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Leading unprotected Aces against suit slams...? What is the perceived wisdom...?

#21 User is online   0deary 

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Posted 2018-January-15, 09:39

My previous was based on some old analysis (when I only got 0.1 imps in 6H imps on BBO) so I checked the imps (correct of course) then then fiddled with slightly different fields and MPs but i might have picked up the stick anyway

So here if a quick replacement please

Your issue is under leading an Ace so I should exclude the grand slams and not such an extreme range
So Ive generated a more representative field and asked myself a better question on that (compare make and go down and not compare make with average score)
The result is exactly the opposite I suggested earlier so Ill show why and let you decide!

(table missing- ask me if you are interested)

So at imps if I bid slam over game I gain 15 imps, but lose 11 if I went down. Slightly "odds on" to try slam on this field

(table missing- ask me if you are interested)

So at MPs if I bid slam over game I gain 9 points, but lose 16 if I go down. Significantly against the odds to bid slam on this field

So if Im defending their slam holding an Ace Id reflect that at imps they might be stretching a bit and err on a safe leads, but at MPs theyd be expecting to make it and we need something out of the ordinary to knock it

Sorry! ☺
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