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Guess the Clubs

#21 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2017-October-18, 01:38

View PostPhilG007, on 2017-October-17, 15:51, said:

I saw the post and replied to it.
With 9 cards missing the queen the finesse is only 42.62% whereas playing for the drop
is 58.48% So the odds favor cashing the AK[clubs and hoping the queen drops.


Also say E has:



You draw one trump, play a heart to the 9 and A, he returns a heart, you ruff, spade to the Q heart ruff and he pitches, now he is pretty much certain to have Q[clubs] to make his opening bid 1 rather than 3 in second seat.

There is no excuse for not trying to find out more about E's hand before attacking the clubs.
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#22 User is offline   PhilG007 

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Posted 2017-October-18, 07:44

View Postahydra, on 2017-October-17, 18:52, said:

I believe for 9 cards missing the Q it's something like 52-48 in favour of the drop, everything else being equal. Of course, the key point on this hand is that all is NOT equal. East has longer diamonds, so West has likely longer clubs - but at the same time West has longer spades and East has the points, so take your pick.

ahydra

Exactly It's like choosing between tea and coffee ;)
It's not a sin to play bridge,but it's a crime if you play it badly(!) ;)
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#23 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2017-October-19, 14:14

I saw no gain and only risk in playing an early heart. Before drawing trumps it risks a club ruff. Later it might just lose an IMP. And our oppo, King and Tosh won the quarters and semis of the Gold Cup by one IMP! It looks like East has seven diamonds. West will surely not have six hearts and a diamond fit and not made a negative double. It is close but available places suggests East has a singleton club and he was indeed 1-4-7-1.
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#24 User is offline   Lovera 

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Posted 2017-October-19, 15:18

View Postlamford, on 2017-October-19, 14:14, said:

I saw no gain and only risk in playing an early heart. Before drawing trumps it risks a club ruff. Later it might just lose an IMP. And our oppo, King and Tosh won the quarters and semis of the Gold Cup by one IMP! It looks like East has seven diamonds. West will surely not have six hearts and a diamond fit and not made a negative double. It is close but available places suggests East has a singleton club and he was indeed 1-4-7-1.

If it so(i=1-4-7-1) and being not vul vs vul with 12 points almost why not to defend (E-W have 8 tricks) ?
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#25 User is offline   Lovera 

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Posted 2017-October-20, 14:25

Although can be also interesting to know how the other pairs have bidded against 6 it being defensible at high level in the diamond suit by opponents - one among few contracts.
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#26 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2017-October-21, 05:29

I don't understand the auction. Were you looking for a grand when you bid 4!H? Perhaps partner forgot to open with Qxx Axxx x KQxxx?
I don't understand the comment about the opening lead: it may have been 'consistent' with Hxx or Hxxx, but was it also 'consistent' with 3 low or 4 low?

Anyway, like everyone else I would play on hearts before touching clubs. I'll learn something and I can't imagine how it can cost. If clubs are 4-0 East would have doubled (and we would have gone off by now) so what club ruff are you planning to concede?
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#27 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2017-October-21, 05:30

View Postlamford, on 2017-October-19, 14:14, said:

I saw no gain and only risk in playing an early heart. Before drawing trumps it risks a club ruff. Later it might just lose an IMP. And our oppo, King and Tosh won the quarters and semis of the Gold Cup by one IMP! It looks like East has seven diamonds. West will surely not have six hearts and a diamond fit and not made a negative double. It is close but available places suggests East has a singleton club and he was indeed 1-4-7-1.


I also don't understand the comment about '1 IMP' given this was a league match, not a KO match.
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#28 User is offline   Lovera 

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Posted 2017-October-21, 10:19

View PostFrancesHinden, on 2017-October-21, 05:30, said:

I also don't understand the comment about '1 IMP' given this was a league match, not a KO match.

