[Phil]

Play 6N:

Void
Kq98x
J7XX
A7XX


AKx
AJx
AQ9
QJ6X

Auction was 2N 3D 3H 4N 6N

Lead sQ.

[Kaitlyn S]

Phil, on 2016-September-29, 08:13, said:

Play 6N:

Void
Kq98x
J7XX
A7XX


AKx
AJx
AQ9
QJ6X

Auction was 2N 3D 3H 4N 6N

Lead sQ.

On many of these hands, nobody answers until I misplay it, so let's get the ball rolling.

Spoiler

I discard a club, play HA, HJ overtaken by HQ if West follows, and lead to the DQ. Assuming it wins, I'm home free if clubs are 3-2 or East has the CK. I lead a club to the ace, and a club back to hand. Assume East has king-fourth and doesn't win. I run hearts, discarding the D9 and the Sx and lead a club and claim 12 tricks.

If West wins the DK, I need 2S, 5H, 3D, 2C, although some esoteric squeeze might give me 2S, 5H, 2D, 2C, and a twelfth trick if someone guards diamonds and clubs. Say West returns another spade. I have to discard on this and it pretty much has to be the club since I'm not giving up on 3-3 diamonds although I might give up the D10 doubleton as we will see.

Given that West needs the CK, I think CK doubleton is more likely than D10 doubleton so I lead the CQ now. If covered, I can play a diamond to the DA to cater to D10 doubleton, if not, I'll run hearts hoping that diamonds are 3-3 or someone controls both minors.

Now say the CQ wins. I have to try for doubleton king, so club to ace, leaving me with:

H-K98
D-J7x

S-x
H-x
D-A9
C-Jx

Now I'll run the hearts and hope that diamonds are 3-3 or that someone has the CK and four diamonds.

If I needed the spade as a threat, I will concede that this problem is too difficult for me (and that maybe I don't have a place in the Expert Forum )

Oh yes. Maybe when I play the second heart, West shows out, costing me one dummy entry. I take my five hearts (discarding S, C) and lead a diamond to the queen. If it wins, I hope for 3-2 clubs. If it loses, I win the spade (throwing a club from dummy) and lead the CQ as before.

[nige1]

I see Kaitlyn and I came up with essentially similar suggestions but I'll leave my reply because it includes a hand diagram.
Discard a ♣ from dummy and wiin with ♠A.
♥AJ overtaking if LHO follows. Finesse ♦Q.
- If ♦Q wins, cross to dummy's ♣A and lead a ♣
- - If RHO follows then claim (2 x ♠s, 5 x ♥s, 2 x ♦s, 3 x ♣s ).
- - If RHO shows out on the 2nd ♣ then cash winners and
- - - guess ♦s. with no clues, leading ♦J hoping to pin ♦T
- - - (Making 2 x ♠s, 5 x ♥s, 3 x ♦s, 2 x ♣s ).
- If ♦Q finesse loses, LHO returns a ♠ squeezing dummy.
- - Best to chuck a ♣, giving up the chance of doubleton ♣T9.
- - Run ♣Q, cash ♣A, Run ♥ hoping ♦s split or
- - A minor suit (show-up) squeeze.
- - - (Making 2 x ♠s, 5 x ♥s, 3 x ♦s, 2 x ♣s ).

---

[Phil]

My own analysis is that these answers are good, but there is a slightly better line that gets you home when West has four clubs.

[nige1]

Phil, on 2016-September-29, 11:20, said:

My own analysis is that these answers are good, but there is a slightly better line that gets you home when West has four clubs.

I think I understand Phil's point:
After a winning ♦Q finesse, Lead ♣Q from hand. If LHO covers, you can finesse ♣7 on the way back, when RHO follows. This wins 3 tricks when

• ♣s split 3-2 or
• LHO has singleton ♣K, ♣T, or ♣9 or
• RHO has singleton ♣T or ♣9

and 4 tricks when RHO has doubleton ♣T9

[alok c]

nige1, on 2016-September-29, 11:32, said:

I think I understand Phil's point:
Lead ♣Q from hand. If LHO covers, you can finesse ♣7 on the way back, when RHO follows. This wins 3 or tricks when

• ♣s split 3-2 or
• LHO has singleton ♣K, ♣T, or ♣9 or
• RHO has singleton ♣T or ♣9

and 4 tricks when RHO has doubleton ♣T9

As ♣8 is also with opponents,only chance is to take a deep finesse in ♦ to cater to West's 4card ♣holding.It only loses when singleton or doubleton D10 is offside.

[nige1]

alok c, on 2016-September-29, 13:08, said:

As ♣8 is also with opponents,only chance is to take a deep finesse in ♦ to cater to West's 4card ♣holding.It only loses when singleton or doubleton D10 is offside.

