BBO Discussion Forums: Play 3NT at MPs - BBO Discussion Forums

Jump to content

Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

Play 3NT at MPs

#1 User is offline   ahydra 

  • AQT92 AQ --- QJ6532
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 2,585
  • Joined: 2009-September-09
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2018-February-14, 04:34

MPs, opps are pretty solid players.



2NT = 20-22. Opening lead (4th best): C3.
Spoiler


If you play a spade to dummy's Q at some point, it wins, West playing the 9 and East the 10 (rev. count).

ahydra
0

#2 User is offline   eagles123 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,616
  • Joined: 2011-June-08
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:UK Near London
  • Interests:Crystal Palace

Posted 2018-February-14, 08:38

im rubbish at MP but what about win in hand AK of diamonds if the Q doesn't fall switch to spades?
"definitely that's what I like to play when I'm playing standard - I want to be able to bid diamonds because bidding good suits is important in bridge" - Meckstroth's opinion on weak 2 diamond
1

#3 User is offline   gszes 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 3,334
  • Joined: 2011-February-12

Posted 2018-February-14, 09:25

looking at the two hands it seems 4s is a vastly superior contract to 3n and has reasonable play for making 6 if spades break 32 and even if spades break 41 ten tricks should still be easy. Those opps playing puppet stayman will find the 53 fit and play spades vs nt. Those opps that open 1s will find 4s. It seems that just being in 3n rates to be inferior. So our opps are not just those others in 3n but all of those in 4s as well. The questions seems to be what is the best way to go about making at least 5 and maybe 6. So I would: as soon as i figure out that spoiler format again anyway
Spoiler

0

#4 User is online   pescetom 

  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 730
  • Joined: 2014-February-18
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Italy

Posted 2018-February-14, 09:26

View Posteagles123, on 2018-February-14, 08:38, said:

what about win in hand AK of diamonds if the Q doesn't fall switch to spades?

Surely a better way to approach the diamonds would be to finesse against the Q in East?
Looks to me like 48% instead of 32% just playing off AK.
0

#5 User is offline   Tramticket 

  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 960
  • Joined: 2009-May-03
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Kent (Near London)

Posted 2018-February-14, 09:48

View Postpescetom, on 2018-February-14, 09:26, said:

Surely a better way to approach the diamonds would be to finesse against the Q in East?
Looks to me like 48% instead of 32% just playing off AK.


I think that playing AK might be right - for the reason suggested by gszes. We are in a poor contract and need to take an anti-room line to regain ground.

Edit: I win trick 1 in hand with the ace to preserve an entry.
0

#6 User is offline   Winstonm 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 13,165
  • Joined: 2005-January-08
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Tulsa, Oklahoma
  • Interests:Art, music

Posted 2018-February-14, 10:12

I think the key to this deal is to beat the 4S bidders. I can either play for everything onside and breaking to make 12 tricks or play for everything to be offside and try to beat a 10 trick 4S. As matchpoints tends to reward optimists, I say play it wide open for 12 tricks, meaning take both minor suit finesses and play for spades to be 3-2 or the stiff ace with LHO.
The clearest way to show what the rule of law means to us in everyday life is to recall what has happened when there is no rule of law.-Dwight Eisenhower
0

#7 User is offline   steve2005 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 2,620
  • Joined: 2010-April-22
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Hamilton, Canada
  • Interests:Bridge duh!

Posted 2018-February-14, 10:26

View Postpescetom, on 2018-February-14, 09:26, said:

Surely a better way to approach the diamonds would be to finesse against the Q in East?
Looks to me like 48% instead of 32% just playing off AK.

If the diamond finesse fails you could have your club entry killed before you can cash your high diamonds, so you may never get the long diamond tricks.
At MP it may be worth the risk though.


Sarcasm is a state of mind
0

#8 User is offline   MrAce 

  • VIP Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 6,952
  • Joined: 2009-November-14
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Houston, TX

Posted 2018-February-14, 18:03

View Postgszes, on 2018-February-14, 09:25, said:

looking at the two hands it seems 4s is a vastly superior contract to 3n and has reasonable play for making 6 if spades break 32 and even if spades break 41 ten tricks should still be easy. Those opps playing puppet stayman will find the 53 fit and play spades vs nt. Those opps that open 1s will find 4s. It seems that just being in 3n rates to be inferior. So our opps are not just those others in 3n but all of those in 4s as well. The questions seems to be what is the best way to go about making at least 5 and maybe 6. So I would: as soon as i figure out that spoiler format again anyway
Spoiler



I do not understand this at all
First of all before you bang down the K at least try to cash one honor, in case someone has stiff Q.
When this fails, instead of creating an entry to dummy by making your entire plan depending on Ax , play a small spade to dummy at least on the 2nd round of spades. Banging down the K and then J, which is basically playing for Ax as you mentioned, wins only when Ax with East because playing small also wins when W has Ax
Ax with E is only % 13.56 while the odds of W holding A is % 50. Granted that you also win when W has Ax brings you up to somewhere % 27, still nowhere close to % 50.
What am i missing about this banging down the K followed by J ?
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"

"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





0

#9 User is offline   Winstonm 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 13,165
  • Joined: 2005-January-08
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Tulsa, Oklahoma
  • Interests:Art, music

Posted 2018-February-15, 12:44

It occurred to me that if the spade ace is offside then opponents can always deny 5 diamond tricks by returning a club. Even if the spades are 3/2, 4 spades, 3 clubs, 3 diamonds (if the finesse is onside) and 1 heart would be the maximum available on the hand in NT if the diamond finesse is onside and the spade is offside. Therefore, the key issue I believe now is to test the spade entry immediately by winning the club ace and leading a low spade to the Q. If it wins, take the diamond finesse, playing for 12 tricks. If the spade loses to the ace offside, the doubleton queen of diamonds needs to drop even if a heart is returned because the target for our hand then is 11 tricks to beat the spade contracts that take the diamond finesse.
The clearest way to show what the rule of law means to us in everyday life is to recall what has happened when there is no rule of law.-Dwight Eisenhower
0

#10 User is online   nige1 

  • 5-level belongs to me
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 7,345
  • Joined: 2004-August-30
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Glasgow Scotland
  • Interests:Poems Computers

Posted 2018-February-15, 14:42

View PostMrAce, on 2018-February-14, 18:03, said:

What am i missing about this banging down the K followed by J ?

