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1NT is never easy

#1 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2018-February-08, 20:13


Matchpoints. Tuesday's SIMs in England.

You choose to lead the eight of clubs, and dummy plays the ten. Partner plays the six, reverse count. Declarer plays a spade to the ace, partner playing the eight, again reverse count, and leads a club. You play the king, and partner follows with the seven. Over to you.
'When I write a Law,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.'
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#2 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2018-February-09, 10:07

I will try the heart Q surely it is not too much to ask for P to have AJxxx in hearts:) Never fear getting squeezed since you have and easy spade and diamond pitch and declarer will have to guess that u blanked your spade Q if they started with the expected AKxx in spades. If all works right you will score 1c 5h 1s and 1d (exiting with spade after winning bare Q). Should be worth a lot of MP
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#3 User is online   rmnka447 

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Posted 2018-February-09, 14:04

I'm also switching to Q.

Missing honors - AK AJ Q A

West and North have 22 HCP between them, so partner can have 4-6 HCP depending on Opener's hand.

Declarer has been shown to have A and A (by virtue of play to 1st trick). Declarer can't have both A and K for a 1 NT opening because that's too many points (15). Partner should a doubleton as declarer played 2 low and has the A yet. With AKxx, Declarer might well have finessed the J at trick 2. If declarer has A, then Declarer has 7 tricks (3 , 2 , 1 , 1 ).

Q might give up a trick if Declarer has J10x(x) but doesn't hurt if Declarer has Jxx(x). But look like the best chance for tricks for our side.
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#4 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2018-February-09, 15:05

View Postgszes, on 2018-February-09, 10:07, said:

I will try the heart Q surely it is not too much to ask for P to have AJxxx in hearts:)




View Postrmnka447, on 2018-February-09, 14:04, said:

I'm also switching to Q.


An improvement to your defense can be to play small instead of Q. There is almost no hand if at all, where small loses when Q wins.




Q of deserves to find declarer with a slight under range hand.

AKx
Txx
xxx
Axxx

or deserves to find declarer with JTx(x) for his extra tricks and would probably say a silent "thank you" in his head due to MP.

AKx
JTxx
xx
Axxx
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
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#5 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2018-February-09, 15:38

If you assume declarer has AK (seems obvious from the play to me), the a priori odds are 62% that he has J, and 62% that he has Q. Just saying.
Obviously we have a recall bias in favour of the assholes. -helene_t
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#6 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2018-February-09, 15:39

View PostMrAce, on 2018-February-09, 15:05, said:

Q of deserves to find declarer with a slight under range hand.

AKx
Txx
xxx
Axxx

Q might still be successful on this layout...
Obviously we have a recall bias in favour of the assholes. -helene_t
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#7 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2018-February-09, 17:01

View Postcherdano, on 2018-February-09, 15:39, said:

Q might still be successful on this layout...


Na, from QJx(x) he would have started with instead of probably but yeah declarer may go wrong.
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#8 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2018-February-09, 17:25

I am quite tempted by the K. It's clearly a success when declarer doesn't have the Q. But it's sometimes also a success when he has both J and Q.

If declarer has AKx Jxxx Qx Axxx, the K switch prevents him from taking both 3 spade trick and 3 club tricks, and he'll end up with 7 tricks. (He cannot both unblock clubs and keep an entry to his 3rd spade.) If we switch to a low heart, partner will put in the 9 or T; declarer wins J, unblocks clubs, plays a spade to the king, takes his A, and sets up a spade for 8 tricks.
If declarer has AKx Jxx Qxx Axxx, the play may either go as above; or declarer may decide to duck a diamond - in which case he gets the same 8 tricks as after a heart switch. And if declarer has AKx JTx Qxx Axxx, the heart switch gives him 9 tricks (win T, unblock clubs, set up spades and we are forced to give him another red suit trick). Same with J9x instead.
Obviously we have a recall bias in favour of the assholes. -helene_t
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#9 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2018-February-10, 16:57

View Postcherdano, on 2018-February-09, 17:25, said:

I am quite tempted by the K. It's clearly a success when declarer doesn't have the Q. But it's sometimes also a success when he has both J and Q.

If declarer has AKx Jxxx Qx Axxx, the K switch prevents him from taking both 3 spade trick and 3 club tricks, and he'll end up with 7 tricks. (He cannot both unblock clubs and keep an entry to his 3rd spade.) If we switch to a low heart, partner will put in the 9 or T; declarer wins J, unblocks clubs, plays a spade to the king, takes his A, and sets up a spade for 8 tricks.
If declarer has AKx Jxx Qxx Axxx, the play may either go as above; or declarer may decide to duck a diamond - in which case he gets the same 8 tricks as after a heart switch. And if declarer has AKx JTx Qxx Axxx, the heart switch gives him 9 tricks (win T, unblock clubs, set up spades and we are forced to give him another red suit trick). Same with J9x instead.

I did switch to the king of diamonds, and declarer, a strong player, ducked in dummy. Partner encouraged, which I think means she has four cards including the queen or better. Hard not to encourage when dummy ducks. What now?
'When I write a Law,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.'
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