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Can you make 3NT?

#1 User is offline   zenbiddist 

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Posted 2017-September-18, 01:47



My dad gave me this hand from a local teams match, and I think it's actually quite intricate.

LHO leads the 2 to RHO's ace.
RHO returns a diamond, LHO pitches. Your go.

Once you've decided on your line, read on:

If you overtake the Q, RHO holds up as long as possible with Kxxx. If you play another club, he exits a diamond.
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#2 User is offline   The_Badger 

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Posted 2017-September-18, 05:02

By the way, what's South doing passing on the first round of bidding? Waiting for a re-opening double from partner? There's plenty of hands where North couldn't make another squeak.
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#3 User is offline   JanisW 

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Posted 2017-September-18, 06:46

hi,

why is East allowed to Exit with a Diamond?
I can simply cash my 4 Diamond winners, overtake the Q, and duck the Major-suit return to dummy.
worst case W gets in with the K and returns a , but E is marked with singleton heart, if the bidding can be trusted, so no worries there.


regards
JW
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#4 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2017-September-18, 07:46

View PostJanisW, on 2017-September-18, 06:46, said:

hi,

why is East allowed to Exit with a Diamond?
I can simply cash my 4 Diamond winners, overtake the Q, and duck the Major-suit return to dummy.
worst case W gets in with the K and returns a , but E is marked with singleton heart, if the bidding can be trusted, so no worries there.


regards
JW


What are you discarding from dummy on the three long diamonds? You seem to be squeezing yourself. For that matter, what are you discarding from hand on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th club?
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#5 User is offline   JanisW 

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Posted 2017-September-18, 12:07

View PostTramticket, on 2017-September-18, 07:46, said:

What are you discarding from dummy on the three long diamonds? You seem to be squeezing yourself. For that matter, what are you discarding from hand on the 2nd, 3rd and 4th club?


Good point that should've been addressed in my post, I have to admit I answered solely based on my gut-feeling - But I still think, E should not be left with a diamond exit.
So I'm going to pitch 3 Clubs on the Diamonds and then 3 Hearts on the Clubs and the one getting squeezed will be W :)
This line makes everytime E has 1 heart honour or the K.
Admittedly, in that case, playing the Q first and the diamond honours later changes nothing.


If East has none of these 3 (A,Q,K) then the only winning line is to play 3 Diamonds and pitch a spade honour on the last diamond.
Of course, this is all done by laying down the cards and going through the lines. I would have no shot of ever finding this play on the table and at the time you would have to choose what to discard you don't know if East held one of these 3 honours
But if E has xxx, x, Axxxx, Kxxx playing the 3 top Diamonds is the only winning line so my gut-feeling was right :)
Would have lost, though, because I would never have pitched a spade honour...

This would be an exemplary 4 card ending with the A in E after cashing the diamond honours (4) and the clubs (3), W is squeezed on trick 9



Alternatively, South could be cashing his last Diamond honour, having already pitched the 6

regards
JW
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#6 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2017-September-18, 12:49

View Postzenbiddist, on 2017-September-18, 01:47, said:

My dad gave me this hand from a local teams match, and I think it's actually quite intricate.
LHO leads the 2 to RHO's ace.
RHO returns a diamond, LHO pitches. Your go.
Once you've decided on your line, read on:
If you overtake the Q, RHO holds up as long as possible with Kxxx. If you play another club, he exits a diamond.
Good problem, Zenbiddist!
Where are the s?
LHO responded 1 rather than 1
Hence, RHO is likely to have at least 3 s
Perhaps the cards lie like this
Hit Next to follow suggested line
Win the 2nd with K.
Play AJT9 discarding 3 s.
If East wins the 4th round with K and
Exits with x,
Then win Q, discarding a from dummy
Now, lead a towards K.
If RHO has A (presumably singleton) then
You can hope that he also holds K
(So you lose at most 1 trick in each suit).
(4th attempt).

