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Do you agree with 4NT?

#1 User is online   JanisW 

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Posted 2018-January-18, 10:04



Do you aree with 4NT (feel free to comment on 2, too) and how does N know to bid 6?

Regards
JW
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#2 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2018-January-18, 10:32

What is the form of scoring?

It's difficult to judge the auction objectively when you have presented both hands. Partner does have perfect cards (aces count at this level) and even then, 6 is little better than 50:50. I probably don't bid 4NT.
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#3 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2018-January-18, 11:07

View PostTramticket, on 2018-January-18, 10:32, said:

What is the form of scoring?

It's difficult to judge the auction objectively when you have presented both hands. Partner does have perfect cards (aces count at this level) and even then, 6 is little better than 50:50. I probably don't bid 4NT.


You could easily only be getting 50 out of 4 and you haven't actually beaten it yet (give W Kxxx, Qxxxx x, xxx and E QJx, AKJxx, xxxx, Q), a bigger danger is partner having a 3262/4252 hand with Q and an ace where both games make easily.
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#4 User is offline   steve2005 

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Posted 2018-January-18, 12:05

MP any bid/double/pass is a crap shot. Any plus likely good score. With partner have two bullet things will work for all you resulters.
Imps i like the bid. Even if not making something yourself, 4 easily could make.
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#5 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2018-January-18, 13:18

Any time the auction is jammed it is tough. For all we know looking at our own hand, opps could be down 1 or 2 or be missing a slam themselves. Or 4H could be a normal contract, making 4 or 5. The issue at imps, IMO, is the chance of a double game swing. In this auction with opps having a known fit, the odds suggest we have a fit, as well. That and the 5-loser hand argue in favor of bidding on, I think, and 4NT looks right.

At matchpoints, the question is completely different: how often will bidding 4NT produce a better result than passing? I doubt the entire field would bid 4NT, and perhaps at some other tables the opponents bid 3C instead of 4H or had a disaster and didn't reach 4H or can make 5H anyway. At matchpoints, I would think passing would never be a zero - at worst perhaps a 2 -2.5 on a 12-top 40% of the time, a 4-5.5 about 45% of the time, and a 6-7 about 15% of the time, whereas bidding would probably get 11-12 about 20% of the time and 0-1.5 close to 70% of the time.

I would be curious to hear the opinions of others, though.
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#6 User is online   JanisW 

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Posted 2018-January-18, 13:47

MP-Scoring

The opponents are to be considered one of the weaker pairs in the field.
If the opponents were unknown, would that change your choice of action?
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#7 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2018-January-18, 14:23

Preempts work they make life tough for the best. Quit worrying about how it is plausible for N to find a 6 level bid merely because they have 2 aces and a fit. The 4n bid can be make with a weaker and more distributional hand Qx void QJTx AQJxxxx. Just getting to 5c should be sufficient in almost every case. Note how I suggest clubs vs diamonds even with 4 of them. South did not take advantage of a 2n bid over 1h so their club suit rates to be 2 cards longer than their diamonds and thus a club contract would be generally vastly safer. The 44 dia fit might be the only way to make 6/7 but that point is generally moot since we appear to be stopping in 5c.
I agree with the 4n bid
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#8 User is offline   FelicityR 

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Posted 2018-January-18, 14:28

2 looks the right bid, but I also like 2NT even without the 5-5+ shape as it could be weak or strong, and both suits are good. I'd rather bid 2NT on the first round to put partner in the picture that I am minor suit orientated than try my luck with 4NT on the second round of bidding. There's no knowing that West is going to raise s pre-emptively. Given that has happened, 4NT seems the right bid now but the auction may have gone in entirely another direction, let's say 1 - 2 - 2- pass - 4 and does 4NT look right now?
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#9 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2018-January-18, 14:37

I think North needs to double 4. Regardless, 6 will be a bit of a gamble.
You might speculate on the psychopathology of some posters but hating them seems excessive --- Nige1
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#10 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2018-January-18, 15:18

Agree with Helene, North has a decent hand for a responsive double.
Obviously we have a recall bias in favour of the assholes. -helene_t
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#11 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2018-January-18, 15:34

Just when I read the OP and about to write that N should have doubled, I saw Helene's and Arend's comments...What they said.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
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#12 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2018-January-18, 16:16

View Posthelene_t, on 2018-January-18, 14:37, said:

I think North needs to double 4. Regardless, 6 will be a bit of a gamble.


