BBO Discussion Forums: Combining chances - BBO Discussion Forums

Jump to content

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

Combining chances A play problem

#1 User is offline   lamford 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 6,417
  • Joined: 2007-October-15

Posted 2018-March-26, 03:10


West leads the king of clubs against your normal game and East plays the seven, ostensibly showing an even number. Over to you.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
0

#2 User is offline   gszes 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 3,653
  • Joined: 2011-February-12

Posted 2018-March-26, 10:16

I prefer to take the heart finesse for 4 tricks (if I need them) rather than relying only on a 33 split. With this thought I will win trick 1 and try a low spade toward the T. This play makes it possible to return to the spade A the second round (unless a 40 split is revealed) of the suit and ALWAYS know if 4 heart tricks are needed or not (and if a 33 split is needed or not so we can avoid a finesse when it is not necessary).
0

#3 User is offline   Stephen Tu 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 4,070
  • Joined: 2003-May-14

Posted 2018-March-26, 11:05

I'm just playing ace and a spade, playing for trumps to behave, and falling back on 3-3 hearts. That's 84% or so and hard to beat IMO. I looked at other lines looking for more chances in hearts but they seemed worse. e.g. finesse spades first round, or cash one round of spades and work on hearts if an honor didn't fall.

I think you'll find that if spades don't behave, play for 3-3 spades is better than finesse hearts, because on large chunk of working H finesse the long spade going to ruff in before the heart trick set up to cash their diamond. And finding east with say both KJX and Jxxx(x), greater length in both suits is less likely.
1

#4 User is offline   lamford 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 6,417
  • Joined: 2007-October-15

Posted 2018-March-26, 11:29

View PostStephen Tu, on 2018-March-26, 11:05, said:

I'm just playing ace and a spade, playing for trumps to behave, and falling back on 3-3 hearts. That's 84% or so and hard to beat IMO. I looked at other lines looking for more chances in hearts but they seemed worse. e.g. finesse spades first round, or cash one round of spades and work on hearts if an honor didn't fall.

I think you'll find that if spades don't behave, play for 3-3 spades is better than finesse hearts, because on large chunk of working H finesse the long spade going to ruff in before the heart trick set up to cash their diamond. And finding east with say both KJX and Jxxx(x), greater length in both suits is less likely.

I think in isolation ace and another is slightly better (78% compared with 76.5%). However, if RHO shows out on the second round, he will get a chance to signal a diamond, and if West has KJx he will find the diamond switch. I think running the queen or nine makes it harder for the defence. I think both lines allow you to play for 3-3 hearts and you will have no reason to take a heart finesse in practice.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
0

#5 User is offline   nige1 

  • 5-level belongs to me
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 9,128
  • Joined: 2004-August-30
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Glasgow Scotland
  • Interests:Poems Computers

Posted 2018-March-26, 17:04

Quote


West leads the king of clubs against your normal game and East plays the seven, ostensibly showing an even number. Over to you.

I like Stephen Tu's line. Win A. Cash A.
- If both defenders follow, then lead another , hoping that s behave or s break 3-3.
- If a defender shows out on A, then cash AK.
- If RHO showed out on A, then you need RHO to hold J singleton or doubleton.
- If LHO showed out on A, then you need LHO to hold J singleton or doubleton or to be 3-3.
0

#6 User is offline   Trick13 

  • PipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 177
  • Joined: 2011-April-28
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:New Zealand

Posted 2018-March-28, 15:53

View Postlamford, on 2018-March-26, 11:29, said:

I think in isolation ace and another is slightly better (78% compared with 76.5%). However, if RHO shows out on the second round, he will get a chance to signal a diamond, and if West has KJx he will find the diamond switch. I think running the queen or nine makes it harder for the defence. I think both lines allow you to play for 3-3 hearts and you will have no reason to take a heart finesse in practice.


To my surprise, in isolation, low to the 9 is even better (81.35%). It picks up both 4-0 breaks (4.78% each) at the cost of J-Kxx (6.22%)
1

#7 User is offline   nige1 

  • 5-level belongs to me
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 9,128
  • Joined: 2004-August-30
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Glasgow Scotland
  • Interests:Poems Computers

Posted 2018-March-28, 16:39

View PostTrick13, on 2018-March-28, 15:53, said:

To my surprise, in isolation, low to the 9 is even better (81.35%). It picks up both 4-0 breaks (4.78% each) at the cost of J-Kxx (6.22%)
Suppose East follows and 9 loses to J. If West follows low to the next , declarer might go wrong.
0

#8 User is offline   PhantomSac 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,488
  • Joined: 2006-March-23
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2018-March-28, 17:18

View Postnige1, on 2018-March-28, 16:39, said:

Suppose East follows and 9 loses to J. If West follows low to the next , declarer might go wrong.


You will play low to the ace and lose to KJx on your left, just like if you had played ace then low. Trick is correct that you lose to 1 holding to gain to two when comparing low to the 9 vs ace then low if looking at the suit in a vacuum (obv not really relevant on this hand).
The artist formerly known as jlall
0

#9 User is offline   Trick13 

  • PipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 177
  • Joined: 2011-April-28
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:New Zealand

Posted 2018-March-28, 18:00

View PostPhantomSac, on 2018-March-28, 17:18, said:

You will play low to the ace and lose to KJx on your left, just like if you had played ace then low. Trick is correct that you lose to 1 holding to gain to two when comparing low to the 9 vs ace then low if looking at the suit in a vacuum (obv not really relevant on this hand).

Except that East played that low spade with such nonchalance. When I lead towards the A later, I ask myself did he/could he/would he duck from Kx? Nige1 is right. I could go wrong.
0

#10 User is offline   nige1 

  • 5-level belongs to me
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 9,128
  • Joined: 2004-August-30
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Glasgow Scotland
  • Interests:Poems Computers

Posted 2018-March-28, 18:40

View PostTrick13, on 2018-March-28, 15:53, said:

To my surprise, in isolation, low to the 9 is even better (81.35%). It picks up both 4-0 breaks (4.78% each) at the cost of J-Kxx (6.22%)

View PostPhantomSac, on 2018-March-28, 17:18, said:

Trick is correct that you lose to 1 holding to gain to two when comparing low to the 9 vs ace then low if looking at the suit in a vacuum (obv not really relevant on this hand).

Should have gone to Specsavers Bridge CC Analyser
0

#11 User is offline   gszes 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 3,653
  • Joined: 2011-February-12

Posted 2018-April-01, 05:59

View PostTrick13, on 2018-March-28, 15:53, said:

To my surprise, in isolation, low to the 9 is even better (81.35%). It picks up both 4-0 breaks (4.78% each) at the cost of J-Kxx (6.22%)

How do you get to the dummy to lead low toward the 9?
3

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

1 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users