Thank you AlokC
I made a mistake copying the diagram .
Corrected here (I hope).
If ♦Q wins but LHO has 4 ♣s, I'd lead ♦J hoping to pin ♦T.

But I suspect that Phil has a more cunning solution

---

[Fluffy]

Leading ♦J increases your chances of 3 diamond tricks without a loser (specially when West has 4 clubs), but it reduces your chances of 3 tricks with a loser, I don't think it improves much.

[Phil]

Thanks for weighing in Nigel. Let's say we start.

1. Win. Pitch club.
2-3 AJ hearts, overtaking.
4. Hook diamond, winning
5. CA, club to hand and RHO blows.

Our count is 2S 5H 2D 2C. Unless the diamond K drops we are DOA.

How about dJ at T4? If it loses, we need the club hook, and can try for 33 diamonds and a squeeze.

If the diamond Jack gets covered, we can still fall back on the other 2nd D hook if clubs go 4-1 on left.

Edit - cross posted w our world semi finalist....

[Kaitlyn S]

It's clear that DJ is better if the DK is onside.

I led a diamond to the queen because the DJ is still there as an entry in the endgame if the DK is offside.

Let's do a simple comparison.

The DJ lead picks up when East has the D-K10 and West has four clubs (not bad, since when West does have four clubs, East is more likely to hold the D10.)

If I lead the DJ and lose the finesse, aren't my squeeze chances botched? Spade comes back and I must ditch a club in order to keep 3-3 diamond alive. I lead CQ, when covered, my only entry to the 13th diamond is hearts so I unblock diamonds, and run hearts. Squeeze still works here. So say West doesn't cover. I can play the top diamonds but lose an entry to the CJ so it appears that I have to play for a criss cross squeeze and could very well go down if diamonds were 3-3 all along. Unless I'm doing something seriously wrong, I have to guess the ending and am either giving up the 3-3 diamonds or the squeeze.

I think this also costs me the opportunity to try for a doubleton king of clubs and the squeeze. For if I lead the CQ and it floats, and I lead a club to the ace, I need to take the DAQ now for the heart is the only entry to the last diamond if diamonds are 3-3. I must keep a diamond entry in hand in case the CK is doubleton. Granted, the criss cross squeeze is going to work if the CK is doubleton, as long as I cash the CA in the endgame. I have to give up on something - I'm not sure what the best thing to give up is but it sure seems like it's more likely than four clubs in West and D-K10 in East.

Am I seeing this wrong? It seems to me that the DJ is too valuable an entry to waste when the DK is with West.

[nige1]

Wow. Great stuff!

Reasonably, Kaitlyn and Fluffy have slight reservations about leading ♦J at trick 3.

On balance, however, I feel that Phil is right that an early ♦J is your best shot. If LHO fails to cover ♣K he will almost always have 3 ♣s, so, reducing the chances of a minor suit criss-cross squeeze. In any case, when choosing between a 3-3 break and a squeeze, expert declarers like Phil and Fluffy have an uncanny knack for sussing out defender's distribution

[Kaitlyn S]

nige1, on 2016-September-29, 16:13, said:

In any case, when choosing between a 3-3 break and a squeeze, expert declarers like Phil and Fluffy often suss out defender's distribution

Ah, there's the rub. Non-expert Kaitlyn is going to get it wrong half the time, so a low diamond to the queen is a good play for her. Maybe when she plays like Phil and Fluffy, she'll lead the DJ (if it occurs to her!) The most surprising thing to me is that I'm still able to be in this conversation with some clearly superior declarers, and haven't yet been proven wrong about having to give up one of my chances.

[Phil]

Kaitlyn S, on 2016-September-29, 16:22, said:

Ah, there's the rub. Non-expert Kaitlyn is going to get it wrong half the time, so a low diamond to the queen is a good play for her. Maybe when she plays like Phil and Fluffy, she'll lead the DJ (if it occurs to her!)

Haha I think youve written some good stuff here. I gave the hand to a well known GLM and he insta played hAJ d to Q, so you have some good company.

[Fluffy]

Kaitlyn S, on 2016-September-29, 16:22, said:

Ah, there's the rub. Non-expert Kaitlyn is going to get it wrong half the time, so a low diamond to the queen is a good play for her. Maybe when she plays like Phil and Fluffy, she'll lead the DJ (if it occurs to her!) The most surprising thing to me is that I'm still able to be in this conversation with some clearly superior declarers, and haven't yet been proven wrong about having to give up one of my chances.