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#7 User is offline   The_Badger 

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Posted 2017-September-18, 15:06

I've deleted my original reply and given +1 to zenbiddist as it is intricate, and even Nige1 has changed his original post I see (4th attempt - I know how you are feeling, mate, I'm writing this at 3am having woken up in the middle of the night with this hand churning in what's left of my brain - lol!)

Be interesting to see what the final layout is of the hand, zen. Good problem.
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#8 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2017-September-19, 05:44

View Postnige1, on 2017-September-18, 12:49, said:

Good problem, Zenbiddist!
Where are the s?
LHO responded 1 rather than 1
Hence, RHO is likely to have at least 3 s
Perhaps the cards lie like this
Hit Next to follow suggested line
Win the 2nd with K.
Play AJT9 discarding 3 s.
If East wins the 4th round with K and
Exits with x,
Then win Q, discarding a from dummy
Now, lead a towards K.
If RHO has A (presumably singleton) then
You can hope that he also holds K
(So you lose at most 1 trick in each suit).
(4th attempt).



This is plausible. I agree with the shape and was looking at a similar line.

Does west bid 1 with that hand? I guess that depends on opponents' agreements, but it feels as if west should hold either the K or A for the advance? But maybe not with that 6-5 shape?
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#9 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2017-September-19, 05:46

View Postnige1, on 2017-September-18, 12:49, said:

Good problem, Zenbiddist!



I agree with this!
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#10 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2017-September-19, 07:32

View PostTramticket, on 2017-September-19, 05:44, said:

This is plausible. I agree with the shape and was looking at a similar line.
Does west bid 1 with that hand? I guess that depends on opponents' agreements, but it feels as if west should hold either the K or A for the advance? But maybe not with that 6-5 shape?

If LHO has A, then K is an entry to dummy. That seems to be your best hope (LHO has more s than RHO). If that chance fails, then you are likely to survive if RHO has K too.
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#11 User is offline   dokoko 

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Posted 2017-September-19, 22:32

View PostTramticket, on 2017-September-19, 05:44, said:

This is plausible. I agree with the shape and was looking at a similar line.

Does west bid 1 with that hand? I guess that depends on opponents' agreements, but it feels as if west should hold either the K or A for the advance? But maybe not with that 6-5 shape?

so you rather place him with 7-4?
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#12 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2017-September-19, 22:54

I can't see the big problem with this hand as long as the spade is onside. I would play off all 4 diamond winners, pitching 3 clubs from dummy, then overtake the club and continue clubs, pitching hearts. If someone hold off to the first three clubs, I abandon clubs and take the spade finesse. If they win a club early and return a club, I come down to A9, Jx and still take the spade finesse.

Am I missing something?
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#13 User is offline   ncohen 

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Posted 2017-September-19, 23:10

View PostTramticket, on 2017-September-19, 05:44, said:

This is plausible. I agree with the shape and was looking at a similar line.

Does west bid 1 with that hand? I guess that depends on opponents' agreements, but it feels as if west should hold either the K or A for the advance? But maybe not with that 6-5 shape?


I have trouble placing the EW cards. For one thing, I would tend not to lead a singleton in P's suit. With the example hand, I might lead a spade -- since P has at most 2 hearts, there's no future there even if NS have the Ax or Kx as stopper, but he could have a good spade holding. For another, I believe an overcall should show a good suit or a decent hand. I suppose E could have almost all of the high card points, but then W wouldn't have a bid.

I wouldn't worry about W having a weird hand. As W, with 5-6 in the majors, I'd just bid 2H, preemptive, or pass -- there might not be a future with a misfit in diamonds. Also, if you cash the diamonds to try to endplay E, he can usually just exit with a club. Then, you need the spade finesse (if you take a losing finesse, W can return a spade and you're probably down -- if you win in dummy, you're endplayed. If you overtake, you've probably set up S for EW.)

