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Spade Ace

#1 User is offline   1eyedjack 

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Posted 2016-April-22, 15:09

MP, Instant, 35

Uncharacteristically for me I did not open 1N.

As an aside, how bad a play is the Diamond hook at trick 2? It would of course be pretty awful at IMP, but this is MP. I reckon that the finesse is a bit below 50% because of the lead at trick 1. And when it fails you can be fairly confident of a Spade switch. But the Spade honours need not be split, or there could be a blockage. Or on a rare day they may not play Spade. I felt that these made up for the reduced odds of the finesse. Maybe bad reasoning.

But WHAT a Spade switch! I confess that I had not factored that into my choice. Not a card that I would have chosen.
Psych (pron. saik): A gross and deliberate misstatement of honour strength and/or suit length. Expressly permitted under Law 73E but forbidden contrary to that law by Acol club tourneys.

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Masterminding (pron. mPosted ImagesPosted ImagetPosted Imager-mPosted ImagendPosted Imageing) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees.

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#2 User is online   johnu 

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Posted 2016-April-22, 17:28

At MPs, the diamond finesse is correct. For the 50% when the finesse is off, East will have AK 25%, and West will have AK 25%. So, at worst, playing for overtricks will work ~75%. If GIB East doesn't switch to spades, the odds go up to a lot more than 75%.
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#3 User is offline   robert2734 

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Posted 2016-April-22, 20:38

How often do they wind up playing 3N by you. And the spades are 5-3 and the spade lead off the top sets the contract?
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#4 User is offline   1eyedjack 

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Posted 2016-April-22, 21:47

View Postrobert2734, on 2016-April-22, 20:38, said:

How often do they wind up playing 3N by you. And the spades are 5-3 and the spade lead off the top sets the contract?
Sorry I don't understand the question. Nor what it has to do with East's Spade Ace play at trick 3 that triggered the OP.
Psych (pron. saik): A gross and deliberate misstatement of honour strength and/or suit length. Expressly permitted under Law 73E but forbidden contrary to that law by Acol club tourneys.

Psyche (pron. sahy-kee): The human soul, spirit or mind (derived, personification thereof, beloved of Eros, Greek myth).
Masterminding (pron. mPosted ImagesPosted ImagetPosted Imager-mPosted ImagendPosted Imageing) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees.

"Gentlemen, when the barrage lifts." 9th battalion, King's own Yorkshire light infantry,
2000 years earlier: "morituri te salutant"

"I will be with you, whatever". Blair to Bush, precursor to invasion of Iraq
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#5 User is offline   robert2734 

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Posted 2016-April-23, 03:31

At other tables they could be cashing 4 or 5 spade tricks off the top.
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#6 User is offline   1eyedjack 

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Posted 2016-April-23, 03:39

View Postrobert2734, on 2016-April-23, 03:31, said:

At other tables they could be cashing 4 or 5 spade tricks off the top.
So this argues against d finesse? I take the point
Psych (pron. saik): A gross and deliberate misstatement of honour strength and/or suit length. Expressly permitted under Law 73E but forbidden contrary to that law by Acol club tourneys.

Psyche (pron. sahy-kee): The human soul, spirit or mind (derived, personification thereof, beloved of Eros, Greek myth).
Masterminding (pron. mPosted ImagesPosted ImagetPosted Imager-mPosted ImagendPosted Imageing) tr. v. - Any bid made by bridge player with which partner disagrees.

"Gentlemen, when the barrage lifts." 9th battalion, King's own Yorkshire light infantry,
2000 years earlier: "morituri te salutant"

"I will be with you, whatever". Blair to Bush, precursor to invasion of Iraq
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#7 User is offline   robert2734 

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Posted 2016-April-23, 04:48

If the spades are 5-3 you can lose no more than the diamond finesse and three spade tricks. If the spades are 3-5 , you probably would have gotton a spade lead. If the spades are 4-4, other declarers might have lost 4 spades off the top and just claim the last nine tricks. If the diamond finesse works you beat them and if it loses you probably don't.
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