If you played in my local club for a while leading the jack would always be the first thing you'd think

I don't think anyone has claimed you are non-expert, and I am still looking for Phil to explain why leading ♦J is better, my gut feeling is that it is not since it requires 2 things to work instead of just 1 (clubs 4-1 behind with K10 diamonds onside vs ♦10x somewhere)

[MrAce]

Fluffy, on 2016-September-30, 02:04, said:

I don't think anyone has claimed you are non-expert, and I am still looking for Phil to explain why leading ♦J is better, my gut feeling is that it is not since it requires 2 things to work instead of just 1 (clubs 4-1 behind with K10 diamonds onside vs ♦10x somewhere)

When ♦K is on starting J has obvious advantage. When it is off it has obvious disadvantage. Gonzalo is right that there may not be such a significant difference.

If you guys want to compare the success rate of J vs small to Q in 6 NT (excluding squeeze odds) you need to decide what each choice decides to do AFTER the finesse worked/did not work.
Critical cards are ♦K-T-8


A-♦K is on

• When the ♦K is on, both lines need 3-2 ♣ or Kxxx ♣ with East.
• When W has Kxxx ♣ both lines need to make 2 more ♦ tricks WITHOUT losing any ♦ trick. (Trying clubs already gave them 1 trick)
• Small to Q starters will then have to choose whether they should cash the A and play for Kx onside or play for Tx offside. (I will name them as Q1 and Q2)
• Starting with J, of course will be covered, and will have same decision whether to finesse or cash the A. They started J because they want to finesse the T if things go south.

B-♦K is off

• When it is off, both lines need ♣K to be on
• If the ♣K is on, both lines need to score the remaining ♦ tricks
• Small to Q starters will either cash A or finesse the T
• Starting with J leaves no choice but to hope for 3-3 and some small splits such as T8 doubleton onside.

A Combinations: (do not forget we already lost a trick to club when we try that suit, and starting J is covered by K, Q1 is to play small to Q and then play for Kx onside, Q2 is to play small to Q and then play for Tx offside)

T8xxx-K (starting J loses, Q1-Q2 wins) 1.21%
T8xx-Kx (starting J loses, Q1 wins, Q2 loses) 4.84%
T84-Kxx (all lines lose)
T8-Kxxx (starting J loses because will finesse the T on 2nd round, Q1 loses,Q2 wins)1.61%
Txxx-K8 (starting J loses, Q1 wins,Q2 loses) 1.61%
Txx-K8x (all lines lose)
Tx-K8xx (starting J loses because will finesse T on 2nd round, Q1 loses, Q2 wins) 4.84%
T-K8xxx( all lines win)
8xxx-KT (all lines win
8xx-KTx (starting J wins, Q1 loses, Q2 loses) 5.33%
8x-KTxx (starting J wins, Q1 loses, Q2 loses) 4.84%
8-KTxxx (starting J wins, Q1 loses,Q2 loses) 1.21%
xxx-KT8 (starting J wins, Q1-Q2 loses) 1.78%
xx-KT8x (starting J wins, Q1-Q2 loses) 4.84%
x-KT8xx (starting J wins, Q1-Q2 loses) 3.63 %
Void-KT8xxx(starting J wins, Q1-Q2 loses) 0.75 %

SCORE
Q1=7.66
Q2=7.66
Start J =22.38

B Combinations (♣K has to be on, we already lost our J or Q to the K) Q1= starts small to Q, loses to K and then finesses to T Q2=starts small to Q, loses to K and then cashes A

KT8xxx-Void (starting J definitely loses, small to Q when sees void can go up with A and play small towards J, W has to duck which gives a shot on shifting to clubs) 0.75%
KT8xx-x ( all lose)
KT8x-xx (all lose)
KT8-xxx( J wins, Q1 loses, Q2 wins) 1.78%
KTxxx-8 (J loses, Q1-Q2 wins) 1.21%
KTxx-8x (J loses, Q1 loses, Q2 wins if guesses to finesse the T ***, ) 4.84%
KTx-8xx (J wins, Q1 loses, Q2 wins) 5.33%
KT-8xxx ( J loses, Q1 loses, Q2 wins) 1.61 %
K8xxx-T (J loses, Q1-Q2 wins) 1.21%
K8xx-Tx (J loses, Q1-Q2 wins) 4.84%
K8x-Txx ( all win)
K8-Txxx (J loses, Q1 wins, Q2 loses) 1.61%
Kxxx-T8 (all win)
Kxx-T8x (all win)
Kx-T8xx (J loses, Q1 wins, Q2 loses) 4.84%
K-T8xxx (J loses, Q1 wins, Q2 loses) 1.21%

J =7.11
Q1=15.67
Q2=21.57

Overall score

J= 7.11+22.38=29.49
Q1=7.66+15.67= 23.33
Q2=7.66+21.57= 29.23

Phil, on 2016-September-29, 16:34, said:

Haha I think youve written some good stuff here. I gave the hand to a well known GLM and he insta played hAJ d to Q, so you have some good company.

