BBO Discussion Forums: A tough 3NT - BBO Discussion Forums

Jump to content

  • 2 Pages +
  • 1
  • 2
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

A tough 3NT

#1 User is offline   lamford 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 5,286
  • Joined: 2007-October-15

Posted 2017-December-31, 08:09


Matchpoints.

West leads a second-from-bad-suits 7. How do you play?
'When I write a Law,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.'
1

#2 User is offline   LBengtsson 

  • PipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 107
  • Joined: 2017-August-10
  • Gender:Male

Posted 2017-December-31, 12:11

J trick 2. if east has qx or kx this might make 9 tricks........also, other line, more guess, trick 2 is 4 toward closed hand. might fool defender
0

#3 User is offline   nige1 

  • 5-level belongs to me
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 7,326
  • Joined: 2004-August-30
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Glasgow Scotland
  • Interests:Poems Computers

Posted 2017-December-31, 15:08

View Postlamford, on 2017-December-31, 08:09, said:


Matchpoints.
West leads a second-from-bad-suits 7. How do you play?

Intriguing and confusing. We await the views of Fluffy and Mr Ace, with interest.

I'm unsure of the best line but guess it might depend on the quality of the defence. The main chance seems to be to win A and run J. If J is covered, then finesse 8. You hope that RHO has K, Q, K3, K2, Q3, Q2, KQ, KQ3, KQ2, or KQ32 (about 30%).

Against best defence, perhaps, you might rely solely on this chance.

At single-dummy, however, If J loses to an honour on the first round and defenders continue s then you could try leading a towards J, hoping for a favourable distribution (about 46% provided South leads the 1st ). This might lose the contract, when s lie badly and s lie favourably.
0

#4 User is offline   Winstonm 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 12,986
  • Joined: 2005-January-08
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Tulsa, Oklahoma
  • Interests:Art, music

Posted 2017-December-31, 22:01

I wonder if there is a benefit to playing on diamonds first in case LHO has KQx of clubs plus AKQ of diamonds?
"For happily the Government of the United States, which gives to bigotry no sanction, to persecution no assistance, requires only that they who live under its protection, should demean themselves as good citizens.” - George Washington, 1790
0

#5 User is offline   Winstonm 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 12,986
  • Joined: 2005-January-08
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Tulsa, Oklahoma
  • Interests:Art, music

Posted 2017-December-31, 22:02

I wonder if there is a benefit to playing on diamonds first in case LHO has KQx of clubs plus AKQ of diamonds? After all, he did make a passive lead.
"For happily the Government of the United States, which gives to bigotry no sanction, to persecution no assistance, requires only that they who live under its protection, should demean themselves as good citizens.” - George Washington, 1790
0

#6 User is offline   MrAce 

  • VIP Member
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 6,944
  • Joined: 2009-November-14
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Houston, TX

Posted 2018-January-01, 02:48

View PostWinstonm, on 2017-December-31, 22:02, said:

I wonder if there is a benefit to playing on diamonds first in case LHO has KQx of clubs plus AKQ of diamonds? After all, he did make a passive lead.


Benefits of playing diamonds first is not limited to this. (It is fantasy anyway to expect W to hold AKQ diamonds and not to have led it ) But if we decide to play diamonds first, it may be better to play towards J or to play the J from dummy if we are concerned about splits.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"





0

#7 User is offline   Winstonm 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 12,986
  • Joined: 2005-January-08
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Tulsa, Oklahoma
  • Interests:Art, music

Posted 2018-January-01, 08:00

View PostMrAce, on 2018-January-01, 02:48, said:

Benefits of playing diamonds first is not limited to this. (It is fantasy anyway to expect W to hold AKQ diamonds and not to have led it ) But if we decide to play diamonds first, it may be better to play towards J or to play the J from dummy if we are concerned about splits.


The issue looks to me to prevent RHO from obtaining the lead when he holds xx in clubs. But if we are looking for a genuine play against best defense (RHO rising with any diamond honor to swtich to a club), we have to either choose to play RHO for honor doubleton in clubs or LHO to hold AKQ of diamonds. If RHO happens to hold Qx or Kx of clubs, we should have led the J of clubs at trick 2. :D With suck limited entries, it looks to me like playing for club honor doubleon on the right is the best chance.
"For happily the Government of the United States, which gives to bigotry no sanction, to persecution no assistance, requires only that they who live under its protection, should demean themselves as good citizens.” - George Washington, 1790
0

#8 User is offline   lamford 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 5,286
  • Joined: 2007-October-15

Posted 2018-January-01, 08:13

View PostWinstonm, on 2018-January-01, 08:00, said:

The issue looks to me to prevent RHO from obtaining the lead when he holds xx in clubs. But if we are looking for a genuine play against best defense (RHO rising with any diamond honor to swtich to a club), we have to either choose to play RHO for honor doubleton in clubs or LHO to hold AKQ of diamonds. If RHO happens to hold Qx or Kx of clubs, we should have led the J of clubs at trick 2. :D With suck limited entries, it looks to me like playing for club honor doubleon on the right is the best chance.