That is also reported on EBU site in the box "Patterson wins the Gold Cup" having been realized the difference of 1 IMP in quarter and semifinal. I have tried to view this hand but also in vugraph i have found anything (perhaps out of period).
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#29 User is offline   FrancesHinden 

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Posted 2017-October-21, 12:10

View PostLovera, on 2017-October-21, 10:19, said:

That is also reported on EBU site in the box "Patterson wins the Gold Cup" having been realized the difference of 1 IMP in quarter and semifinal. I have tried to view this hand but also in vugraph i have found anything (perhaps out of period).


You have misunderstood Lamford's post.
He was playing in a league match against the team that had recently won the gold cup. He was not playing in the gold cup.
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#30 User is offline   Lovera 

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Posted 2017-October-21, 12:32

View PostFrancesHinden, on 2017-October-21, 12:10, said:

You have misunderstood Lamford's post.
He was playing in a league match against the team that had recently won the gold cup. He was not playing in the gold cup.

Ah, than i have not found because i was looking for the wrong side.
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#31 User is offline   Lovera 

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Posted 2017-October-21, 18:23

View PostFrancesHinden, on 2017-October-21, 05:29, said:

I don't understand the auction. Were you looking for a grand when you bid 4!H? Perhaps partner forgot to open with Qxx Axxx x KQxxx?
I don't understand the comment about the opening lead: it may have been 'consistent' with Hxx or Hxxx, but was it also 'consistent' with 3 low or 4 low?

Anyway, like everyone else I would play on hearts before touching clubs. I'll learn something and I can't imagine how it can cost. If clubs are 4-0 East would have doubled (and we would have gone off by now) so what club ruff are you planning to concede?

If partner hand is N not has in heart A but QJ and in club suit there is not Q but J. Anyhow agree with me that bidding by E-W had to be ultheriorly developed ?
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#32 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2017-October-22, 03:22

View PostFrancesHinden, on 2017-October-21, 05:29, said:

I don't understand the auction. Were you looking for a grand when you bid 4!H? Perhaps partner forgot to open with Qxx Axxx x KQxxx?
I don't understand the comment about the opening lead: it may have been 'consistent' with Hxx or Hxxx, but was it also 'consistent' with 3 low or 4 low?

Anyway, like everyone else I would play on hearts before touching clubs. I'll learn something and I can't imagine how it can cost. If clubs are 4-0 East would have doubled (and we would have gone off by now) so what club ruff are you planning to concede?

I had not ruled out a grand. Partner could have had Qxx Axx x Kxxxxx or xxxx Axx x KQxxx. And I don't think you do learn anything meaningful by playing a heart. Most of the time it loses an IMP for no gain. And if partner can forget to open Qxx Axxx x KQxxx, Tosh might forget to double with xxx Axx KQTxxxx none. Or, more likely, he feared a correction to 6NT when declarer has AKJxxx x Ax AQxx opposite Qxx KQxx x KTxxx, and he hopes he has done the good work by not doubling 4D. Given that West did not make a negative double and East did not bid hearts, there is a more than reasonable chance that the hearts are 4-4.
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#33 User is offline   Lovera 

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Posted 2017-October-22, 14:09

At least after the 4 by N, considering also his previous forcing and the 4 cue by S these indicating where the bidding was likely to end, E should have bidded (better if supported by W) 5 to force S to declare 5. In this case, at this point, it is better to double to see if accepted with relatif gain vs slam or redoubled. If N-S bid 5XX than it will be necessary to bid 6, always to see if it will be doubled or whether the pair decides to go, despite the previous double, to slam.In the latter case, having the strength and being in the range for sacrifice, can be bidded 7.
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#34 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2017-October-23, 05:09

View PostCyberyeti, on 2017-October-18, 01:38, said:

Also say E has:



You draw one trump, play a heart to the 9 and A, he returns a heart, you ruff, spade to the Q heart ruff and he pitches, now he is pretty much certain to have Q to make his opening bid 1 rather than 3 in second seat.