Maybe he knew that it did not really matter,

[miamijd]

Phil, on 2016-September-29, 08:13, said:

Play 6N:

Void
Kq98x
J7XX
A7XX


AKx
AJx
AQ9
QJ6X

Auction was 2N 3D 3H 4N 6N

Lead sQ.

I think the preceding posters have covered the play, but what strikes me about this hand is the auction. Why 4N? North doesn't have enough power for a NT slam; he needs to find a suit fit. How about a pedestrian 4C over 3H, after which you'll reach a 6C contract that is much better.

[Caitlynne]

I am wondering why I am playing 6NT when 6C is a very fine contract that should have been reached. What was that 4NT bid anyway?

Regardless, you have 7 major suit tricks and need 5 from the minors. Clubs cannot produce 3 tricks without the loss of 1 trick, so you are going to have to play on diamonds and learn how many diamond tricks you can take without losing the lead.

So, win the first spade pitching a club from dummy, and play the Ace of hearts, Jack of hearts, and a third round of hearts to dummy. Now play a diamond, finessing for the King against RHO by playing the Queen.

If this holds, return to dummy with tha Ace of clubs, cash two high hearts, pitching a spade and diamond. and now play a club toward your QJx, attempting to win 3 club tricks.

If the Queen of diamonds loses to the King, you plan to rely on the club finesse. Presumably LHO continues spades. You win pitching another club from dummy and now the Jack of clubs and take the finesse. If this loses, oh well, down a bunch.

If it wins, play a club to the Ace. If the King comes down, you're home, so assume it doesn't. Now run the hearts pitching a club and a spade. You now hope for a 3-3 diamond break or a minor suit squeeze to be operating on the run of the hearts.

Next time, bid intelligently and get to your club slam.

[Kaitlyn S]

Caitlynne, on 2016-September-30, 15:02, said:

Next time, bid intelligently and get to your club slam.

I don't know how to get to 6C by South. If East leads a diamond, 6C by North has no play if West has the DK. Phil wanted to cater to 4-1 clubs in West; which puts 6C in deep trouble.

The diamond lead isn't as long a shot as you think. Your good auction might start something like 2NT P 3D P 3H P 4C P 4D Double. At this point you are just toast in 6C and are going to have to revert to 6H or 6NT to have a chance. I'll bet nobody leads the DJ from dummy in 6NT after West doubled a 4D cue bid!

There is also the fact that many good auctions that get to 6C will point out the possibility of a heart ruff to the defenders; for example if East has 4 hearts and the doubleton CK, and the defenders have shown 8 hearts, most of the players that would be playing against Phil could figure out that a heart lead had a good chance of beating this.

6C could have handling problems even when East has 4 clubs. South has two diamonds and a spade to deal with, and while you have the tricks, the timing seems really tricky since North likely needs all five heart tricks without the opponents trumping with a non-winner.

[MrAce]

Caitlynne, on 2016-September-30, 15:02, said:

I am wondering why I am playing 6NT when 6C is a very fine contract that should have been reached. What was that 4NT bid anyway?

Regardless, you have 7 major suit tricks and need 5 from the minors. Clubs cannot produce 3 tricks without the loss of 1 trick, so you are going to have to play on diamonds and learn how many diamond tricks you can take without losing the lead.

So, win the first spade pitching a club from dummy, and play the Ace of hearts, Jack of hearts, and a third round of hearts to dummy. Now play a diamond, finessing for the King against RHO by playing the Queen.

If this holds, return to dummy with tha Ace of clubs, cash two high hearts, pitching a spade and diamond. and now play a club toward your QJx, attempting to win 3 club tricks.

If the Queen of diamonds loses to the King, you plan to rely on the club finesse. Presumably LHO continues spades. You win pitching another club from dummy and now the Jack of clubs and take the finesse. If this loses, oh well, down a bunch.

If it wins, play a club to the Ace. If the King comes down, you're home, so assume it doesn't. Now run the hearts pitching a club and a spade. You now hope for a 3-3 diamond break or a minor suit squeeze to be operating on the run of the hearts.

Next time, bid intelligently and get to your club slam.

If you are going to make a comment, at least take a moment before you start shooting.

• This is not one of the popular topics where everyone has zillions of ideas, including my dog, how to bid and find the best contract by looking at least 2 hands if not 4 hands. Please don't try to turn this into one of them.
• 6 ♣ being better than 6 NT is debatable unless you invent an auction where south intelligently declares 6♣, North will have issues on ♦ lead.
• Next time read intelligently and do not offer a solution that has already been suggested and debated. Or if you already read, do not copy someone else's reply.

[Phil]

6C is excellent.

4N isn't that crazy since if partner accepts slam he can bid 5N or 6m along the way.

4C makes it practically impossible to find a slam in diamonds.