Not much but ... (after cashing A)...
  • If KJ win, you can guarantee at least 9 tricks (and retain a residual chance of more) by continuing with KT, overtaking.
  • If an opponent wins an earlier trick, you have an entry to dummy for the finesse.

Arguably, you should be suspicious of a good RHO with Axx, who allows you an entry to dummy. Perhaps he's Greek and was also dealt xxx :(
0

#11 User is offline   gszes 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 3,334
  • Joined: 2011-February-12

Posted 2018-February-15, 16:59

View PostMrAce, on 2018-February-14, 18:03, said:

I do not understand this at all
First of all before you bang down the K at least try to cash one honor, in case someone has stiff Q.
When this fails, instead of creating an entry to dummy by making your entire plan depending on Ax , play a small spade to dummy at least on the 2nd round of spades. Banging down the K and then J, which is basically playing for Ax as you mentioned, wins only when Ax with East because playing small also wins when W has Ax
Ax with E is only % 13.56 while the odds of W holding A is % 50. Granted that you also win when W has Ax brings you up to somewhere % 27, still nowhere close to % 50.
What am i missing about this banging down the K followed by J ?


I am completely uninterested in making 3n (it hurts to say that as a mostly IMP player). I am adopting a radical LOP precisely because it appears that 3n rates to be an inferior contract and the LOP that is being adopted is trying to match the probable 11 or even 12 tricks available in 4s. We are assuming that spades are breaking 32 (this is right only about 68% but since we cannot judge otherwise we are predicating our LOP on that assumption). In a vacuum it is totally right to play a small spade toward the Q but here there is an oddity. With so few spots LHO might easily be looking at something like ATx and would hate to fall prey to us having banged down the K from Kxxxx when it is so :obvious: the Q is an entry anyway. It takes great intestinal fortitude to assume our next play is not low to the Q and they are giving up on getting 2 spade tricks if their p started with Jx. Yes indeed low the Q will work 50% but how many times will banging down the K work in real life and the fog of war? The opps do not know what we are doing yet, that is what makes defense so hard. So in the relevant cases where spades split 32 there are ten where low to the A wins outright and only 8 where the KJ work outright. One also has to take into consideration just how many times lho will (very reasonably) cover the K with ATx or even A9x as they have to decide before seeing their partner's first spade play. Hard to quantify but I will take my chances that the fog of war will win out more often than not making the KJ a better start.

Banging down the dia A to cater to the small chance of a stiff Q goes against the idea of the fog of war. Lho, with Axx of spades, does not know we are within a whisker of setting up the dia suit. Banging down the dia A will give them a much better idea of what is going on and vastly increase the probability they will indeed duck the spade K. If you intend to bank down the dia A then you are definitely better off leading low to the spade Q. I guess I prefer to give my opponents a reasonable chance to go wrong rather then depending on a lucky lie of the cards (still waiting to win the lottery).
0

#12 User is offline   MrAce 

  • VIP Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 6,952
  • Joined: 2009-November-14
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Houston, TX

Posted 2018-February-15, 23:59

Ok ty to Nige1 and George for explaining.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"

"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





0

#13 User is offline   ahydra 

  • AQT92 AQ --- QJ6532
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 2,585
  • Joined: 2009-September-09
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2018-February-18, 00:34

Thanks all, full hand was:



I played low on the first club to the 9 and Ace, then played a spade to the Q and finessed the D10, losing to the Q. Another club came back and I finessed the J, misguessing the position. East switched to the HK. I was eventually able to endplay West for 9 tricks but it was a bottom as everyone else had made 10-11 tricks in NT or spades.

I quite like Nige1's line of setting up diamonds from the top while retaining the spade entry. I also missed the fact the club spots were enough to prevent the clubs running (76 equals against the ten), so could have and probably should have gone up K on the second club.

ahydra
0

#14 User is offline   Tramticket 

  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 960
  • Joined: 2009-May-03
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Kent (Near London)

Posted 2018-February-18, 04:04

Thanks, challenging hand!

Its interesting that west chose to lead a club rather than a major.
0

#15 User is offline   gszes 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 3,334
  • Joined: 2011-February-12

Posted 2018-February-21, 08:02

View PostTramticket, on 2018-February-14, 09:48, said:

I think that playing AK might be right - for the reason suggested by gszes. We are in a poor contract and need to take an anti-room line to regain ground.

Edit: I win trick 1 in hand with the ace to preserve an entry.


If laying down the dia AK fails the fog of war is gone and the opps will have little to no problem with the defense from that point and the spade ace is still out there. The fog of war concept is a potent ally and may prevent the opps from effectively defending when they win the spade ace. Remember that if the opps win the spade ace and do make a "entry killing" shift we can always fall back on laying down the dia AK so there is little reason to do so immediately.
0

Share this topic:


Page 1 of 1
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

1 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users