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MI, UI and Unauthorised Panic

#21 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2016-September-14, 09:41

View Postlamford, on 2016-September-14, 09:37, said:

All that evidence indicates is that it is not pre-emptive (or he would have pre-empted) and not a weak two (or he would have opened a weak two) and not an opening bid (or he would have opened the bidding). It must therefore be FIT.

"when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth" - Holmes


May have been playing strong 2s also.
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#22 User is offline   mr1303 

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Posted 2016-September-14, 10:09

Yes, my point was not well phrased, but we don't know that East can't hold KQJxxx. I was trying to come up with hands that might bid 3H opposite a natural 2C overcall. Unless we have a reason to think we play fit jumps, the only hands I can think of are good pre-empts with long hearts, possible if weak 2s are not being played etc.
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#23 User is offline   StevenG 

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Posted 2016-September-14, 10:13

View Postlamford, on 2016-September-14, 09:37, said:

All that evidence indicates is that it is not pre-emptive (or he would have pre-empted) and not a weak two (or he would have opened a weak two) and not an opening bid (or he would have opened the bidding). It must therefore be FIT.

"when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth" - Holmes

I have never come across anyone in the UK of the supposed standard who plays (or has even heard of) FIT. Maybe this pair do, but you cannot just assume it without investigation. Once again, it, seems, you have decided on a ruling and are now having to jump through hoops to justify it.
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#24 User is offline   weejonnie 

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Posted 2016-September-14, 11:28

View Postlamford, on 2016-September-14, 09:37, said:

All that evidence indicates is that it is not pre-emptive (or he would have pre-empted) and not a weak two (or he would have opened a weak two) and not an opening bid (or he would have opened the bidding). It must therefore be FIT.

"when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth" - Holmes

However the bid per se to the pair is impossible - you are making the classic error of imposing your own (vastly superior) bridge knowledge and theory upon the pair.

Which is why we poll players of the same ability and not experts.
No matter how well you know the laws, there is always something that you'll forget. That is why we have a book.
Get the facts. No matter what people say, get the facts from both sides BEFORE you make a ruling or leave the table.
Remember - just because a TD is called for one possible infraction, it does not mean that there are no others.
In a judgement case - always refer to other TDs and discuss the situation until they agree your decision is correct.
The hardest rulings are inevitably as a result of failure of being called at the correct time. ALWAYS penalize both sides if this happens.
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#25 User is offline   weejonnie 

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Posted 2016-September-14, 11:29

View PostCyberyeti, on 2016-September-14, 09:41, said:

May have been playing strong 2s also.

Benji (as to most in the club)
No matter how well you know the laws, there is always something that you'll forget. That is why we have a book.
Get the facts. No matter what people say, get the facts from both sides BEFORE you make a ruling or leave the table.
Remember - just because a TD is called for one possible infraction, it does not mean that there are no others.
In a judgement case - always refer to other TDs and discuss the situation until they agree your decision is correct.
The hardest rulings are inevitably as a result of failure of being called at the correct time. ALWAYS penalize both sides if this happens.
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#26 User is offline   mycroft 

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Posted 2016-September-14, 11:35

Let's poll people and see what happens after p-1NT-2-p; 3-p. Yes, we have been polling here, I guess.

For my answer to the poll, pass is not an option. 3NT is - we need Hx in clubs and sufficient hearts on board to survive two leads. Will partner have that? Well, he didn't open, so he's limited to a bad 11 or so. He didn't preempt in hearts; so let's find out what the preempt style is like. Is KQJxx a 2 opener in anything but a flat hand? Is QJTxxxx and out, and a club void or stiff, 3 first at all white?

If we still believe that 3NT is a LA (hey, it might make, that KQJxx Kx and a flat hand) then the question is "do we sit when North says it's not making?" I am not as sanguine about that - I have 13, South has 12, East has a max pass of some sort, and North is hitting this? Sure you trust your partner, but you already need a magic hand from him. I would pull at this point. 4X-3.

In the real auction, I am suspicious of the pass of 4. No UI was mentioned, but how could this possibly be passable without some way of knowing partner forgot, or partnership experience that partner forgets? This is suspiciously like 1NT-2 "transfer"; 2-3; p. I will investigate. If I find nothing, I'm still going to be suspicious, and it goes into my file of "lucky guesses" for next time. But I bet that there *is* something, even if I can't prove it. This feels a lot like Flight B "well, it's obvious she forgot" (mostly because she wouldn't think to bid 4 with KQx AKJxx x Axxx - how can we have slam on when they opened?)

I'm concerned that I can't rule that 4X is going to be passed, and will likely assign some fraction of 4X-4 (or 5X-4). But, of course, the player at the table figured out to pass 4 here, and is only more likely to in the auction I posit.
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#27 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2016-September-14, 15:10

View Postmycroft, on 2016-September-14, 11:35, said:

Let's poll people and see what happens after p-1NT-2-p; 3-p. Yes, we have been polling here, I guess.

