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Your Lead

#1 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2017-October-19, 14:38



matchpoints. rank your choices. 1NT was g11-14
'When I write a Law,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean — neither more nor less.'
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#2 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2017-October-19, 16:00

8S

2nd choice 8D.
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#3 User is offline   broze 

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Posted 2017-October-19, 16:03

D2
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#4 User is online   nige1 

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Posted 2017-October-19, 18:18

View Postlamford, on 2017-October-19, 14:38, said:


matchpoints. rank your choices. 1NT was g11-14

I rank
  • . Opponents are unlikely to hold a 5+ Major.
  • . Safeish.
  • . Passive and partner might have competed with 5+ s.
  • . Brave gamble, likely to go horribly wrong.

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#5 User is offline   The_Badger 

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Posted 2017-October-19, 18:32

The only lead I wouldn't make is a . Not keen on a either. Could give away a trick. Rather try to set up a 'potential' winner in the second of my four suits while still retaining entries. If the suit wasn't headed by the 10 I would be leading the 8, so it's a boring 2.

I'd rather go semi-conventional - 4th highest (assuming that's the leads we use) - and 'go' with the field than trying to find a killing lead at matchpoints.
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#6 User is offline   nekthen 

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Posted 2017-October-20, 02:38

Agree with the Badger that I am not leading a club. I do not like leading a 2 as 4th highest. I have seen too many instances of that giving away the position to declarer. Many will not bid 2 unless they have a 6 card suit, so I will hope to find p with a 5 card suit.
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#7 User is offline   gszes 

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Posted 2017-October-20, 05:06

low heart

too many frozen suit combinations include a defender having T8 for me to be happy with spades or diamonds. I would lead a club ONLY if we needed a top or if our partnership agreement was to always play top or bottom leads (most of which will fail rather spectacularly). P had a chance to compete in PO seat and their failure to do so greatly increases the probability they are balanced since they are at least as strong as we are.
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#8 User is offline   NickRW 

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Posted 2017-October-20, 05:59

D2
"Pass is your friend" - my brother in law - who likes to bid a lot.
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#9 User is offline   LBengtsson 

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Posted 2017-October-20, 08:18

2
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#10 User is offline   RD350LC 

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Posted 2017-October-20, 08:53

View Postgszes, on 2017-October-20, 05:06, said:

low heart

too many frozen suit combinations include a defender having T8 for me to be happy with spades or diamonds. I would lead a club ONLY if we needed a top or if our partnership agreement was to always play top or bottom leads (most of which will fail rather spectacularly). P had a chance to compete in PO seat and their failure to do so greatly increases the probability they are balanced since they are at least as strong as we are.

I tend to leading a low heart as well. Safe, as it does not give away anything.
I definitely would not lead a club.
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#11 User is offline   PhilG007 

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Posted 2017-October-20, 13:38

View Postlamford, on 2017-October-19, 14:38, said:



matchpoints. rank your choices. 1NT was g11-14

2 Unlike a suit contract,it's perfectly safe to lead away from aces
at No Trumps This suit could also be declarer's weak point.
It's not a sin to play bridge,but it's a crime if you play it badly(!) ;)
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#12 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2017-October-20, 15:25

I would lead a heart last out of the suits.
Don't feel strongly between a spade and a diamond. A club could be a super goal or a disaster.
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#13 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2017-October-20, 19:54

I like a club. It's the one suit I can't give a trick away in, which is my normal priority to 1N. It might help set up our suit or theirs - in the latter case I'll still get one chance to run some tricks (would not lead a club if P had a natural 2 call available though).

Diamond easy second choice, then spade.
The "4 is a transfer to 4" award goes to Jinksy - PhilKing
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#14 User is offline   miamijd 

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Posted 2017-October-20, 21:32

Who knows what is right? I know I don't, and I'm pretty sure none of you do, either!

Seriously, almost anything could be right. A spade could hit partner's suit, and at least it probably doesn't give much away. A heart could set up a long-card trick for your side, but it could also give a trick. A diamond could also set up a long-card trick, but it may be too late to take it. A club is risky, as that could be declarer's suit (he might hook twice otherwise), but partner might have JTxxx.

