[Cyberyeti]

kevinwm, on 2017-August-29, 13:20, said:

I just ran the numbers to confirm my instincts - the probability distribution for North's spade count is below. There's a 40% chance that North has a singleton or void, and a 77% chance that he has a doubleton or less. I like the odds on 5!d, and possibly even slam.

North spade count probability:
0: 9.2%
1: 31.4%
2: 36.7%
3: 18.3%
4: 4.0%
5: 0.4%
6: 0.01%

Also depends on what you think his suit looks like, he will have almost certainly one spade and one diamond loser, how do you fancy the odds opposite 7 to the KQ10 and a stiff spade ? not terrible, but not great.

[miamijd]

Personally, I wouldn't pass at IMPs. There is too much that has to go right for passing to the be the correct bid:

1. Partner has to have exactly two spades. If he has one spade, 5D is likely odds-on. If he has 3, you probably belong in 4S.

2. Partner can't have strength outside diamonds. Then you belong in 3NT.

3. If 1 and 2 are correct, then the opponents have to find a spade lead.

This sort of parlay is not a good bet. And if you lose the bet, you lose 10 IMPs (600 at the other table vs your 130), whereas if you win the bet, you only win 6 big (+130 vs -100 for a gain of 230 or 6 IMPs).

I think 3S is reasonable. If partner bids 4D, I'll try 5D (and by the way, that might inhibit a spade lead). If partner bids 3NT, implying some outside strength, I'm happy. If partner raises spades, I'll hope he has 3 or else that the spades break.

And no, the opponents aren't going to balance holding only about 15 HCP between them.

Cheers,
Mike

[RD350LC]

smerriman, on 2017-August-28, 15:51, said:

---

IMPs. It seems hard to count 9 tricks, but will you pass?

At matchpoints, I definitely would pass, but at IMPS, I likely would go 5♦.

[Cyberyeti]

miamijd, on 2017-August-29, 13:56, said:

Personally, I wouldn't pass at IMPs. There is too much that has to go right for passing to the be the correct bid:

1. Partner has to have exactly two spades. If he has one spade, 5D is likely odds-on. If he has 3, you probably belong in 4S.

2. Partner can't have strength outside diamonds. Then you belong in 3NT.

3. If 1 and 2 are correct, then the opponents have to find a spade lead.

This sort of parlay is not a good bet. And if you lose the bet, you lose 10 IMPs (600 at the other table vs your 130), whereas if you win the bet, you only win 6 big (+130 vs -100 for a gain of 230 or 6 IMPs).

I think 3S is reasonable. If partner bids 4D, I'll try 5D (and by the way, that might inhibit a spade lead). If partner bids 3NT, implying some outside strength, I'm happy. If partner raises spades, I'll hope he has 3 or else that the spades break.

And no, the opponents aren't going to balance holding only about 15 HCP between them.

Cheers,
Mike

Where are you getting 600 from, nobody appears to be vulnerable

[miamijd]

Cyberyeti, on 2017-August-29, 14:21, said:

Where are you getting 600 from, nobody appears to be vulnerable

Yes, you're right. It's not 10 and 6 (that would be both vul); it's more like 6 and 5. Not a lot of difference. Sorry about that.

My other points remain, however, so I don't think pass will be the winner in the long run.

Cheers,
Mike

[mike777]

3s.....

no problem yet...

passing seems silly

[dokoko]

My partner is more likely to have x,xxx,KJTxxx,xxx (where even 3d might go down) than x,xx,AQxxxxx,xxx (where game is at most 50%).

Even if partner guarantees 7 cards with 2 of 3 tops in diamonds and has the hoped for singleton spade, he needs ♦J along with his top honors (or ♦AK) to make game a good bet.

Partner bet on the hand being theirs and was wrong. No need to penalise him. If you reach a good game at the other table, congrats and 6 imps to you; I will get the points back on the hands where a more flexible preempting style is called for.

[dokoko]

miamijd, on 2017-August-29, 13:56, said:

1. Partner has to have exactly two spades. If he has one spade, 5D is likely odds-on. If he has 3, you probably belong in 4S.

I'd rather miss your "odds-on" 5♦ opposite ♠x, ♥xxx, ♦KQ9xxxx, ♣xx
or 4♠ opposite ♠863, ♥xx, ♦KQJxxxx, ♣x!

But maybe you want to blame partner for preempting when he was missing the ♦A.

[smerriman]

I was expecting a pretty clear consensus on pass, but it has turned out a bit less clear-cut than I had imagined! I've set up a poll on Bridgewinners for more thoughts: http://bridgewinners...m-2-mkk6er7hw1/

[smerriman]

The "final" results had 16 votes for 3NT, 14 votes for pass, and 6 votes for 3♠ - so quite a bit of difference of opinion here. Despite 3NT being my choice, I'm surprised it was voted so highly. I've seen MrAce say in the past the actual votes aren't as important as who voted for what - anyone recognise names well enough to know how any 'expert' votes were divided?