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How many tricks ? ruling gave the contract now assess the tricks

#1 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2018-February-16, 18:16



The contract is bizarrely 2x by S after a MI ruling against NS, how many tricks do you think it should be ruled to make (EW actually played 2 at the table).
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#2 User is offline   blackshoe 

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Posted 2018-February-16, 19:21

How did the bidding go?
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#3 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2018-February-17, 04:51

View Postblackshoe, on 2018-February-16, 19:21, said:

How did the bidding go?

N opened 1N-P-P-X-P-P-2(not alerted, intended as transfer, agreed as their system)-P-P-2.

It was ruled that if 2 had correctly been alerted as a transfer, the auction would have gone X-P-P-P. I didn't want to get into whether S was allowed to pass 2x (I don't think he is, for me and I suspect for the pair at the table the failure to complete the transfer only shows 2 spades, so xx, AKx, AQxxx, xxx is plausible and could conceivably take only 3 tricks in hearts while making 8 in diamonds) and concentrate on the number of tricks which is why I didn't include it.
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#4 User is offline   ahydra 

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Posted 2018-February-17, 06:07

It's too late at night for a full analysis but I would guess -2, making 3H 1D 2C. West has a natural club lead and declarer will want to play trumps from hand, so will have to find a way there, but the defense can just persist with clubs (cashing SAK when required).

ahydra
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#5 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2018-February-17, 08:50

View Postahydra, on 2018-February-17, 06:07, said:

It's too late at night for a full analysis but I would guess -2, making 3H 1D 2C. West has a natural club lead and declarer will want to play trumps from hand, so will have to find a way there, but the defense can just persist with clubs (cashing SAK when required).

ahydra


Declarer can always get out for -1 seeing all the cards, as the defence will be endplayed eventually, but the sort of question is which heart does declarer play if declarer plays AKx and W returns a small one ? or if it comes down to just diamonds left, does declarer play small to the 10 which wins if the J is one side or small to the K which wins if it's the other (given that the A is known to be with the doubler).
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#6 User is offline   blackshoe 

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Posted 2018-February-17, 14:22

If not passing 2X is a possibility in their methods, what might happen after South doesn't pass (3, 3X?) should be included in a weighted score. I think a poll is needed here.
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#7 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2018-February-17, 15:25

View Postblackshoe, on 2018-February-17, 14:22, said:

If not passing 2X is a possibility in their methods, what might happen after South doesn't pass (3, 3X?) should be included in a weighted score. I think a poll is needed here.


Which is exactly why I didn't want to include the auction, I was purely interested in the assessment of how many tricks 2X should be awarded.
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#8 User is offline   BudH 

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Posted 2018-February-17, 15:43

View PostCyberyeti, on 2018-February-16, 18:16, said:



The contract is bizarrely 2x by S after a MI ruling against NS, how many tricks do you think it should be ruled to make (EW actually played 2 at the table).


I think six tricks is most likely, and the chance of only five tricks is low enough not to use a weighted average.
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#9 User is offline   blackshoe 

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Posted 2018-February-17, 19:46

View PostBudH, on 2018-February-17, 15:43, said:

I think six tricks is most likely, and the chance of only five tricks is low enough not to use a weighted average.

Works for me.
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I have come to realise it is futile to expect or hope a regular club game will be run in accordance with the laws. -- Jillybean
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#10 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2018-February-18, 04:23

View PostBudH, on 2018-February-17, 15:43, said:

I think six tricks is most likely, and the chance of only five tricks is low enough not to use a weighted average.


This was what I felt, I objected somewhat to the director's award of 7.
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