For my answer to the poll, pass is not an option. 3NT is - we need Hx in clubs and sufficient hearts on board to survive two leads. Will partner have that? Well, he didn't open, so he's limited to a bad 11 or so. He didn't preempt in hearts; so let's find out what the preempt style is like. Is KQJxx a 2 opener in anything but a flat hand? Is QJTxxxx and out, and a club void or stiff, 3 first at all white?

If we still believe that 3NT is a LA (hey, it might make, that KQJxx Kx and a flat hand) then the question is "do we sit when North says it's not making?" I am not as sanguine about that - I have 13, South has 12, East has a max pass of some sort, and North is hitting this? Sure you trust your partner, but you already need a magic hand from him. I would pull at this point. 4X-3.



Nope, try it on a spade lead, any hand without A will have 3 spades a club and a heart to lose even if the clubs behave.

Quote

In the real auction, I am suspicious of the pass of 4. No UI was mentioned, but how could this possibly be passable without some way of knowing partner forgot, or partnership experience that partner forgets? This is suspiciously like 1NT-2 "transfer"; 2-3; p. I will investigate. If I find nothing, I'm still going to be suspicious, and it goes into my file of "lucky guesses" for next time. But I bet that there *is* something, even if I can't prove it. This feels a lot like Flight B "well, it's obvious she forgot" (mostly because she wouldn't think to bid 4 with KQx AKJxx x Axxx - how can we have slam on when they opened?)

I'm concerned that I can't rule that 4X is going to be passed, and will likely assign some fraction of 4X-4 (or 5X-4). But, of course, the player at the table figured out to pass 4 here, and is only more likely to in the auction I posit.


This is an interesting point. Did 2 initially guarantee 5 hearts ? If it did, a double of 4 makes no sense as the doubler can have no more than 3 hearts and not many points, so something has gone wrong.
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#28 User is offline   mycroft 

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Posted 2016-September-14, 16:37

Okay, so there basically isn't a hand where 3NT is right if they find the right major lead. That doesn't mean that it's not the right call, or at least not wrong enough to be not an LA. They have to find the right major to lead, after all, and they have no clues to what's right.

But that only makes my "If North tells me I'm not making this, he's right" that much stronger. I will give 3NT-large, but not much percentage at all of 3NTx-large. Not unless my polling tells me my judgement's wrong.
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#29 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2016-September-14, 17:08

View Postmycroft, on 2016-September-14, 16:37, said:

Okay, so there basically isn't a hand where 3NT is right if they find the right major lead. That doesn't mean that it's not the right call, or at least not wrong enough to be not an LA. They have to find the right major to lead, after all, and they have no clues to what's right.

But that only makes my "If North tells me I'm not making this, he's right" that much stronger. I will give 3NT-large, but not much percentage at all of 3NTx-large. Not unless my polling tells me my judgement's wrong.


Well there is such a hand, it's just not that likely, xxx, A109xx, x, Axxx is pretty damn near cold since the spades are very likely but not certain to be 4-4. Hearts are most likely to be led only if it's right to do so, but there's always the possibility of a diamond lead.
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#30 User is offline   blackshoe 

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Posted 2016-September-14, 22:00

I didn't read the whole thread, but I did see a lot of speculation about methods. If we need to know these players' methods, we should ask them for a description.
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#31 User is offline   weejonnie 

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Posted 2016-September-15, 01:48

View Postblackshoe, on 2016-September-14, 22:00, said:

I didn't read the whole thread, but I did see a lot of speculation about methods. If we need to know these players' methods, we should ask them for a description.

Easy enough - Benji Acol (4 card majors) with weak 2s in the majors, weak no trump, PinPoint Astro defence to NT with the 3 Heart response being invitational. Don't think anything else would be necessary. (Players are slightly aggressive, but not suicidally so)
No matter how well you know the laws, there is always something that you'll forget. That is why we have a book.
Get the facts. No matter what people say, get the facts from both sides BEFORE you make a ruling or leave the table.
Remember - just because a TD is called for one possible infraction, it does not mean that there are no others.
In a judgement case - always refer to other TDs and discuss the situation until they agree your decision is correct.
The hardest rulings are inevitably as a result of failure of being called at the correct time. ALWAYS penalize both sides if this happens.
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#32 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2016-September-15, 03:54

View Postweejonnie, on 2016-September-15, 01:48, said:

Easy enough - Benji Acol (4 card majors) with weak 2s in the majors, weak no trump, PinPoint Astro defence to NT with the 3 Heart response being invitational. Don't think anything else would be necessary. (Players are slightly aggressive, but not suicidally so)

Have they ever, for example, discussed passed-hand jumps? I polled three players comfortably in the bottom half of a North London club for the auction Pass-Pass-1C-Pass-2H. Two of them said, "Natural and game-forcing". When I pointed out they had already passed, they changed to "maximum pass with hearts". No mention of the word "FIT" as many predicted. The third person said "I think that is the same as an opening 2H which is weak". When I said, "But you didn't open 2H", he said, "Then I don't know, I don't think we make that bid". I think the players in this thread are better than those three.