I agree that against God and Angel Gabriel (and seasonal greetings to all BBO members) playing the jack of clubs at trick two might be a whisker better. But we live in the real world. If you lead the jack of diamonds from dummy, you will in practice succeed in all 3-3 diamond breaks and you will still succeed in some favourable club layouts such as KQ doubleton or stiff club honour when they cannot (or don't) cash four diamonds because the ten comes down in two rounds. On the actual hand, East had to put in the king from KTx and his partner had to unblock the queen from AQx. Now East had to lead a low club from Q9x and his partner had to cash the king of clubs when in with the ace of diamonds. G and AG would manage that, but I think that playing the jack of diamonds is perhaps 10% better than the club play in practice. With Hxx opposite HHT in diamonds they could not beat you.
'When I write a Law,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.'
0

#9 User is offline   Winstonm 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 12,986
  • Joined: 2005-January-08
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Tulsa, Oklahoma
  • Interests:Art, music

Posted 2018-January-01, 08:38

View Postlamford, on 2018-January-01, 08:13, said:

I agree that against God and Angel Gabriel (and seasonal greetings to all BBO members) playing the jack of clubs at trick two might be a whisker better. But we live in the real world. If you lead the jack of diamonds from dummy, you will in practice succeed in all 3-3 diamond breaks and you will still succeed in some favourable club layouts such as KQ doubleton or stiff club honour when they cannot (or don't) cash four diamonds because the ten comes down in two rounds. On the actual hand, East had to put in the king from KTx and his partner had to unblock the queen from AQx. Now East had to lead a low club from Q9x and his partner had to cash the king of clubs when in with the ace of diamonds. G and AG would manage that, but I think that playing the jack of diamonds is perhaps 10% better than the club play in practice. With Hxx opposite HHT in diamonds they could not beat you.


Thanks.

I understand there is a significant difference in real play from posted hands so when answering it is tough to tell if the point of the hand is a double-dummy type analysis or a real world challenge. :)

Rising second hand is always difficult, but there are two hints here: the 7 of spades lead suggests card in other suits and then there is this question: why hasn't declarer played on his long suit?

Granted, these are only bare hints but it does steer to the best defense, but even then, very difficult to find at the table.
"For happily the Government of the United States, which gives to bigotry no sanction, to persecution no assistance, requires only that they who live under its protection, should demean themselves as good citizens.” - George Washington, 1790
0

#10 User is offline   lamford 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 5,286
  • Joined: 2007-October-15

Posted 2018-January-01, 09:14

View PostWinstonm, on 2018-January-01, 08:38, said:

Rising second hand is always difficult, but there are two hints here: the 7 of spades lead suggests card in other suits and then there is this question: why hasn't declarer played on his long suit?

Granted, these are only bare hints but it does steer to the best defense, but even then, very difficult to find at the table.

Flying with ATx and partner unblocking with KQx might be the most difficult to find; it would be ludicrous (to unblock) if declarer had T9xx. And many club switches do not beat it anyway.
'When I write a Law,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.'
0

#11 User is offline   Winstonm 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 12,986
  • Joined: 2005-January-08
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Tulsa, Oklahoma
  • Interests:Art, music

Posted 2018-January-01, 09:44

View Postlamford, on 2018-January-01, 09:14, said:

Flying with ATx and partner unblocking with KQx might be the most difficult to find; it would be ludicrous (to unblock) if declarer had T9xx. And many club switches do not beat it anyway.


My initial thought on this hand was to lead a low diamond to the 9.
"For happily the Government of the United States, which gives to bigotry no sanction, to persecution no assistance, requires only that they who live under its protection, should demean themselves as good citizens.” - George Washington, 1790
0

#12 User is offline   nige1 

  • 5-level belongs to me
  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 7,326
  • Joined: 2004-August-30
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Glasgow Scotland
  • Interests:Poems Computers

Posted 2018-January-01, 13:22

View Postlamford, on 2018-January-01, 09:14, said:

Flying with ATx and partner unblocking with KQx might be the most difficult to find; it would be ludicrous (to unblock) if declarer had T9xx. And many club switches do not beat it anyway.

Prospects are poor against best defence but, in practical play, this is mainly a problem in psychology. The solution seems unclear.
  • If declarer plays on s, starting with J from dummy, then over 60% of the time, careful defenders will make 4 tricks in the suit and come to at least 1 trick later. (If declarer could have led the first from hand, his prospects would have been about 10% better).
  • If declarer starts with J from dummy, however, defenders might switch to s, hoping for 4 fast tricks, increasing declarer's chance of a trick.

