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A Crucial Lead

#1 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2018-February-15, 16:14


IMPs converted into VPS.

Partner's doubles had different degrees of takeout here in this hand from the Commonwealth Teams. IMPs converted into VPS. Your lead.
[On checking it was game all.]
'When I write a Law,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.'
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#2 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2018-February-15, 17:23

View Postlamford, on 2018-February-15, 16:14, said:

IMPs converted into VPS.Partner's doubles had different degrees of takeout here in this hand from the Commonwealth Teams. IMPs converted into VPS. Your lead.


I rank
  • J You have , partner has the minors. Perhaps you can reduce the number of ruffs.
  • K Set up a trick in case we can cash it.
  • 8. Passive but might get a ruff or set up partner's s.
  • 2. Reluctant to lead from Q.

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#3 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2018-February-15, 18:09

View Postnige1, on 2018-February-15, 17:23, said:

I rank
  • J You have , partner has the minors. Perhaps you can reduce the number of ruffs.
  • K Set up a trick in case we can cash it.
  • 8. Passive but might get a ruff or set up partner's s.
  • 2. Reluctant to lead from Q.



Well, you can only lead one card.
I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones -- Albert Einstein
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#4 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2018-February-15, 18:49

View PostVampyr, on 2018-February-15, 18:09, said:

Well, you can only lead one card.

Usually there are votes for all 4 suits Sometimes, one is best in practice but another best in theory :(



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#5 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2018-February-15, 21:04

View Postnige1, on 2018-February-15, 18:49, said:

Usually there are votes for all 4 suits Sometimes, one is best in practice but another best in theory :(


Well, yes, but theory never won a match! What do you do at the table?
I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones -- Albert Einstein
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#6 User is offline   NickRW 

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Posted 2018-February-16, 06:07


"Pass is your friend" - my brother in law - who likes to bid a lot.
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#7 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2018-February-16, 06:22

At the table would lead a club, not sure what's technically correct.
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#8 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2018-February-16, 07:21

View PostVampyr, on 2018-February-15, 21:04, said:

Well, yes, but theory never won a match! What do you do at the table?

The theoretically best lead tends to win in the long term :)
I don't know what's technically best here but I would try J (the lead that I ranked 1st).
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#9 User is offline   bravejason 

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Posted 2018-February-16, 08:32

View Postnige1, on 2018-February-15, 17:23, said:

I rank
  • J You have , partner has the minors. Perhaps you can reduce the number of ruffs.
  • K Set up a trick in case we can cash it.
  • 8. Passive but might get a ruff or set up partner's s.
  • 2. Reluctant to lead from Q.



What makes you reluctant to lead a D from the Q?
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#10 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2018-February-16, 08:36

Based on partner's doubles, we seem to have our fair share of this deck. J seems like a reasonable attempt to minimise ruffs.

But K or 8 might be right.
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#11 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2018-February-16, 08:37

View Postbravejason, on 2018-February-16, 08:32, said:

What makes you reluctant to lead a D from the Q?


It might save declarer a guess or open up a frozen suit.
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#12 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2018-February-16, 12:32

club

If partners final x depended on finding me with a spade to lead we need to make better doubles. P depending on our side taking heart and/or diamond tricks (given the bidding) just seems plain wrong. A club lead into the great unknown gives away NOTHING that declarer could not get on their own. If the opps have a double fit the bidding just plain makes no sense. P rates to have some serious club length and/or power. A club might also manage to get our side a trump trick we might otherwise not be able to get.
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#13 User is offline   foobar 

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Posted 2018-February-16, 23:37

Chalk me up for a club. We are unlikely to get more than one heart trick on this auction (if any), and it's unlikely to go away.
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#14 User is offline   Vampyr 

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Posted 2018-February-17, 09:08

No one seems to lead a wooden heart like I did. You have to set up a heart trick before declarer knocks out partner’s ace in the minor that he can take a heart pitch on. The other minor is safe as long as partner switches to a heart. No one seems to want to lead that minor either.