There is no excuse for not trying to find out more about E's hand before attacking the clubs.

West won't have Kxxxxx and a diamond fit and a stiff club and have "forgotten to bid" throughout!
'When I write a Law,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean neither more nor less.'
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#35 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2017-October-23, 05:13

View PostLovera, on 2017-October-22, 14:09, said:

At least after the 4 by N, considering also his previous forcing and the 4 cue by S these indicating where the bidding was likely to end, E should have bidded (better if supported by W) 5 to force S to declare 5. In this case, at this point, it is better to double to see if accepted with relatif gain vs slam or redoubled. If N-S bid 5XX than it will be necessary to bid 6, always to see if it will be doubled or whether the pair decides to go, despite the previous double, to slam.In the latter case, having the strength and being in the range for sacrifice, can be bidded 7.

The stripe-tailed ape in the pass-out seat is an interesting convention, but East-West weren't playing it. Of course I might have misunderstood you, or maybe there was an error by Google Translate.
'When I write a Law,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean neither more nor less.'
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#36 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2017-October-23, 05:23

View PostFrancesHinden, on 2017-October-21, 05:30, said:

I also don't understand the comment about '1 IMP' given this was a league match, not a KO match.

The margin of victory in Jones v Black was 27 IMPs which was only 15-5. 28 IMPs would have been 16-4. Sadly, one of our team squandered an IMP by not finding a compound squeeze for the overtrick in 1NT (he has been subsequently benched). So, 1 IMP will matter some of the time. The winning margin, is, I think, a product of two Poisson distributions, and the chance of 1 IMP costing a VP is around 8%, which is much higher than the chance of it mattering in a KO match, so I don't understand your comment. 1 IMP is about 5 times as likely to matter in a league match converted to VPs than in a KO match.
'When I write a Law,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean neither more nor less.'
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#37 User is offline   Lovera 

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Posted 2017-October-23, 08:34

View Postlamford, on 2017-October-23, 05:13, said:

The stripe-tailed ape in the pass-out seat is an interesting convention, but East-West weren't playing it. Of course I might have misunderstood you, or maybe there was an error by Google Translate.

Hi lamford. What i've told is the bidding sequence for applied defence by E-W (starting after the 4 by N) against the slam of N-S for gain IMPs. Infact 7 is down but gains vs 6.
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#38 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2017-October-23, 09:47

View PostLovera, on 2017-October-23, 08:34, said:

Hi lamford. What i've told is the bidding sequence for defence by E-W against the slam of N-S for gain IMPs. Infact 7 is down but gains vs 6.

You wrote:

View PostLovera, on 2017-October-22, 14:09, said:

E should have bidded (better if supported by W) 5 to force S to declare 5. In this case, at this point, it is better to double to see if accepted with relatif gain vs slam or redoubled. If N-S bid 5XX than it will be necessary to bid 6

You are suggesting that "E should have bidded 5 and if South declare 5 you should double". If it is redoubled then you would pull to 6. I was advocating an improvement of passing out 5.
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#39 User is offline   Lovera 

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Posted 2017-October-23, 17:36

View Postlamford, on 2017-October-23, 09:47, said:

You wrote:

You are suggesting that "E should have bidded 5 and if South declare 5 you should double". If it is redoubled then you would pull to 6. I was advocating an improvement of passing out 5.

Yes, but only can you explain about "i was advocating an improvement of passing out 5"? Thanks.
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#40 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2017-October-24, 04:09

View PostLovera, on 2017-October-23, 17:36, said:

Yes, but only can you explain about "i was advocating an improvement of passing out 5"? Thanks.

I liked the idea of bidding 5D and then giving in to 5S. However, if 5S comes round to you, the gambit of doubling and then pulling the redouble to 6D is inferior to the simple pass.
'When I write a Law,' Humpty Dumpty said, in rather a scornful tone, 'it means just what I choose it to mean neither more nor less.'
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