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Defend this 3 NT

#1 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2016-December-04, 07:30



EW expert opponents.
Team match K/O.
Lead =J

Declarer (W) wins the spade J with Q and plays Q, pd following with 7 (udca).

Your turn.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"

"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





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#2 User is offline   manudude03 

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Posted 2016-December-04, 07:58

It looks as if partner only has maybe 1 more HCP. The only chance I see is if partner has J9x in hearts. I'll win and play the Q followed by a small one if it holds hoping declarer plays me for QJxx.
Wayne Somerville
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#3 User is offline   wanoff 

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Posted 2016-December-04, 08:06

A

Why didn't declarer safety play s ?
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#4 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2016-December-04, 08:27

Can declarer have

AQ
KJxx
Qxx
AKxx

?
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"

"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





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#5 User is offline   manudude03 

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Posted 2016-December-04, 08:29

You didn't say the range for 2NT so I assumed 20-21 and that is one ugly 19 count.
Wayne Somerville
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#6 User is offline   awm 

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Posted 2016-December-04, 08:39

I'm pretty sure declarer can have:

AQ
KJ9
Q9xxx
AKx

Not totally clear whether this is more likely than the examples where declarer misses heart J9 and guesses poorly.
Adam W. Meyerson
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#7 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2016-December-04, 08:39

 manudude03, on 2016-December-04, 08:29, said:

You didn't say the range for 2NT so I assumed 20-21 and that is one ugly 19 count.


You can make up the hand with many 9s to look pretty.
And this is actually the only hand type that you have a legit way to defeat without needing declarer to make a choice.
But your answer is correct.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"

"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





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#8 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2016-December-04, 08:39

dbl post
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"

"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





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#9 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2016-December-04, 08:45

 awm, on 2016-December-04, 08:39, said:

I'm pretty sure declarer can have:

AQ
KJ9
Q9xxx
AKx

Not totally clear whether this is more likely than the examples where declarer misses heart J9 and guesses poorly.


Guessing poorly and misguessing are two different things. But yes, as I said Q is not the only logical solution.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"

"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





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#10 User is offline   Kaitlyn S 

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Posted 2016-December-04, 10:24

 awm, on 2016-December-04, 08:39, said:

I'm pretty sure declarer can have:

AQ
KJ9
Q9xxx
AKx
I switched to the Q. Sadly, this scenario didn't occur to me.
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#11 User is offline   phil_20686 

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Posted 2016-December-14, 16:20

 manudude03, on 2016-December-04, 07:58, said:

It looks as if partner only has maybe 1 more HCP. The only chance I see is if partner has J9x in hearts. I'll win and play the Q followed by a small one if it holds hoping declarer plays me for QJxx.


This feels like an unecessarily precise construction no? I mean, partner is reasonably likely to just have 5 spades?





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#12 User is offline   phil_20686 

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Posted 2016-December-14, 16:23

 awm, on 2016-December-04, 08:39, said:

I'm pretty sure declarer can have:

AQ
KJ9
Q9xxx
AKx

Not totally clear whether this is more likely than the examples where declarer misses heart J9 and guesses poorly.


It would be good to know if partner tends to lead low from JTxxx from a weak hand. I would not lead the J if I had length usually so I might well play for manudude's construction, but not sure what would be standard practice to lead from a 1 count here.
The physics is theoretical, but the fun is real. - Sheldon Cooper
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#13 User is offline   cherdano 

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Posted 2016-December-15, 05:15

 phil_20686, on 2016-December-14, 16:23, said:

It would be good to know if partner tends to lead low from JTxxx from a weak hand. I would not lead the J if I had length usually so I might well play for manudude's construction, but not sure what would be standard practice to lead from a 1 count here.

It's JT9xx - I think leading the J is normal. (Not saying it is right, just what most would do.)
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#14 User is offline   Fluffy 

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Posted 2016-December-16, 04:10

Is upgrading 19 counts that common on that side of the ocean?, upgrading to 1NT is one thing, as it is a massive winner as an opening, but 2NT "slam killer" opening is one of the worst from the natural system in my opinion (does someone have actual data?). It is one of the reasons I wanted to try strong club.
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#15 User is offline   MrAce 

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Posted 2016-December-16, 04:50

 Fluffy, on 2016-December-16, 04:10, said:

Is upgrading 19 counts that common on that side of the ocean?, upgrading to 1NT is one thing, as it is a massive winner as an opening, but 2NT "slam killer" opening is one of the worst from the natural system in my opinion (does someone have actual data?). It is one of the reasons I wanted to try strong club.


Where this hand was played, upgrading 19 is very common. It was not played in USA though.
"Genius has its own limitations, however stupidity has no such boundaries!"
"It's only when a mosquito lands on your testicles that you realize there is always a way to solve problems without using violence!"

"Well to be perfectly honest, in my humble opinion, of course without offending anyone who thinks differently from my point of view, but also by looking into this matter in a different perspective and without being condemning of one's view's and by trying to make it objectified, and by considering each and every one's valid opinion, I honestly believe that I completely forgot what I was going to say."





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#16 User is offline   PhantomSac 

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Posted 2016-December-16, 12:38

I think the HQ is a better shot than them winning the SQ with AQ doubleton + a random upgrade (probably depends on 2N bidder). This is largely due to me thinking that they will misguess hearts a large amount of the time when I do hit the heart holding I want, esp if I don't tank forever before playing the HQ since it is very natural to try it with QJ9x(x) of hearts, and with our actual hand we might well play spades (especially if we didn't have the CJ).
The artist formerly known as jlall
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