But the answers might be different if this weren’t presented as a problem. Perhaps there is a bit of “well, the obvious heart can’t be right or I wouldn’t have been asked..”
I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones -- Albert Einstein
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#15 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2018-February-21, 16:16

View PostVampyr, on 2018-February-17, 09:08, said:

No one seems to lead a wooden heart like I did. You have to set up a heart trick before declarer knocks out partner’s ace in the minor that he can take a heart pitch on. The other minor is safe as long as partner switches to a heart. No one seems to want to lead that minor either.

But the answers might be different if this weren’t presented as a problem. Perhaps there is a bit of “well, the obvious heart can’t be right or I wouldn’t have been asked..”

The reason a heart lead (or diamond lead and heart switch) is right is that dummy has xxxx xx Jxxxx QJ and declarer has AQxxxx Axx x KTx, so you need to get at your heart trick before declarer sets up a club for a heart pitch from dummy. I think this is an unlikely layout and will stick with my trump lead and my -850.
'When I write a Law,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.'
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#16 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2018-February-21, 19:09

My question is what would you lead against 5s W/O the x? A lightner x asks for a specific (unusual) lead to give our partnership what may be its only chance to set a slam. A penalty x that requires a specific defense for a 1 trick set should be reserved for emergencies (like lightner). I think I can take 3 tricks vs 5s IF my p has certain distribution and HCP AND they happen to lead what they would normally lead w/o the x AND they opps are not more distributional than we expect is NOT a good X. W/O the x I would lead a top heart what about you? just a thought.
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#17 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2018-February-23, 07:09

View Postgszes, on 2018-February-21, 19:09, said:

My question is what would you lead against 5s W/O the x? A lightner x asks for a specific (unusual) lead to give our partnership what may be its only chance to set a slam. A penalty x that requires a specific defense for a 1 trick set should be reserved for emergencies (like lightner). I think I can take 3 tricks vs 5s IF my p has certain distribution and HCP AND they happen to lead what they would normally lead w/o the x AND they opps are not more distributional than we expect is NOT a good X. W/O the x I would lead a top heart what about you? just a thought.

Partner had doubled 4S and I had pulled because of my huge ODR (offence to defence ratio). That was right as 4S was cold. Now partner doubles 5S and I pretty much have to pass. He probably has 3 tricks and one of them might go away. I led a trump in case declarer needed three ruffs in dummy for 11 tricks and partner can win something and lead a second trump. My life and bridge partner Vampyr would have led a heart and scored +200 quite a bit better than my -850. Many consulted here including Dburn and Silverstone led a club, also -850. Some hands are too tough. My partner corrects that to "all hands are too tough as far as I am concerned."
'When I write a Law,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.'
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#18 User is offline   rhm 

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Posted 2018-February-23, 13:36

View Postlamford, on 2018-February-23, 07:09, said:

Partner had doubled 4S and I had pulled because of my huge ODR (offence to defence ratio). That was right as 4S was cold. Now partner doubles 5S and I pretty much have to pass. He probably has 3 tricks and one of them might go away. I led a trump in case declarer needed three ruffs in dummy for 11 tricks and partner can win something and lead a second trump. My life and bridge partner Vampyr would have led a heart and scored +200 quite a bit better than my -850. Many consulted here including Dburn and Silverstone led a club, also -850. Some hands are too tough. My partner corrects that to "all hands are too tough as far as I am concerned."

Would you mind showing us the complete deal?

Rainer Herrmann
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#19 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2018-February-23, 13:44

I don't understand leading a club at all. It's the suit where we are most likely to set up tricks for declarer, and where our tricks are least likely to go away.
Obviously we have a recall bias in favour of the assholes. -helene_t
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#20 User is online   Winstonm 

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Posted 2018-February-23, 15:51

View Postcherdano, on 2018-February-23, 13:44, said:

I don't understand leading a club at all. It's the suit where we are most likely to set up tricks for declarer, and where our tricks are least likely to go away.


My head is still spinning from the bidding - is this the new normal - a 2H vulnerable over-call with that hand? And it is a serious question, as I frankly admit to being out of touch with current bidding practices.
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