0

#13 User is offline   lamford 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 5,286
  • Joined: 2007-October-15

Posted 2018-January-02, 05:43

View Postnige1, on 2018-January-01, 13:22, said:

Prospects are poor against best defence but, in practical play, this is mainly a problem in psychology. The solution seems unclear.
  • If declarer plays on s, starting with J from dummy, then over 60% of the time, careful defenders will make 4 tricks in the suit and come to at least 1 trick later. (If declarer could have led the first from hand, his prospects would have been about 10% better).
  • If declarer starts with J from dummy, however, defenders might switch to s, hoping for 4 fast tricks, increasing declarer's chance of a trick.


Another way of looking at is that if you start on clubs, even if the layout in that suit is favourable, the opponents may be able to take four diamond tricks. If you start on diamonds and that suit is favourable, the opponents are less likely to be able to take two club tricks. I now think that starting with a low diamond from Jxx is slightly better. If they have four diamond tricks, you have no chance anyway. If the diamonds are 3-3, then they have to switch to clubs, and you can still play for all the winning lines there or rise with the ace and play another diamond, when they may not be able to get to their club tricks. I think leading a low diamond is better as in the danger layout KTx opposite AQx it is even harder for them to rise and unblock. Same for ATx opposite KQx.
'When I write a Law,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.'
0

#14 User is offline   msjennifer 

  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 707
  • Joined: 2013-August-03
  • Gender:Female
  • Location:Variable private
  • Interests:Cricket,Photography,Paediatrics and Community Medicine.

Posted 2018-January-02, 07:33

I shall play on clubs.Win the spade Ace and lead the Jack of club.
0

#15 User is offline   PhilG007 

  • PipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 780
  • Joined: 2013-February-24
  • Gender:Male
  • Location:Dundee Scotland United Kingdom
  • Interests:Occasional chess player. Dominoes

Posted 2018-January-02, 15:24

View Postmsjennifer, on 2018-January-02, 07:33, said:

I shall play on clubs.Win the spade Ace and lead the Jack of club.

And if East plays low...? What then?
"It is not enough to be a good player, you must also play well"
- Dr Tarrasch(1862-1934)German Chess Grandmaster

Bridge is a game where you have two opponents...and often three(!)


"Any palooka can take tricks with Aces and Kings; the true expert shows his prowess
by how he handles the two's and three's" - Mollo's Hideous Hog
0

#16 User is offline   johnu 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,866
  • Joined: 2008-September-10

Posted 2018-January-02, 15:38

View Postnige1, on 2017-December-31, 15:08, said:

I'm unsure of the best line but guess it might depend on the quality of the defence. The main chance seems to be to win A and run J. If J is covered, then finesse 8. You hope that RHO has K, Q, K3, K2, Q3, Q2, KQ, KQ3, KQ2, or KQ32 (about 30%).


Running J also wins if RHO has 932, since the remaining club honor will fall under the ace. As noted, if you set up 2 clubs for the opponents you can't set up diamonds without losing 5+ tricks.
0

#17 User is offline   johnu 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,866
  • Joined: 2008-September-10

Posted 2018-January-02, 15:42

View PostPhilG007, on 2018-January-02, 15:24, said:

And if East plays low...? What then?


Really PhilG007? You have 2 legal options, play the ace or play low, and 1 entry to dummy. If you play the ace, you will make 1 club trick (the ace) unless West has exactly KQ tight. Look at nige1's post #3 and confirm to yourself that playing low offers more chances of success.
0

#18 User is offline   miamijd 

  • PipPipPipPip
  • Group: Full Members
  • Posts: 386
  • Joined: 2015-November-14

Posted 2018-January-02, 16:23

Percentage-wise, it looks like 3/3 diamonds is a slightly better shot than leading the Jc at trick 2. But it's close.

Cheers,
mike
0

#19 User is offline   parsonsdav 

  • Pip
  • Group: Members
  • Posts: 2
  • Joined: 2018-January-02

Posted 2018-January-02, 16:27

The only possibility here is if diamonds split 3-3. You can play diamonds three times, and as long as they don't get two clubs first, you'll make nine tricks. If diamonds don't split 3-3, you won't make it on the club J lead, even if clubs are ideally placed.
0

#20 User is offline   johnu 

  • PipPipPipPipPipPip
  • Group: Advanced Members
  • Posts: 1,866
  • Joined: 2008-September-10

Posted 2018-January-02, 19:02

View Postparsonsdav, on 2018-January-02, 16:27, said:

The only possibility here is if diamonds split 3-3. You can play diamonds three times, and as long as they don't get two clubs first, you'll make nine tricks. If diamonds don't split 3-3, you won't make it on the club J lead, even if clubs are ideally placed.


Welcome to the forums parsonsdav.

There may be entry problems (and potential heart problems) depending on the play, but H10 or AKQx with West allow you to manufacture a diamond trick if you lead from South. Also, West may error with HHxx and play an honor on a lead from South.
0

Share this topic:


  • 2 Pages +
  • 1
  • 2
  • You cannot start a new topic
  • You cannot reply to this topic

1 User(s) are reading this topic
0 members, 1 guests, 0 anonymous users