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Your Lead vs 1N

#1 User is offline   jgillispie 

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Posted 2018-April-15, 19:16

http://tinyurl.com/y8n78p9j

Your lead at T1 is?
(No comment)
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#2 User is offline   steve2005 

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Posted 2018-April-15, 21:14

A club is the obvious lead.
On a good day hearts might work.
A diamond might work, but more likely is a typical Gib horrible lead.
Sarcasm is a state of mind
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#3 User is offline   ahydra 

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Posted 2018-April-15, 21:47



Ugh. Am I allowed to fake a heart attack?

Failing that, I guess I'd lead a club as it's the least of evils. (So I guess that would be a club attack.)

ahydra
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#4 User is offline   Phil 

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Posted 2018-April-15, 22:04

Annoying, but GIB probably led the Q.
Hi y'all!

Winner - BBO Challenge bracket #6 - February, 2017.
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#5 User is offline   pes_6 

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Posted 2018-April-16, 01:49

7
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#6 User is offline   nekthen 

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Posted 2018-April-16, 03:06

I go for hearts declarer can easily be qxxx
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#7 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2018-April-16, 03:56

View PostPhil, on 2018-April-15, 22:04, said:

Annoying, but GIB probably led the Q.


Dummy's second suit is often a good choice, but fortunately you are allowed to look at your hand as well as the auction :) and a spade is much too active.

I probably lead a club (particularly at match points), but only as a "least bad" response.
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#8 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2018-April-16, 04:57

I wouldnít lead a club; itís not unusual for declarers clubs to be longer/better than hearts here. Iíd go with a heart, hoping to find partner with Hxx or the like.

Spade queen could work, but given that my partners overcall 1S aggressively at NV partner probably doesnít have five of them (or a very strong four).
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
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#9 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2018-April-16, 05:54

Hi,

I would go with a club, I would need a better heart suit, lets add the jack, instead of the 4,
than heart is clear cut.

With kind regards
Marlowe
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
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#10 User is offline   subbaroow 

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Posted 2018-April-16, 11:02

View Postahydra, on 2018-April-15, 21:47, said:



Ugh. Am I allowed to fake a heart attack?

Failing that, I guess I'd lead a club as it's the least of evils. (So I guess that would be a club attack.)

ahydra

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#11 User is offline   subbaroow 

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Posted 2018-April-16, 11:14

h-5
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#12 User is offline   LJMadsen 

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Posted 2018-April-16, 12:28

Sp Q. Dummy has 4 spades. Declarer and partner have 7 together. Partner probably at least 4.
Club from Kxx is likely to help declarer with the unbid suit.
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#13 User is offline   pigpenz 

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Posted 2018-April-16, 18:31

ran it through Lead Captain
9-23.50%
J-23.21%
7-22.77%
Q-20.77%

cooked up 6,000 hands
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#14 User is offline   ahydra 

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Posted 2018-April-16, 19:21

View Postpigpenz, on 2018-April-16, 18:31, said:

ran it through Lead Captain
9-23.50%
J-23.21%
7-22.77%
Q-20.77%

cooked up 6,000 hands


And what about a heart or club?

ahydra
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#15 User is offline   tritonium 

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Posted 2018-April-16, 23:48

I might lead a diamond, dummy's first bid suit.
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#16 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2018-April-17, 05:54

I would lead a heart, if I lead a club, declarer will have 4 hearts and 5 or 6 clubs, diamond looks a bad holding to lead from, otherwise I very often would lead one.
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#17 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2018-April-17, 07:48

View Posttritonium, on 2018-April-16, 23:48, said:

I might lead a diamond, dummy's first bid suit.


This might be influenced by your opponents' methods. Would they bid Pass, 1; 1, 1NT with a balanced hand containing four spades? In which case the auction Pass, 1; 1, 1 will presumably suggest a five-card suit and leading a diamond is less attractive.

On the other hand, if Pass, 1; 1, 1 is likely to be a weak NT type hand with 4-4 in spades and diamonds then a diamond lead becomes a better proposition.

But J97 is a pretty unattractive holding to lead away from.


View Postpigpenz, on 2018-April-16, 18:31, said:

ran it through Lead Captain
9-23.50%
J-23.21%
7-22.77%
Q-20.77%

cooked up 6,000 hands


What assumptions did you make? In particular did you assume a five-card or four-card diamond suit in dummy?
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#18 User is offline   msjennifer 

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Posted 2018-April-17, 10:24

Heart 7 or 5 as per partnership understanding.
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#19 User is offline   pigpenz 

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Posted 2018-April-17, 18:28

View PostTramticket, on 2018-April-17, 07:48, said:

This might be influenced by your opponents' methods. Would they bid Pass, 1; 1, 1NT with a balanced hand containing four spades? In which case the auction Pass, 1; 1, 1 will presumably suggest a five-card suit and leading a diamond is less attractive.

On the other hand, if Pass, 1; 1, 1 is likely to be a weak NT type hand with 4-4 in spades and diamonds then a diamond lead becomes a better proposition.

But J97 is a pretty unattractive holding to lead away from.




What assumptions did you make? In particular did you assume a five-card or four-card diamond suit in dummy?

I set up constraints for what I thought were indicated by the auction, which I cant remember for sure what they were

but send me your constraints for what you think dummy and declarer should be and I would be glad to run it for you.

in 0-13 per suit & hcp range for each hand
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#20 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2018-April-18, 04:56

The most likely shapes are 3433 for declarer and 4243 for opener if you assume partner has a decent hand (which you need in order to set).

The reason is that partner would overcall 1 with five and a decent hand. So that marks partner with four spades and declarer three. Since declarer has a pretty bad hand (since partner has a good hand) he could have passed 1 with three and didnít. With any doubleton heíd be likely to pass, so 3433 is a favorite. If partner has six clubs he would surely bid, even with 4135/4225 he might bid as a NV passed hand. So itís likely partner has only four clubs, which gives opener three. Opener could be 4153 but then partner has 4324 which would often be a takeout double as a passed hand.

So if we know the shapes, what to lead? It seems like we should lead one of our seven card fits and thatís either heart or club. It will depend on the honor layout in these suits though.
Adam W. Meyerson
a.k.a. Appeal Without Merit
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