I think at MPs I would lead a low diamond, but questions like this don't seem very useful to me, because there is too much guesswork and luck involved to really come up with a "best" answer.

Cheers,
mike
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#15 User is offline   The_Badger 

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Posted 2017-October-20, 22:20

View Postmiamijd, on 2017-October-20, 21:32, said:

Who knows what is right? I know I don't, and I'm pretty sure none of you do, either!

Seriously, almost anything could be right. A spade could hit partner's suit, and at least it probably doesn't give much away. A heart could set up a long-card trick for your side, but it could also give a trick. A diamond could also set up a long-card trick, but it may be too late to take it. A club is risky, as that could be declarer's suit (he might hook twice otherwise), but partner might have JTxxx.

I think at MPs I would lead a low diamond, but questions like this don't seem very useful to me, because there is too much guesswork and luck involved to really come up with a "best" answer.

Cheers,
mike


Best answer on here, Mike. Exactly what I was thinking when I commented. With scant information to go on - except everyone appears to be average-pointed and balanced - it is a 'toss a coin' scenario. Who knows whether every East will be in a 1NT contract, too? The only small bit of information that you have is that declarer has opened a weak NT, so is less likely to have a 5 card major playing Acol (presumably) as a rebid at the 2 level can be made on a 5 card suit, but then again they may be playing 5M Acol as I do occasionally. As you say, it's luck and a guess.
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#16 User is offline   rmnka447 

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Posted 2017-October-20, 23:05

Note that opener could hold up to 5 cards in either minor. So neither minor appeals to me. A lead with something like H9 on the table could give up the suit.

Partner has to have at least 6 (Responder bad 11, opener 14) up to about a max of about 13-14 where action would be taken in reopening seat.

Responder probably doesn't have a 5 card major as with one and without enough to invite, 2 M (or transfer to 2 M) would be normal.

I think I'm putting 8 on the table. Especially at MP, if the opponents are 4-4 in , 2 making their way may outscore 1 NT.
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#17 User is offline   mcphee 

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Posted 2017-October-21, 03:08

Eeany meany miny moe is my choice in the rate your lead category, with a slight edge to moe, or was it meany? Wrong it was miny. Finally the I found the answer taking all my 2's sliding them like 3 card monty and suggested declarer choose, he landed on 2!H.
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#18 User is offline   PhilG007 

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Posted 2017-October-21, 06:07

View Postmiamijd, on 2017-October-20, 21:32, said:

Who knows what is right? I know I don't, and I'm pretty sure none of you do, either!

Seriously, almost anything could be right. A spade could hit partner's suit, and at least it probably doesn't give much away. A heart could set up a long-card trick for your side, but it could also give a trick. A diamond could also set up a long-card trick, but it may be too late to take it. A club is risky, as that could be declarer's suit (he might hook twice otherwise), but partner might have JTxxx.

I think at MPs I would lead a low diamond, but questions like this don't seem very useful to me, because there is too much guesswork and luck involved to really come up with a "best" answer.

Cheers,
mike

My choice was based on the lesser evil. A club achieves nothing;a diamond lead is pointless..partner may return the suit expecting
you to have led from a high honor. The same goes for the spades. So,by a process of elimination,the best lead is the 4th highest heart.
It's not a sin to play bridge,but it's a crime if you play it badly(!) ;)
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#19 User is offline   nullve 

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Posted 2017-October-21, 07:41

I think the K (or the Q, if the K would ask for an unblock) is the Bird-Anthias lead on this hand.
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#20 User is offline   Jinksy 

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Posted 2017-October-21, 07:51

View Postnullve, on 2017-October-21, 07:41, said:

I think the K (or the Q, if the K would ask for an unblock) is the Bird-Anthias lead on this hand.


If so I would expect it to do better still with 4 human players, since any of the other suits look reasonably likely to save declarer a guess that the DD solver will always get right.
The "4 is a transfer to 4" award goes to Jinksy - PhilKing
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