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Human blunder discussion thread

#1 User is online   nige1 

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Posted 2017-December-10, 04:03

This was the 2nd deal in the Toast1 v Nige1 Challenge match.
Toast1 made 4+1.
In the light of GIB(LHO)'s Michael's cue-bid, my slam acceptance is optimistic.
GIB(OXO)'s 5 is an excellent bid and I should heed the Gypsy's warning.
The lead was the 5 and I was defeated when I played a to the K.
Mercifully, GIB(OXO) forbore to comment on my efforts.
Would you have found the superior and successful line?

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#2 User is offline   gordontd 

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Posted 2017-December-10, 04:34

Don't you need to have determined that West's second suit is diamonds for the successful line to be chosen? I'm not sure there's any reason to expect that to be the case.
Gordon Rainsford
London UK
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#3 User is offline   steve2005 

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Posted 2017-December-10, 10:58

Do you really think your K is a trick?
Haven't thorough looked at but I think you need club finesse to make. When club finesse works cash A and west will show out. Now you have an automatic squeeze.
So yes would find.
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#4 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2017-December-10, 12:47

View Poststeve2005, on 2017-December-10, 10:58, said:

Do you really think your K is a trick?
Haven't thorough looked at but I think you need club finesse to make. When club finesse works cash A and west will show out. Now you have an automatic squeeze.
So yes would find.


No you don't need finesse to work. What Gordon said is true.



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#5 User is online   nige1 

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Posted 2017-December-10, 16:07

View PostMrAce, on 2017-December-10, 12:47, said:


No you don't need finesse to work.
What Gordon said is true.

At the time, my play seemed inferior. Now I concede that GordonTD and Mr Ace have a point: the 2 lines are quite close.
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#6 User is offline   johnu 

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Posted 2017-December-10, 17:17

View Postnige1, on 2017-December-10, 16:07, said:

At the time, my play seemed inferior. Now I concede that GordonTD and Mr Ace have a point: the 2 lines are quite close.


I don't know if GIB East is programmed to double 3 with 3 hearts to the ace. If double is possible, then leading to K seems like a losing line. East can't help with a minor suit lead but that's not a consideration for GIB.
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#7 User is offline   steve2005 

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Posted 2017-December-10, 19:35

View PostMrAce, on 2017-December-10, 12:47, said:

No you don't need finesse to work. What Gordon said is true.

Gordon doesn't state a line.
How do you make 6 without club finesse?
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#8 User is offline   johnu 

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Posted 2017-December-10, 19:46

View Poststeve2005, on 2017-December-10, 19:35, said:

Gordon doesn't state a line.
How do you make 6 without club finesse?


Same way nige1 went down, except if the A is onside you only lose 1 heart, ruff the 3rd heart in dummy, and pitch Q on a high diamond.
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#9 User is offline   ncohen 

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Posted 2017-December-11, 09:38

The club finesse is better than the heart finesse. W is known to have at least 5 hearts to E's 3, so has at least 5 chances of 8 of having the A. W is NOT known to have long clubs, so the club finesse gives better odds.
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#10 User is offline   steve2005 

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Posted 2017-December-11, 10:01

View Postncohen, on 2017-December-11, 09:38, said:

The club finesse is better than the heart finesse. W is known to have at least 5 hearts to E's 3, so has at least 5 chances of 8 of having the A. W is NOT known to have long clubs, so the club finesse gives better odds.

That's what i said when I said you need the club finesse. Having K as a trick is asking a lot, but at least decent chance clubs isn't west's minor.

So you need to place or King.


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#11 User is offline   gordontd 

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Posted 2017-December-11, 10:13

View Poststeve2005, on 2017-December-11, 10:01, said:

That's what i said when I said you need the club finesse. Having K as a trick is asking a lot, but at least decent chance clubs isn't west's minor.

