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Makeable, or just double dummy?

#1 User is online   smerriman 

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Posted 2018-March-10, 14:24



GIB leads the spade King.

I went down in this contract, while double-dummy analysis shows it's makeable. What line would you take?

If you duck the first trick, GIB switches to the 9 of hearts, East playing low.
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#2 User is offline   Dinarius 

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Posted 2018-March-10, 16:53

Assuming you are losing trump Q and a Spade and assuming a normal 4/3 split in ♠️ and ♣️;

You make six tricks in high cards, one ♣️ ruff, one ♠️ ruff and two long trumps.

Right?

But, this assumes normal distributions in three suits, I think.

I donít think the contact can be may come what may. Your ♠️A could be ruffed, for example, as could either of your ♣️ honours, when setting up the cross ruff.

So, I assume GIB is saying itís a make for reasons of reasonable distribution.

D.
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#3 User is offline   Dinarius 

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Posted 2018-March-10, 17:01

Ps.

You say that if you duck the ♠️ lead, West switches to ❤️9, on which East plays low: I presume East plays low under your 10?

D.
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#4 User is online   smerriman 

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Posted 2018-March-10, 17:52

View PostDinarius, on 2018-March-10, 16:53, said:

Assuming you are losing trump Q and a Spade and assuming a normal 4/3 split in ♠️ and ♣️;

A 4-3 spade split is (virtually) impossible given the bidding. Try again,

View PostDinarius, on 2018-March-10, 17:01, said:

You say that if you duck the ♠️ lead, West switches to ❤️9, on which East plays low: I presume East plays low under your 10?

Right.
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#5 User is online   johnu 

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Posted 2018-March-10, 18:34

The thing about double dummy is that the best line is frequently something that isn't the best single dummy line. That's not to say that both are the same or that I know the best single dummy line :(

At the table, I would win A, cash AK throwing a diamond, and give up a spade with the goal of trying to ruff the 2 spade losers with J and 10, hoping not to set up a club overruff or uppercut along the way.
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#6 User is offline   0deary 

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Posted 2018-March-11, 02:54

Although we are a couple of top tricks short to start with, I think we could easily manage this by a black partial cross ruff, but if E has Q987 trump, well I think Iíd be heartbroken if thatís the layout you faced...
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#7 User is offline   Left2Right 

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Posted 2018-March-11, 10:20

Steve: See http://tinyurl.com/yatudd9f
Try this version of the hand in DeepFinesse.

You'll notice that contrary to a previous post, a 4-3 trump break is entirely plausible and consistent with the auction as are many others, of course.

Also notice in the linked hand, that no matter what you do, they can set you on any red card opening lead.

Bottom line: I wouldn't feel too bad about the double dummy outcome, just review such hands in Deep Finesse and judge whether the necessary line reminds us of something we learn out of the book, like a cross-ruff; or on something we usually avoid, like finessing a spot card on the first play of a suit.

Seconding some of the previous comments, as declarer, the puny rank of South's spot cards (trumps) would be enough to make me consider a modified cross-ruff at the outset.
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#8 User is online   smerriman 

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Posted 2018-March-11, 13:20

Left2Right - I'm afraid you have me completely confused :/

Firstly, the opponents have 5 trumps between them, so I'm not sure what you mean by a 4-3 trump break.

If you're referring to my earlier post where I said a 4-3 spade break isn't possible, that's because West bid 1, and GIB doesn't overcall with 4 spades.

Regarding the rest of your post, I'm not asking if the hand can be made 100% of the time. I'm asking what you believe the best line is, single dummy. I analysed the hand double dummy, figured out what line I would have needed to take, and thought that it looked quite reasonable and that experts may have come up with it. Thus asking what people thought the best line was, to see if anyone would.
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#9 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2018-March-11, 15:07


On this benign lie of the cards, GiB says that only a lead allows 4 to make.

On K lead, with breaking 4-1, declarer can still get home, provided LHO switches to his and RHO covers.
Declarer wins A, A, A, AK chucking a , ruff a , ruff a with J, (over)ruff a and ruff the 4th .
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#10 User is online   johnu 

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Posted 2018-March-11, 17:47

View Postnige1, on 2018-March-11, 15:07, said:

On K lead, with breaking 4-1, declarer can still get home, provided LHO switches to his and RHO covers.


