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Judgment check - sit or go?

Poll: Judgment check - sit or go? (34 member(s) have cast votes)

What's your call?

  1. Pass (29 votes [85.29%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 85.29%

  2. 5C (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  3. 5D (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  4. 5H (0 votes [0.00%])

    Percentage of vote: 0.00%

  5. 4NT (5 votes [14.71%] - View)

    Percentage of vote: 14.71%

Vote Guests cannot vote

#1 User is offline   perko90 

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Posted 2018-February-16, 12:35

Match Points, N Deals, NV vs NV, you're South with:

x
QJx
Jxxx
AQT9x

Auction goes:
P-P-1C-1S
X-4S-P-P
X-P-?
0

#2 User is offline   P_Marlowe 

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Posted 2018-February-16, 12:50

View Postperko90, on 2018-February-16, 12:35, said:

Match Points, N Deals, NV vs NV, you're South with:

x
QJx
Jxxx
AQT9x

Auction goes:
P-P-1C-1S
X-4S-P-P
X-P-?

Pass?
With kind regards
Uwe Gebhardt (P_Marlowe)
0

#3 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2018-February-16, 12:50

4s is almost always an underpowered stab in the dark designed primarily to preempt the opps vs actually making 4s. Partner has offered a sentiment that 4s is not making. It is not just that p chose x but if p was looking at something like xxx in spades they would KNOW we were short and instead of x they would have chosen 4n as takeout (their passed hand status makes 4n as a slam search impossible). Partner might be wrong with the x but they have no strong reason to depend on us for more than 1 trick. Poor partner should not silenced when they hold something like QJT Axx Axxx xxx (unless you commonly open such hands in which case I will probably run/flee/scurry to 5c).
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#4 User is offline   perko90 

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Posted 2018-February-16, 13:05

FYI ... Our opening style in 1st or 2nd is Rule of 20 w/ 2 Quick Tricks.
I loosen it up a bit only at these colors specifically (NV v NV), but ptr (North) maintains it at all colors.
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#5 User is online   Tramticket 

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Posted 2018-February-16, 13:37

I might have opened 3.

Your partner is a passed hand and has then made a take-out (negative) double of the 1 overcall. He is not showing spades. He still has the same hand when he makes the second double, but is probably showing some extra values (a maximum pass). The trouble is that we are looking at one defensive trick - maybe two at a stretch. How many defensive tricks do we expect our passed-hand partner to provide? I'm running - 4NT looks the best way of finding our fit.
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#6 User is offline   JanisW 

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Posted 2018-February-16, 14:48

If I opened this nice collection of rubbish (1QT, 11count, no Spades, no sensible rebid after most responses), I would have to run.
What basically happened is, I told P a story about my hand, but unfortunately I lied and now have to live with the consequences.
If I were N I would be very dissapointed not to beat 4S looking at 2 tricks opposite supposedly opening values.
Agree with 4NT.

regards
JW
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#7 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2018-February-16, 14:49

Partner's bid in my view shows a hand too good to pass, not great playing strength. I let them play 4S doubled.
This post sponsored by: All County Building Supply & Maintenance, Felo, NY.
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#8 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2018-February-16, 16:25

The choice is between pass and 4 NT. Other options are there for window dressing. I choose pass but I predict if pass was the winning call on this deal it would not make its way to forums.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
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"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





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#9 User is offline   0deary 

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Posted 2018-February-17, 03:43

4NT

Nice problem! Two thoughts:

If I open a hand Iím offering partner 3 1/2 defensive tricks and although I expect a bit of latitude in 3rd position Iíd still imply some defence. I have one or even none at all

And the hand itself is less important now. The issue as I see it is our partnership. My partner has offered a take out with some Hearts and now with the second double a scattering of points, partner is well aware that my bid can be a third position effort. Can I see us beating 4S? Gifting 4S doubled to them will just upset partner; I canít do that: 4NT it has to be!
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#10 User is offline   ahydra 

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Posted 2018-February-17, 05:58

You're offering how many defensive tricks? 3.5?? So you don't open ATxxx Axx Kxx x? I think 2 tricks is closer to reality.

Here we shouldn't really have opened (maybe Tramticket's 3C is an option if you're into that sort of masochistic stuff :)), but I still pass. We have CA and HQJ for something approaching two defensive tricks, plus the hand sounds like a misfit with potential bad breaks and 5m could get costly.

ahydra
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#11 User is offline   0deary 

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Posted 2018-February-17, 07:17

Before considering aX I put in 3 1/2 defensive tricks for opener and then add mine: that way I have secure starting place. I avoid doubling for just -1.