Thought I was going to be on my own suggesting this.

Put another way, if North DOESN'T double on this, he has to put up with South bidding 4N on hands like the one here when he has something less suitable.
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#13 User is offline   ahydra 

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Posted 2018-January-18, 16:34

Can one really double 4H on two aces and out? It feels about a king short to me:
- at this high level, partner's leaving it in most of the time
- there's no guarantee you'll beat 4H, and even when partner has a hand with 4 spades, you're likely too short in values to make 4S.

Whether North doubles or not, I quite like the 4NT bid. To bid the slam, North might anticipate a singleton heart opposite, trusting both opps to have five. But he still needs a lot of faith - partner could have the SK and CQ instead of the CA, and then you're off two aces. Since we need to find the CQ to make slam anyway - likely to be onside but not guaranteed - I'd be happy with 5D.

ahydra
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#14 User is offline   helene_t 

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Posted 2018-January-18, 18:14

View Postahydra, on 2018-January-18, 16:34, said:

Can one really double 4H on two aces and out?

Yes I think so. Partner made a two-level overcall. Even nonvul at MP they will have two defensive tricks more often than not. If they make 4 it may be a bad score even if not doubled.

I would actually be a bit more afraid of a phantom sac than of 4x=.
You might speculate on the psychopathology of some posters but hating them seems excessive --- Nige1
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#15 User is offline   dsLawsd 

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Posted 2018-January-19, 00:30

North really should Double. Absent that 5 Clubs is my call. North can raise if they need a board at MP but three small clubs is not quite enough to try 6 anyway. (But if I am down about 20 imps as North then I bid 6 knowing that pard just about has to have a singleton heart and I have two first round controls that are working.
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#16 User is offline   dow1978 

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Posted 2018-January-19, 00:45

5!C and with 6!d is double.
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#17 User is offline   0deary 

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Posted 2018-January-19, 06:20

Janis- thank your questions!
4N- no-prefer pass. Its not clear they can make game. And its asking too much for my passed partner to fill 3 of my 5 losers (on few points) for a game for us. You definitely donít want to be down and then at the bottom of the field. Your aim is for a decent MP score anyway from good defence even if their make 4H
2C- no prefer pass. Majors beat minors. No pre-empts- donít give the robbers the blueprint for your alarm. Highly likely West has hearts and itís only a question of E/W finding their best level
Menagerie factors? Well on this hand Iíd defend as accurately as I can and let the standard of the other pairs speak for themselves.Decent East/West players will manage a barrage perfectly well and Iíd end up just giving them more information and choice
Janis I know your hand shows my partner holding 2 Aces. Itís an illusion. The second you bid 4N the Aces disappear and are left with only QJxxx spades, 5 small hearts and bust minors in dummy for your trouble
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#18 User is offline   msjennifer 

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Posted 2018-January-19, 06:38

Personally, sitting North and holding the given hand ,would make a responsive double always. Even then it it difficult to reach SIX diamonds.
As for your question,my answer is that not knowing partners hand 4NT is not a bad bid but it is not a good one either.It can easily cut either way.I shall pass of course.
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#19 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2018-January-19, 07:08

View Post0deary, on 2018-January-19, 06:20, said:

2C- no prefer pass.


How much stronger would you want to be to venture a 2 overcall?


View Post0deary, on 2018-January-19, 06:20, said:

The second you bid 4N the Aces disappear and are left with only QJxxx spades, 5 small hearts and bust minors in dummy for your trouble


I agree that North could be much less suitable, but I think it unlikely that opponents have pre-empted to 4 on a seven-card fit!

I must admit that I think Helene_T and others have it right - North should double 4.
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#20 User is online   rmnka447 

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Posted 2018-January-19, 07:58

2 is fine and if anything might be a slight underbid. In the given auction, I think 4 NT is fine also. You have a 5 loser playing hand with two places to play and longer . 4 NT sounds like a perfect description of what South holds.

As for finding 6 , I wouldn't worry about that. The preempt worked and deprived you of space to determine slam was possible. There's just no way for North to know that 6 is right on this particular hand. The important thing is to land in a decent spot. So, I'd be happy to be in 5 of a minor.

I'm not sure I'd find a double of 4 at the table with the North hand. But it's probably right if your partnership makes reasonable 2 level overcalls. If you overcall very aggressively, it could be more problematic.
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