I was going for the simple line -- overtake in clubs at trick 3 and continue clubs. Then, if E returns a diamond, play for the heart A onside. It turns out this line still needs the spade K on if E has the club K. - if it's off, E can return a spade and there's the same problem as mentioned in the previous paragraph. So, cash the diamonds, discarding 3 clubs, and overtake in clubs.
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#14 User is offline   dokoko 

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Posted 2017-September-19, 23:12

I don't know whether it's good defense to duck two rounds of clubs.

If East does there seems to be a sure line:

Win trick 2, overtake Q and play two more rounds (discarding hearts), then run Q.
- If East has K you have nine tricks.
- If West wins this trick and returns a spade, win in dummy and play a club discarding heart from hand. You lose 1 trick in each suit.
- If West wins and returns a heart, run it to the jack (here you might have to guess East's singleton honor if any). As East cannot have more than one heart, you will again lose no more than 4 tricks.

I would possibly choose another line if I wasn't told that East would duck twice.
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#15 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2017-September-20, 02:09

View Postdokoko, on 2017-September-19, 22:32, said:

so you rather place him with 7-4?


Either 7-4 or 6-5 are possible I think.
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#16 User is offline   Tramticket 

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Posted 2017-September-20, 02:13

View PostWinstonm, on 2017-September-19, 22:54, said:

I can't see the big problem with this hand as long as the spade is onside. I would play off all 4 diamond winners, pitching 3 clubs from dummy, then overtake the club and continue clubs, pitching hearts. If someone hold off to the first three clubs, I abandon clubs and take the spade finesse. If they win a club early and return a club, I come down to A9, Jx and still take the spade finesse.

Am I missing something?


I agree - if we know East has the K we could play your line. If we knew that west has the A it would also be easy. But I am struggling to come up with a best line that combines these chances. I can't improve on Nige1's line.
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#17 User is offline   Winstonm 

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Posted 2017-September-20, 07:37

View PostTramticket, on 2017-September-20, 02:13, said:

I agree - if we know East has the K we could play your line. If we knew that west has the A it would also be easy. But I am struggling to come up with a best line that combines these chances. I can't improve on Nige1's line.


If the spade finesse loses, I don't think it matters what we do. LHO can always exit with a spade if we pitch to Ax, Jx or lead the Q to pin the J if we have pitched to Axx, J. (If the spade finesse is off the likelihood of RHO holding the heart A rises dramatically.)
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#18 User is offline   johnu 

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Posted 2017-September-20, 12:37

View PostWinstonm, on 2017-September-20, 07:37, said:

If the spade finesse loses, I don't think it matters what we do. LHO can always exit with a spade if we pitch to Ax, Jx or lead the Q to pin the J if we have pitched to Axx, J. (If the spade finesse is off the likelihood of RHO holding the heart A rises dramatically.)


I would run all the diamonds, and then play clubs. I don't want to be in my hand to lead hearts or spades. If East holds up 2 rounds (how can that be a winning play?), then I take the spade finesse. Otherwise, I expect East will really win the 2nd or 3rd club, and play a spade.

If the spade finesse loses, West will return a heart (if 6511). If you guess wrong, East will return a spade so unless the 10 drops, you will lose 5 tricks. Against best defense, I think you always need to guess hearts if the spade finesse loses.

If West returns a spade, declarer cashes any remaining clubs and plays a low heart. If East has singleton Q or A, they will have to return a spade to the ace for declarer's 9th trick. This will not be a success if East has a void or small heart.

Since 6511 hands are more common than 7411 hands, and East doesn't have much of an overcall with Axxxx and Kxxx, that's my play but there's no 100% play unless you are playing double dummy.
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#19 User is offline   nige1 

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Posted 2017-September-20, 19:05

View Postjohnu, on 2017-September-20, 12:37, said:

I would run all the diamonds, and then play clubs. I don't want to be in my hand to lead hearts or spades...

Johnu's line is fine. Failing only in the unlikely case when LHO has both K and AQ.
A quibble is that running s reduces defenders' scope for error and declarer's overtrick prospects.
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