As regards souths defensive tricks I first put in 1 1/2 clubs and 1 heart, total 2 1/2 defensive tricks. And then reflect

Based on what I’ve heard I’m going to pencil in West with a black-ish hand. And east got excited, so I’m pencilling in spades and reds with club shortage. So I can easily see my club tricks down to 1 or none. And the hearts could easily just be too slow for a trick. Declarer will establish a side suit and rid the losers there. So as I say I’m only setting aside 1 or no defensive tricks as south. Hence after partner passed originally I can easily see 4S doubled tick up one

As regards the earlier bids well yes of course I’d not open. And even more importantly North absolutely must not make the second double. But that’s not what the question was

And yes too, I do fear for a -800 but hope a -300/500 beats a sure -690 for a few match points at least

This post has been edited by 0deary: 2018-February-17, 07:22

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#12 User is offline   Joe_Old 

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Posted 2018-February-17, 08:29

Assuming that partner has seen South open rubbish in third seat many times before, the second double should be business. The first double has to show values to compete. The colors aren't right to expect a big profit from sacrificing at the five level, even if it is matchpoints. And, if South did have a hand that should compete to the five level, South already had an opportunity to do so and declined.

I'm expecting North to have 2+ red suit quick tricks and an obvious spade lead. Pass.
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#13 User is offline   GrahamJson 

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Posted 2018-February-17, 09:24

Is it too late to ask for an undo?
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#14 User is offline   msjennifer 

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Posted 2018-February-17, 09:29

PASS.No problem! Hardly needs any explanation.
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#15 User is offline   nekthen 

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Posted 2018-February-17, 09:29

Abstain from the poll.
1 is a truly awful effort. My partner is entitled to expect 2 defensive tricks. Yes we can open weak in 3rd seat but not 1 swap the black suits and even my gran opens 1.

I am not opening 3 without 6 of them.

If I have it in my aresnal, I would consider opening 2N
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#16 User is offline   GrahamJson 

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Posted 2018-February-17, 09:48

It seems likely that few will open your hand at other tables, in which case it seems likely that the bidding will proceed 1S - 4S, or maybe just 3S. After all, players will often stretch their raises over a TOX. If most of the field are in 3S then getting -300 in 5C or 5D is a bottom, even if 4S is on. And if 5e field is in 4S, bid on strength rather than preemptively, I would expect to lose -500 if I were to bid on. On that basis I would cross my fingers and pass, knowing that prospects ar3nt great.

Another factor is that it is bad for partnership confidence if you take out partnerís doubles because you were light for your previous bid. Partner will understand if you were trying to put pressure on, but it went wrong. He will be less pleased if you go for 300 or more and you could have picked up +100 by passing.
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#17 User is offline   maartenxq 

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Posted 2018-February-17, 11:08

After this contract has been made I shall explain p his dbl should be for penalties and should make generous allowances for my possible 3rd hand opening.
Also I shall tell him that I do not like David Byrd's irritation dbl convention.

If none of the above applies I will compliment him with his perfect judgement.

Maarten Baltussen
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#18 User is offline   eagles123 

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Posted 2018-February-17, 13:27

pulling this for me is a hell of a punt, maybe it'll make +1, but i think passing is by far the percentage action on these cards
"definitely that's what I like to play when I'm playing standard - I want to be able to bid diamonds because bidding good suits is important in bridge" - Meckstroth's opinion on weak 2 diamond
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#19 User is offline   JanisW 

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Posted 2018-February-17, 14:40

This is no light 3rd seat opening. This is no opener, whatsoever.
To open light in 3rd/4th we apply the rule of 15 which this hands fails to meet by 4! And I need to add 2Js and 2Qs to the count to even get there
Opps easily have an 11 card fit and P a real takeout and expects us to hold some Spades and/or Defence.
Maybe Partner should not have doubled 4 but that's what happened so we have to limit the damage.

The field should be somewhere in 3-4. After 1 by West an undisturbed East might settle for 3.
If 9 tricks are the limit for E-W we're in great shape rigth now.
If 10 tricks are possible we are allowed to go -3 and will still do better than 4X=. And we have a shot at a magic -2 to even beat those in 4= which is not found at another table, because other Souths did not open. If most of the field is in 3+1 we're screwed anyway, unless the cards are



where we hit the magic jackpot in 5X-1. And yes I know that there are layouts where 4 doesn't make and 5m goes down for a 4 digit number

If I had a transient lose of consciousness and opened 1, my P would never play me for what I have. So I would have to run after having regained my consciousness :)
But I also agree with the sentiment that, if this was close to something I could have, I would have to stand the double and hope for the best.

regards
JW
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#20 User is offline   Joe_Old 

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Posted 2018-February-17, 15:21

So switch the K and Ace and 5 makes and 4 goes down. Shift the K and 5 makes. It still looks like N took a hell of a chance, and it didn't work out.

It looks like the lesson here is that a practiced partnership knows 1) how bad a third seat opener can be when opener is just trying to suggest a lead and 2) that they are in agreement that third seat will run like a rodent when partner doubles.
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