You have longer and better diamonds than clubs, so I'm not sure why you would expect West's suit to be diamonds.
Gordon Rainsford
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#12 User is offline   ncohen 

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Posted 2017-December-11, 15:59

My earlier analysis was wrong. Leading to ht K, requires only that E hold the heart A. It's worse than 3/8 or 37.5% since W may have 6 hearts and since a W hand lacking the H A may be too weak to bid 2S. But finessing club requires a parlay -- that E has club K, W has diamonds, W has ht A (or squeeze doesn't work), and that you can read the position -- you might go wrong if W has 6 D and 5 hearts, or 6-4. The chance that W has 5 diamonds instead of 5 clubs is roughly 4/11. Give W 3 clubs and the chance E has the K is 5/8. If E has the C K, W is very likely to have ht A for bid, and the odd distributions are unlikely. So, the club finesse is somewhat less than 5/8 x 4/11 = 20/88 = 23%.

No inferences from opening lead, although it may increase the chance of 5+ diamonds since it didn't show a doubleton.

So, neither line is good. Perhaps leading to ht K is better.
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#13 User is offline   GrahamJson 

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Posted 2017-December-12, 03:16

Doesn’t it make more sense to play west for all the outstanding honours? If so you have to hope that he has length in diamonds, in which case running the spades will put him under intolerable pressure. He will need to discard from Void AQ J984 K5. A heart discard enables declarer to set up two tricks immediately whilst a minor suit discard gives up one trick which, when cashed, squeezes west again.

Of course if you believe that west cannot hold both the HA and the CK, as that would make him too strong for his 2H bid, then it is even money which you play him for. In which case you are best playing him for the CK and leading up to the HA
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#14 User is offline   fourdad 

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Posted 2017-December-12, 05:08

seems to me that the discussion should be about how bad the 4C bid is! :blink:
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#15 User is offline   GrahamJson 

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Posted 2017-December-12, 06:12

View Postfourdad, on 2017-December-12, 05:08, said:

seems to me that the discussion should be about how bad the 4C bid is! :blink:

I guess that it is difficult to criticise bidding when robots are involved. However I don’t think the 4C bid is too bad. Maybe north could then cue 4D and maybe S try 4H. But after that I think both have said enough and shouldn’t venture past 4S.
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#16 User is online   nige1 

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Posted 2017-December-12, 14:24

View Postfourdad, on 2017-December-12, 05:08, said:

seems to me that the discussion should be about how bad the 4C bid is! :blink:

View PostGrahamJson, on 2017-December-12, 06:12, said:

I guess that it is difficult to criticise bidding when robots are involved. However I don't think the 4C bid is too bad. Maybe north could then cue 4D and maybe S try 4H. But after that I think both have said enough and shouldn't venture past 4S.

My 6 bid was wrong but Wow!
North's 3 bid is unlimited.
As South, what alternative to a 4 cue-bid would you consider?

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#17 User is online   nige1 

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Posted 2017-December-12, 15:02

View PostGrahamJson, on 2017-December-12, 03:16, said:

Doesn't it make more sense to play west for all the outstanding honours? If so you have to hope that he has length in diamonds, in which case running the spades will put him under intolerable pressure. He will need to discard from Void AQ J984 K5. A heart discard enables declarer to set up two tricks immediately whilst a minor suit discard gives up one trick which, when cashed, squeezes west again.
Of course if you believe that west cannot hold both the HA and the CK, as that would make him too strong for his 2H bid, then it is even money which you play him for. In which case you are best playing him for the CK and leading up to the HA

Triple squeeze without the count!
A cunning suggestion by GrahamJson!

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#18 User is offline   GrahamJson 

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Posted 2017-December-12, 15:34

View Postnige1, on 2017-December-12, 15:02, said:


Triple squeeze without the count!
A cunning suggestion by GrahamJson!


It’s a good example of a principle outlined by Terrence Reece in “Practical bidding and practical play” (in my view, the best book on Bridge ever written ). This is that, even if you can’t envision the final position you should never underestimate the advantage of cashing out a long suit. It will often put the defenders in an impossible position. Incidentally, in this case it should not be too difficult to read the situation; just look for a diamond discard from west or the appearance of the heart queen.
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