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1NT is never easy

#1 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2018-February-08, 20:13


Matchpoints. Tuesday's SIMs in England.

You choose to lead the eight of clubs, and dummy plays the ten. Partner plays the six, reverse count. Declarer plays a spade to the ace, partner playing the eight, again reverse count, and leads a club. You play the king, and partner follows with the seven. Over to you.
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#2 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2018-February-09, 10:07

I will try the heart Q surely it is not too much to ask for P to have AJxxx in hearts:) Never fear getting squeezed since you have and easy spade and diamond pitch and declarer will have to guess that u blanked your spade Q if they started with the expected AKxx in spades. If all works right you will score 1c 5h 1s and 1d (exiting with spade after winning bare Q). Should be worth a lot of MP
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#3 User is offline   rmnka447 

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Posted 2018-February-09, 14:04

I'm also switching to Q.

Missing honors - AK AJ Q A

West and North have 22 HCP between them, so partner can have 4-6 HCP depending on Opener's hand.

Declarer has been shown to have A and A (by virtue of play to 1st trick). Declarer can't have both A and K for a 1 NT opening because that's too many points (15). Partner should a doubleton as declarer played 2 low and has the A yet. With AKxx, Declarer might well have finessed the J at trick 2. If declarer has A, then Declarer has 7 tricks (3 , 2 , 1 , 1 ).

Q might give up a trick if Declarer has J10x(x) but doesn't hurt if Declarer has Jxx(x). But look like the best chance for tricks for our side.
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#4 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2018-February-09, 15:05

View Postgszes, on 2018-February-09, 10:07, said:

I will try the heart Q surely it is not too much to ask for P to have AJxxx in hearts:)




View Postrmnka447, on 2018-February-09, 14:04, said:

I'm also switching to Q.


An improvement to your defense can be to play small instead of Q. There is almost no hand if at all, where small loses when Q wins.




Q of deserves to find declarer with a slight under range hand.

AKx
Txx
xxx
Axxx

or deserves to find declarer with JTx(x) for his extra tricks and would probably say a silent "thank you" in his head due to MP.

AKx
JTxx
xx
Axxx
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#5 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2018-February-09, 15:38

If you assume declarer has AK (seems obvious from the play to me), the a priori odds are 62% that he has J, and 62% that he has Q. Just saying.
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#6 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2018-February-09, 15:39

View PostMrAce, on 2018-February-09, 15:05, said:

Q of deserves to find declarer with a slight under range hand.

AKx
Txx
xxx
Axxx

Q might still be successful on this layout...
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#7 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2018-February-09, 17:01

View Postcherdano, on 2018-February-09, 15:39, said:

Q might still be successful on this layout...


Na, from QJx(x) he would have started with instead of probably but yeah declarer may go wrong.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"

"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





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#8 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2018-February-09, 17:25

I am quite tempted by the K. It's clearly a success when declarer doesn't have the Q. But it's sometimes also a success when he has both J and Q.

If declarer has AKx Jxxx Qx Axxx, the K switch prevents him from taking both 3 spade trick and 3 club tricks, and he'll end up with 7 tricks. (He cannot both unblock clubs and keep an entry to his 3rd spade.) If we switch to a low heart, partner will put in the 9 or T; declarer wins J, unblocks clubs, plays a spade to the king, takes his A, and sets up a spade for 8 tricks.
If declarer has AKx Jxx Qxx Axxx, the play may either go as above; or declarer may decide to duck a diamond - in which case he gets the same 8 tricks as after a heart switch. And if declarer has AKx JTx Qxx Axxx, the heart switch gives him 9 tricks (win T, unblock clubs, set up spades and we are forced to give him another red suit trick). Same with J9x instead.
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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#9 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2018-February-10, 16:57

View Postcherdano, on 2018-February-09, 17:25, said:

I am quite tempted by the K. It's clearly a success when declarer doesn't have the Q. But it's sometimes also a success when he has both J and Q.

If declarer has AKx Jxxx Qx Axxx, the K switch prevents him from taking both 3 spade trick and 3 club tricks, and he'll end up with 7 tricks. (He cannot both unblock clubs and keep an entry to his 3rd spade.) If we switch to a low heart, partner will put in the 9 or T; declarer wins J, unblocks clubs, plays a spade to the king, takes his A, and sets up a spade for 8 tricks.
If declarer has AKx Jxx Qxx Axxx, the play may either go as above; or declarer may decide to duck a diamond - in which case he gets the same 8 tricks as after a heart switch. And if declarer has AKx JTx Qxx Axxx, the heart switch gives him 9 tricks (win T, unblock clubs, set up spades and we are forced to give him another red suit trick). Same with J9x instead.

I did switch to the king of diamonds, and declarer, a strong player, ducked in dummy. Partner encouraged, which I think means she has four cards including the queen or better. Hard not to encourage when dummy ducks. What now?
I prefer to give the lawmakers credit for stating things for a reason - barmar
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#10 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2018-March-06, 06:38

Paul, since you posted this problem, I knew there'd be more to it than guessing the right switch. However, I don't see anything I can do here besides continuing a diamond. What happened?
The easiest way to count losers is to line up the people who talk about loser count, and count them. -Kieran Dyke
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