In the 1st post, OP says that RHO does not cover the heart switch. I assume that the double dummy analysis was done after that trick.
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#11 User is online   johnu 

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Posted 2018-March-11, 17:49

View PostLeft2Right, on 2018-March-11, 10:20, said:



That looks like an awful lot of points in the West hand for a passed hand overcall.
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#12 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2018-March-11, 18:09

View Postjohnu, on 2018-March-11, 17:47, said:

In the 1st post, OP says that RHO does not cover the heart switch. I assume that the double dummy analysis was done after that trick.
Agree. JohnU is right that SMerryman probably assumed break 3-2. If RHO has Q872, however, and LHO switches to 9 then it seems that declarer can't make, double-dummy, unless RHO covers..
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#13 User is online   smerriman 

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Posted 2018-March-11, 18:34

nige1's first hand is close to the actual layout - but note that in his hand, winning the first spade and playing a club has you going down straight away.

If I'm correct the main line suggested so far relies on West having the heart queen (less than 50% based on vacant spaces). Can someone come up with the best line assuming East has the heart queen? (I could well be wrong, but suspect it might be better.)
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#14 User is offline   miamijd 

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Posted 2018-March-12, 13:10

Once GIB West leads the 9h at trick 2, you can be quite sure that GIB East has the Qh. GIB will not underlead a trump Queen this early. Almost 100%.

If East has Q87x, you can't make it, so you have to assume East has Qxx. In that case, GIB's line is pretty obvious, and the only one with a chance to make. You have 9 top tricks, and the tenth needs to be a ruff. Unfortunately, East has a doubleton spade (West overcalled), so you can't win an extra trick by ruffing a spade. Instead, you need to turn the spade ruff into a diamond ruff by simply winning the As, leading spades, and pitching diamonds. This will work just fine so long as East has at least 4 diamonds (if West is 5242, East can beat you by pitching diamonds on West's spades).

West can lead another trump the first time he gets in with a spade, but he can't lead a third trump when you lead your fourth spade (he doesn't have any more trump), and he has no way to put East in. So the Th eventually ruffs a diamond for your tenth trick.

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#15 User is online   smerriman 

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Posted 2018-March-12, 13:32

Excellent, now we're on the right track :)

East does have enough diamonds, but unfortunately also has 3 clubs. After you lead the third spade, East throws a club, then West returns another spade. You again can't ruff, so throw another diamond, East throwing another club.

Now when West switches to a trump, you can ruff a diamond, but are then stuck in dummy - not able to cash both clubs without East ruffing.

Can you improve that line?
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#16 User is offline   miamijd 

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Posted 2018-March-12, 14:15

View Postsmerriman, on 2018-March-12, 13:32, said:

Excellent, now we're on the right track :)

East does have enough diamonds, but unfortunately also has 3 clubs. After you lead the third spade, East throws a club, then West returns another spade. You again can't ruff, so throw another diamond, East throwing another club.

Now when West switches to a trump, you can ruff a diamond, but are then stuck in dummy - not able to cash both clubs without East ruffing.

Can you improve that line?


Cashing the AK clubs before embarking on your spade plays avoids this problem, no?

Cheers,
Mike
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#17 User is online   smerriman 

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Posted 2018-March-12, 18:41

Yep. Throwing a diamond on the club King will then allow your line to work, with a double loser-on-loser play.

Throwing a spade on the club King also works (and was the line I had figured out after analysis) - with the added twist that you now need to duck a diamond before making a single loser-on-loser play.

Overall, I don't know whether this line is better than winning the spade Ace immediately and playing as others stated - but I thought that the club timing along with the loser-on-loser play (with a diamond duck) was pretty cool - and your double loser-on-loser play equally cool :)


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#18 User is offline   kuhchung 

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Posted 2018-March-13, 11:24

Cool hand, thanks for sharing!

On the subject of overcalls, I have seen GIB make a lot of 4 card overcalls, so I wouldn't be so certain about that assumption :P
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