[vladesch]

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what would you bid?

[nullve]

3N

[The_Badger]

Balanced hand, two stoppers in the opponents pre-emptive suit, 16HCPs, there is absolutely, in my opinion, no other bid than 3NT.

Bidding 3♥ and possibly getting raised to 4♥ will usually result with the pre-emptor leading the ♦A (as his partner hasn't raised white/red so is likely to be short) the next ♦ being ruffed, and declarer on the back foot thereafter.

[rmnka447]

3 NT.

[vladesch]

I'm surprised.
My partner bid 3NT and I thought it was was too speculative.
I would have probably bid 3H myself.

I guess I'll have to modify my hand appraisal.

[Kaitlyn S]

 vladesch, on 2017-July-29, 05:01, said:

I'm surprised.
My partner bid 3NT and I thought it was was too speculative.
I would have probably bid 3H myself.

I guess I'll have to modify my hand appraisal.

Perhaps you thought 3NT too speculative because you had about a three-count?

Preempts make you guess. If you wait until you have the values to make your contract opposite three or four points, you are going to get stolen blind.

If you think about the points that you don't have and preemptor doesn't have (let's give him 6), that leaves 18 for the other two players and assuming partner has about a 9-count isn't unreasonable. Given that partner is very unlikely to be able to bid notrump because of a lack of a diamond stopper, and that 3NT is likely to be your best game (your diamonds do as well in 3NT as in 4H and ruffing isn't likely to come into play), you should bid it.

What is 3H likely to accomplish? It's fine if partner is weak and has hearts. It works if partner has a decent hand and can miraculously trump a spade for an extra trick. It works on the hands where it goes off a couple tricks but 3NT gets doubled and finds partner with garbage. Most of the time, 3NT will work better.

I don't think your "hand appraisal" is the problem. I'm sure you knew this was a decent hand. What needs modification is your sense of risk versus reward.

[nige1]

 vladesch, on 2017-July-28, 11:03, said:

what would you bid?

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I rank

• 3N = NAT. Consensus.
• 3♥ = NAT. But there's danger of ♦ ruffs in suit contracts.
• X = T/O. But a 5-2 ♥ fit might play better than a 4-3 ♠ or 4-2 ♣ fit.
• Pass = NAT. Take the money. But it's a bidder's game.

[neilkaz]

 rmnka447, on 2017-July-28, 18:48, said:

3 NT.

I don't have to like it, but I also bid 3NT and esp. at IMPs