However tough, the TD does have to assign a meaning to 3H in the given auction, assuming 2C is natural. This he can only do by asking the two players. IF they reply "it is impossible", then it might show a wheel has come off. Something like 1NT-2NT-(transfer to diamonds)-3NT does usually show that partner has forgotten. I play that is a 5-card raise to 4D and invites saving if they now back in with 4M, while 4D tells partner not to save over 4M, but I suspect few pairs have discussed this, and it would show partner has forgotten. A passed hand bidding 3H does not have that "level" of impossibility, however.

I did a simulation, assuming partner has 5 hearts, 3-4 clubs and 9-10 HCPs. The results were interesting:

T 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
C 0 0 2 20 51 23 4
NT 9 13 38 39 1 0 0

The SIM (top line are tricks, second line % in clubs, third % in NT) shows that 3NT will make about 40% of the time. 4C or more will make 75% of the time, and should be chosen at matchpoints. East's pass of it, however, is fielding a systemic misbid and may have been based on West's manner which showed he misbid and is not making a slam-try with a big rounded two-suiter. I presume there is nothing, from East's point of view which stops West having x AKQxxx x KQJxx? I would tend to adjust to 4Hx-5 instead therefore.
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#33 User is offline   barmar 

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Posted 2016-September-15, 11:33

I was one of the people who said earlier that it couldn't be a weak 2-type hand, because they didn't open a weak 2. But now I realize that I'm probably not alone in having some criteria against opening weak 2 with some types of hands, e.g. having a 4-card major or a void, because these could make your hand a fine dummy for partner. With these hands I might pass initially, and then preempt later when the flaw is no longer relevant. I've done this many times.

#34 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2016-September-16, 03:36

One thing that only just occurred to me:

So W bids 3N over 3 and N doubles, E bids what ?

Reflecting on the fact that W has a spade stop which has to be the A and the unlikeliness of either opp holding 5 spades even if it's single, isn't 4 in the frame ?

I suspect 3N-lots and 4-lots are in the frame, but not doubled as the auction could then easily shift to 4.

It's easy to see that 4 might play better than 3N as you might not be able to get to the spades opposite stiff A if partner has Ax/Kx.
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#35 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2016-September-16, 05:34

View PostCyberyeti, on 2016-September-16, 03:36, said:

One thing that only just occurred to me:

So W bids 3N over 3 and N doubles, E bids what ?

Reflecting on the fact that W has a spade stop which has to be the A and the unlikeliness of either opp holding 5 spades even if it's single, isn't 4 in the frame ?

I suspect 3N-lots and 4-lots are in the frame, but not doubled as the auction could then easily shift to 4.

It's easy to see that 4 might play better than 3N as you might not be able to get to the spades opposite stiff A if partner has Ax/Kx.

Maybe East will redouble 3NT, clearly SOS showing spades and diamonds .... West will think that this is business ... and a telephone number ensues. If it was match points it would not matter. Waht was the form of scoring?
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#36 User is offline   weejonnie 

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Posted 2016-September-16, 10:01

View Postlamford, on 2016-September-16, 05:34, said:

Maybe East will redouble 3NT, clearly SOS showing spades and diamonds .... West will think that this is business ... and a telephone number ensues. If it was match points it would not matter. Waht was the form of scoring?

Matchpoints - NS aren't actually going to be damaged but I was wondering whether this case could be one of the 'legitimately fielding a misbid' 'authorised unauthorised panic' cases.
No matter how well you know the laws, there is always something that you'll forget. That is why we have a book.
Get the facts. No matter what people say, get the facts from both sides BEFORE you make a ruling or leave the table.
Remember - just because a TD is called for one possible infraction, it does not mean that there are no others.
In a judgement case - always refer to other TDs and discuss the situation until they agree your decision is correct.
The hardest rulings are inevitably as a result of failure of being called at the correct time. ALWAYS penalize both sides if this happens.
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#37 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2016-September-16, 15:43

I polled this at the club, and some of them when asked what 3 meant said "splinter", one we hadn't considered.
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#38 User is offline   lamford 

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Posted 2016-September-16, 18:06

View PostCyberyeti, on 2016-September-16, 15:43, said:

I polled this at the club, and some of them when asked what 3 meant said "splinter", one we hadn't considered.

Did you ask them why the opponents had not bid the suit with 11 hearts between them?

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#39 User is offline   Cyberyeti 

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Posted 2016-September-16, 18:41

View Postlamford, on 2016-September-16, 18:06, said:

Did you ask them why the opponents had not bid the suit with 11 hearts between them?

Dotty British Uncle: [Renaissance Costume] I gets my brain medicines on the Naational 'ealth! - The Simpsons


That was in abstract before they knew they only had one heart, I asked them what 3 would mean by their agreements without giving them the other hand initially

If that is what they consider the bid to mean, what you mention tells them that a wheel is bouncing down the carriageway
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