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Opening bid Factors

#21 User is offline   0deary 

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Posted 2018-March-07, 00:52

1S
5 spades to KQ with 12 Milton Work points- ample to open under Acol (>11 points and >Rule 19), moreover
N deserves to know that S owns the 12 points. If S passes we could easily miss a decent contract
7 losers- fine to open
1S controls the first level of bidding for N/S- pre-empting value
S hand is a good basis for S or NT or even H contract
You get the spade lead if needs be
The rest of the field are going to open 1S anyway

Pass
Its a game of winning tricks: S only has one sure (slow) trick (when 1S contracting for 7 tricks- quite a shortfall)
The intermediates are very poor- not even KQ9xx in your showcase suit
Other honours are unsupported
Substandard points to open under a 13+ SAYC
Structurally a defensive and not an offensive hand, moreover
2nd position under (what could easily be) a heavy West
EW are not Vul so quite likely West will intervene
and in consequence N might well have to strain to bid now (in 4th)
NS are Vulnerable so more expensive to slip

Pencilling in average points and suits I imagine N hands will cluster to 11 points with shape 3,3,4,3, so the value bid is closer to 3S bid than 2S, something like:

xxx, Axx, KQxx, Qxx

I’ll pencil in a losing 1 1/2S, 1/2H, 1D and 1 1/2C, so it looks like a losing 3imps even on such an average hand :)

What am I missing?

Thank you

0deary
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#22 User is offline   vmsmith 

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Posted 2018-March-08, 08:29

pass and pray that those who open 1S never sober up
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#23 User is offline   0deary 

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Posted 2018-March-09, 03:53

If you have reservations opening the 1S hand then maybe

-change your CC from “1S means 12+” to “1S means 12+ with caveats” and describe what aspects you won’t open, (ie don’t automatically open each an every 12), or
-tweak your 2S response from 6-9 to e.g. 7-10, and/or
-treat first bid after passing as forcing for one round- e.g. P-P-P-1D-P-1S= forcing for one round

The vast majority would open though, and enormous thanks to Tramticket’s gently exploring elsewhere, and based on 32 posters as at 9.3.2018:-

(NB "5 card majors/SNT" compare "your favourite system")

Board number Hand HCP Description Percentage open

0 KQ864,KJ2,65,K63 12 the hand that started my interest 88.2%
1 86543,KJ2,KQ,K63 12 move S honours to D 51.5%
2 KQ86,KJ2,654,K63 12 move one spade card to diamonds 50.0%
4 KQ864,K62,65,K63 11 change JH to a 6 42.4%
3 KJ864,KJ2,65,K63 11 change QS to JS 30.3%
6 KJT64,KT9,65,KT9 10 drop the JH but build up the 10s a bit 27.3 %
5 KJ864,K62,65,K63 10 and remove the 10s now 18.2%

(spreadsheet with two sheets: raw data and summary: if you want a copy send me your email address)

Good luck dear bridge players!
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#24 User is offline   NickRW 

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Posted 2018-March-09, 07:19

View Post0deary, on 2018-March-09, 03:53, said:

If you have reservations opening the 1S hand then maybe

-change your CC from “1S means 12+” to “1S means 12+ with caveats” and describe what aspects you won’t open, (ie don’t automatically open each an every 12),...




Personally, to those people who bother to look at my CC (most of whom are at least as experienced as I am), I strongly object to having to explain why, for example

AT9xx
ATxx
xx
xx

is (usually, quite a lot) better than

Qxxxx
Qxxx
Qx
Qx


CCs are about brief system explanations. Not a beginners book on hand evaluation.

Nick
"Pass is your friend" - my brother in law - who likes to bid a lot.
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