puzzles Journal in 1988. Thomas Andrews re-discovered it when investigating rotationally-symmetric deals using a computer.

(Details from Peter Winkler's fascinating Bridge at the Enigma Club.)
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#18 User is offline   morecharac 

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Posted 2021-September-10, 23:37

View Postmikl_plkcc, on 2021-September-03, 11:59, said:

As title. Among real world bridge competitions, how likely is a deal going to be passed out?

In several years of directing twice a week at the club level, I saw exactly one hand passed out at every table.
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#19 User is online   pescetom 

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Posted 2021-September-11, 02:36

If you want to only consider hands passed out at every table then the number of tables becomes a key factor. I don't remember a hand passed out at all of 12 or more tables, but at 7 or less it is quite frequent in our club.

At a tournament I played recently a hand was passed out at 9 of 12 tables IIRC. On reflection I regretted passing, but picked up a good score for doing so. Bridge is like that sometimes.
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